NBA
NBA · Friday 23 October
Bulls vs Bucks Best Pick, Prediction and Odds
Bet the Bucks on the moneyline. Our number gives Milwaukee at home 57.3%; the price gives them 51.1%.
The Chicago Bulls are -105 and the Milwaukee Bucks -115 at DraftKings. With the margin out, that is 48.9% for Chicago and 51.1% for Milwaukee. Last season’s home and road records put Milwaukee 6.2 points higher than the market does. We bet at 5.
How 57.3% is reached
Our home win chance is the average of two 2025-26 regular-season rates: the home team’s win rate in its own arena and the visitor’s loss rate on the road. Neutral-site games are in neither half. Neither team played one.
The Bucks went 19-22 at Fiserv Forum, a 46.3% home win rate over 41 games. The Bulls went 13-28 on the road and lost 28 of 41, a 68.3% road loss rate. The midpoint is 57.3% for Milwaukee and 42.7% for Chicago.
The margin is the extra a book builds into both prices so the pair adds up to more than 100%. At -115 and -105 the pair adds up to 104.7%. Once that is removed, the Bucks are 51.1% and the Bulls 48.9%.
The bet rests on the second rate. Milwaukee lost more than it won at home, and our number still favours them because Chicago lost 68.3% of its road games. A team under .500 in its own arena is a thin base to lean on. The gap clears the threshold anyway.
Both teams opened 2026-27 with a road loss on Wednesday 21 October. The Bucks lost 128-116 at Washington. The Bulls lost 135-92 at Toronto. Our number reads 2025-26 only, so neither game is in it. Rosters change over a summer and the number does not see that either. That is the main risk in this bet.
Milwaukee at home, Chicago on the road
At home the Bucks scored 114.2 points a game and allowed 118.2, a deficit of 4.0. The Bulls on the road scored 117.7 and allowed 124.4, a deficit of 6.7.
The halves the method leaves out: Milwaukee on the road went 13-28, scoring 107.1 and allowing 115.5. Chicago at home went 18-23, scoring 114.9 and allowing 118.6. The two road records are identical, 13-28 each. Only Chicago’s is in our number.
The season around it
The Bucks finished 32-50 and 11th in the East, outscored by 6.2 points a game (110.6 for, 116.8 against). The Bulls finished 31-51 and 12th, outscored by 5.2 a game (116.3 for, 121.5 against). Neither made the playoffs.
In games decided by 5 points or fewer, Chicago went 13-9 and Milwaukee 9-8. Twenty-two and seventeen games are too few for either record to mean much. Both teams lost 33 games by 10 or more. Milwaukee won 19 by 10 or more, Chicago 13.
The Bucks won three of the four games between them. In Milwaukee, the Bucks won 126-110 on 7 November 2025 and 131-115 on 3 February 2026. Those games are in our number: two of the Bucks’ 41 home games and two of the Bulls’ 41 road games. In Chicago, the Bucks won 112-103 on 27 December 2025 and the Bulls won 120-97 on 1 March 2026. Those are in neither half.
Pick: Bucks -115
Bet the Bucks on the moneyline at -115. The gap is 6.2 points toward Milwaukee, against a threshold of 5.
The line read Bucks -115 and Bulls -105 on 22 October 2026 at 20:59 UTC, DraftKings via ESPN. It opened at -110 on both sides, 50.0% each with the margin out. Since the opening the market has moved 1.1 points toward Milwaukee.
What kills the bet
A shorter Milwaukee price. At -109 or longer the Bucks are a bet whatever Chicago is priced at. With the Bulls at -105, the Bucks stay a bet down to -128. Past that, pass.
For the Bulls to become the bet, they would have to reach +209 against the current Bucks price, or +165 or longer whatever Milwaukee is priced at. They are -105.
ESPN’s game page, read 22 October 2026 at 20:59 UTC, lists five Bulls as day-to-day: Dailyn Swain (illness), Jordan Hawkins (illness), Zach Collins (quadriceps), Tobe Awaka (knee) and Josh Giddey (wrist). The Bucks have no one listed. Our method does not use the injury list, so it does not change the number. Check the lineups before you bet.
The total and the spread
The total is 237.5, over -110 and under -110. The Bucks’ home games went over 237.5 in 15 of 41, the Bulls’ road games in 22 of 41. Milwaukee’s home games averaged 232.4 points, Chicago’s road games 242.1. Over the full season, 20 of the Bucks’ 82 games went over this line and 38 of the Bulls’ 82.
That is 36.6% and 53.7%, an average of 45.1% for the over. The market prices the over at 50.0%, so our count leans to the under by 4.9 points. That is under the threshold of 5, and our method stakes the moneyline only. Pass.
The spread is Bucks -1.5 at -105 and Bulls +1.5 at -115, unchanged from the opening. Milwaukee covered -1.5 in 18 of 41 home games. Chicago covered +1.5 in 14 of 41 road games. Averaged, Bucks -1.5 lands 54.9% of the time against 48.9% priced, a gap of 6.0 points. That is a lean on the same side, not a second bet. One bet on this game: the Bucks at -115.
Bulls at Bucks, Friday 23 October, 4:00 PM ET, Fiserv Forum, Milwaukee. Prices: DraftKings via ESPN, read 22 October 2026, 20:59 UTC. Results: ESPN, 2025-26 regular season and playoffs. 2026-27 results and injury list: ESPN’s game page, read 22 October 2026, 20:59 UTC.