NBA
SpreadTotalMoneyWSH+1.5U 245.5-105CHI-1.5O 245.5-115
NBA · Saturday 24 October
Wizards vs Bulls Best Pick, Prediction and Odds
Bet the Bulls on the moneyline. Last season’s home and road records give Chicago 64.6%, and the price gives them 51.1%.
The Washington Wizards at Chicago Bulls is priced Bulls -115 and Wizards -105 at DraftKings. With the margin out, that is 51.1% for Chicago and 48.9% for Washington. Our number puts Chicago 13.5 points higher than the market. We bet at 5.
How 64.6% is reached
Our home win chance is the average of two 2025-26 regular-season rates: the home team’s win rate in its own arena and the visitor’s loss rate on the road. Neutral-site games sit in neither half, and neither team played one.
The Bulls went 18-23 at the United Center, a 43.9% home win rate. The Wizards went 6-35 on the road, an 85.4% road loss rate over 41 games. The midpoint is 64.6% for Chicago and 35.4% for Washington.
The margin is the extra a book builds into both prices so the pair adds to more than 100%. At -115 and -105 the pair comes to 104.7%. With the margin taken out, the Bulls are 51.1% and the Wizards 48.9%.
The market prices this as a coin flip. The weaker half of our number is still Chicago’s: a losing home record of 18-23. Washington’s road record carries the case, and 6-35 is a full season of road games, 41 of them.
This season so far
Both teams are 1-1 in 2026-27. The Bulls won 132-125 at the Milwaukee Bucks on Friday 23 October. The Wizards lost 112-102 to the Toronto Raptors the same night.
Neither team has played this situation yet: Chicago is 0-0 at home and Washington 0-0 on the road. Our number reads 2025-26 only. These two games are outside it, and so is every roster change made over the summer. That is the main risk in this bet.
Chicago at home, Washington on the road
At home the Bulls scored 114.9 points a game and allowed 118.6, a margin of -3.7. On the road the Wizards scored 112.1 and allowed 125.2, a margin of -13.1. Those are the two halves the method uses.
The method leaves out the other two halves. Washington went 11-30 at home, scoring 113.7 and allowing 124.5, a margin of -10.8. Chicago went 13-28 on the road, scoring 117.7 and allowing 124.4, a margin of -6.7.
The season around it
The Bulls finished 31-51, 12th in the Eastern Conference, with a point difference of -5.2 a game (116.3 scored, 121.5 allowed). The Wizards finished 17-65, 15th, at -12.0 a game (112.9 scored, 124.9 allowed). Neither team made the playoffs.
The margins split the same way. Chicago won 13 games by 10 or more and lost 33 by that much. Washington won 8 by 10 or more and lost 51. In close games, decided by 5 points or fewer, the Bulls went 13-9 and the Wizards 5-9. Chicago played 2 overtime games and Washington 3.
The Bulls won all three meetings. In Chicago they won 121-120 on Saturday 22 November 2025. That game is in our number: one of the Bulls’ 41 home games and one of the Wizards’ 41 road games. In Washington the Bulls won 129-98 on Tuesday 7 April 2026 and 119-108 on Thursday 9 April 2026. Those two are in neither half.
Pick: Bulls -115
Bet the Bulls on the moneyline at -115. The gap is 13.5 points toward Chicago, against a threshold of 5.
The line read Bulls -115 and Wizards -105 on 24 October 2026 at 13:02 UTC, DraftKings via ESPN. It opened at -110 on both sides, a 50.0% split. Since the opening, the market has moved toward Chicago and now gives the Bulls 1.1 points more.
What kills the bet
A shorter Chicago price ends the bet. At -147 or longer the Bulls are a bet whatever Washington is priced at. With the Wizards at -105, Chicago stays a bet down to -311.
For the Wizards to become the bet, their price would have to reach +229 or longer whatever Chicago is priced at. Against the Bulls at -115, they would need +328 or longer. They are -105.
ESPN’s injury list for the game, read 24 October 2026 at 13:02 UTC, has Nic Claxton (hamstring) out for Chicago. For Washington it has Tristan Vukcevic (hip) and Jamir Watkins (knee) out, and AJ Dybantsa (ankle) day-to-day. The list does not change our number. Check the lineups before you bet.
The total and the spread
The total is 245.5, over -108 and under -112. The Bulls’ home games went over 245.5 in 11 of 41, a 26.8% rate. The Wizards’ road games went over in 13 of 41, or 31.7%. Across all 82 games, Chicago’s went over 25 times and Washington’s 28 times. Bulls home games averaged 233.5 points and Wizards road games 237.3.
The two rates average to 29.3% for the over. With the margin out, the market prices the over at 49.6% and the under at 50.4%. That puts our count 20.3 points toward the under. Our method stakes the moneyline only, so this is a lean, not a bet.
The spread is Bulls -1.5 at -105 and Wizards +1.5 at -115. It opened Bulls +1.5 and Wizards -1.5. Chicago beat this line in 17 of 41 home games, and Washington beat it in 7 of 41 road games. Averaged, Bulls -1.5 lands 62.2% of the time against 48.9% priced, a gap of 13.3 points on Chicago’s side. That is a lean on the same side, not a second bet. One bet on this game: the Bulls at -115.
Wizards at Bulls, Saturday 24 October, 8:00 PM ET, United Center, Chicago. Prices: DraftKings via ESPN, read 24 October 2026, 13:02 UTC. Results: ESPN, 2025-26 regular season and playoffs. 2026-27 records, results and injury list: ESPN’s game page, read 24 October 2026, 13:02 UTC.