Knicks vs Bulls Best Pick, Prediction and Odds

Bet the Bulls at +220. Our number gives Chicago at home 45.1%; the price gives them 30.0%.

The New York Knicks are -270 and the Chicago Bulls +220 at DraftKings. With the margin out, that is 70.0% for New York and 30.0% for Chicago. Last season’s home and road records put Chicago 15.1 points higher than the market. We bet at 5.

How 45.1% is reached

Our home win chance is the average of two 2025-26 regular-season rates: the home team’s win rate in its own arena and the visitor’s loss rate on the road. Games at a neutral site are in neither half. The Knicks played one; the Bulls played none.

The Bulls went 18-23 at the United Center, a 43.9% home win rate over 41 games. The Knicks went 22-19 on the road and lost 19 of 41, a 46.3% road loss rate. The average is 45.1% for Chicago and 54.9% for New York.

The margin is the extra a book builds into both prices so the pair comes to more than 100%. At -270 and +220 the two come to 104.2%. Taken out, the Knicks are 70.0% and the Bulls 30.0%.

The 2026-27 season is four games old for both teams, and neither game count is in our number. Both are 1-3. The Bulls lost their only home game and last played on Monday 26 October, a 134-99 loss at the Boston Celtics. The Knicks lost their only road game and beat the Detroit Pistons 111-97 on Tuesday 27 October. Four games prove nothing in either direction. Roster changes over the summer are also outside the method, and that is the main risk in this bet.

Chicago at home, New York on the road

At home the Bulls scored 114.9 points a game and allowed 118.6, a deficit of 3.7. The Knicks on the road scored 113.6 and allowed 111.0, a surplus of 2.6. That is a gap of a few points a game. The price reads it as a mismatch.

The halves the method leaves out are wider apart. New York at home went 30-10, scoring 119.0 and allowing 109.0. Chicago on the road went 13-28, scoring 117.7 and allowing 124.4. Those numbers describe games played in New York and in other teams’ arenas, and this game is in neither.

The season around it

Over the full 2025-26 season the Knicks finished 53-29, the third seed in the Eastern Conference. They scored 116.5 a game and allowed 110.1, a difference of 6.4. In the playoffs they beat the Atlanta Hawks 4-2, the Philadelphia 76ers 4-0, the Cleveland Cavaliers 4-0 and the San Antonio Spurs 4-1.

The Bulls finished 31-51, the twelfth seed, and missed the playoffs. They scored 116.3 and allowed 121.5, a difference of -5.2 a game. They lost by 10 or more 33 times and won by 10 or more 13 times; the Knicks’ counts were 19 and 32. In games decided by 5 points or fewer, Chicago went 13-9 and New York 11-5.

The Knicks won three of the four meetings. In Chicago, the Bulls won 135-125 on 31 October 2025 and the Knicks won 105-99 on 22 February 2026. Those two games are in our number: two of the Bulls’ 41 home games and two of the Knicks’ 41 road games. In New York, the Knicks won 128-116 on 2 November 2025 and 136-96 on 3 April 2026. Those are in neither half.

Pick: Bulls +220

Bet the Bulls on the moneyline at +220. The gap is 15.1 points toward Chicago, against a threshold of 5.

The line read Bulls +220 and Knicks -270 on 28 October 2026 at 13:01 UTC, DraftKings via ESPN. It opened at Bulls +210 and Knicks -258. Since the open the market gives New York 0.9 points more, 70.0% against 69.1%. That is a small move. It makes the Bulls price longer, not shorter.

What kills the bet

A shorter Chicago price. At +150 or longer the Bulls are a bet whatever New York is priced at. With the Knicks at -270, they stay a bet down to +105.

For the Knicks to become the bet, they would have to be priced at +101 or longer whatever the Bulls price, or at +221 or longer against the Bulls at +220. They are -270.

ESPN’s game page, read 28 October 2026 at 13:01 UTC, lists Nic Claxton (hamstring) out and Patrick Williams (groin) and Tobe Awaka (ankle) day-to-day for Chicago. It lists Jose Alvarado (ankle) day-to-day for New York. The list does not change our number. Check the lineups before you bet.

Our number still gives Chicago a 54.9% chance of losing. The case is that +220 pays more than that risk warrants, on last season’s evidence.

The total and the spread

The total is 232.5, over -108 and under -112. The Bulls’ home games went over 232.5 in 20 of 41, a 48.8% rate, and averaged 233.5 points. The Knicks’ road games went over in 13 of 41, a 31.7% rate, and averaged 224.6. Across all 82 games the counts were 46 for Chicago and 29 for New York.

The two home and road rates average 40.2% for the over. With the margin removed the over is priced at 49.6% and the under at 50.4%, so our count leans to the under by 9.3 points. Our method stakes the moneyline only. This is a lean, not a bet.

The spread is Bulls +7.5 at -115 and Knicks -7.5 at -105, unchanged from the open at 7.5. The Bulls at home won, or lost by 7 or fewer, in 22 of 41. The Knicks on the road won by 8 or more in 14 of 41. Averaged, Bulls +7.5 lands 59.8% of the time against 51.1% priced, a gap of 8.7 points. That is a lean on the same side, not a second bet. One bet on this game: the Bulls at +220.

Knicks at Bulls, Wednesday 28 October, 8:00 PM ET, United Center, Chicago. Prices: DraftKings via ESPN, read 28 October 2026, 13:01 UTC. Results: ESPN, 2025-26 regular season and playoffs. 2026-27 records and injury list: ESPN’s game page, read 28 October 2026, 13:01 UTC.