NBA
SpreadTotalMoneyNO+11.5U 240.5+370DEN-11.5O 240.5-485
NBA · Saturday 24 October
Pelicans vs Nuggets Best Pick, Prediction and Odds
Bet the Pelicans at +370. Our number gives New Orleans 26.8% in Denver; the price gives them 20.4%.
The New Orleans Pelicans are +370 and the Denver Nuggets -485 at DraftKings. With the margin out, that is 20.4% for New Orleans and 79.6% for Denver. Last season’s home and road records put the Pelicans 6.4 points higher than the market. We bet at 5.
How 26.8% is reached
Our home win chance is the average of two 2025-26 regular-season rates: the home team’s win rate in its own arena and the visitor’s loss rate on the road. Neutral-site games sit in neither half. Neither team played one.
The Nuggets went 28-13 at Ball Arena, a 68.3% home win rate over 41 games. The Pelicans went 9-32 on the road, a 78.0% road loss rate over 41. The midpoint is 73.2% for Denver and 26.8% for New Orleans.
The margin is the extra a book builds into both prices so the pair adds to more than 100%. At -485 and +370 the two come to 104.2%. Taken out, the Nuggets are 79.6% and the Pelicans 20.4%.
This season so far
Our number reads 2025-26 only. Denver is 0-1 in 2026-27, after a 96-84 loss at Oklahoma City on Thursday 22 October. New Orleans is 0-2, the second loss a 120-119 game at Utah on Friday 23 October, the night before this tip-off.
None of that is in the method. Neither is a summer of roster changes. That is the main risk in this bet: the number describes last season’s teams, and a 26-56 team can be worse a year on.
Denver at home, New Orleans on the road
At home the Nuggets scored 120.8 points a game and allowed 115.2, a margin of 5.6. On the road the Pelicans scored 112.9 and allowed 120.5, a margin of -7.6.
The halves the method leaves out: Denver on the road went 26-15, a 63.4% win rate, scoring 123.3 and allowing 118.6. New Orleans at home went 17-24, scoring 118.2 and allowing 119.5. Neither half enters the number.
The season around it
The Nuggets finished 54-28, third in the West, scoring 122.1 and allowing 116.9 a game, a difference of 5.2. They won 28 games by 10 or more and lost 9 that way. Their playoff run ended in a 4-2 series loss to the Minnesota Timberwolves.
The Pelicans finished 26-56, eleventh in the West, and missed the playoffs. They scored 115.5 and allowed 120.0, a difference of -4.5 a game. They lost 25 games by 10 or more and won 15 that way.
In games decided by 5 points or fewer, Denver went 15-13 and New Orleans 6-13. The Nuggets played 9 overtime games and the Pelicans 5. A close-game record is a thin sample, and we read nothing into it.
Denver won all three meetings. In Denver, the Nuggets won 122-88 on 29 October 2025; that game is in our number, one of Denver’s 41 home games and one of New Orleans’ 41 road games. In New Orleans, the Nuggets won 125-118 on 19 November 2025 and 122-116 on 13 January 2026. Those two are in neither half.
Pick: Pelicans +370
Bet the Pelicans on the moneyline at +370. The gap is 6.4 points toward New Orleans, against a threshold of 5.
The line read Pelicans +370 and Nuggets -485 on 24 October 2026 at 13:02 UTC, DraftKings via ESPN. It opened at the same prices, so it has not moved since opening.
What kills the bet
A shorter New Orleans price. At +358 or longer the Pelicans are a bet whatever Denver is priced at. With the Nuggets at -485, they stay a bet down to +332.
For the Nuggets to become the bet, their price would have to drift to -214 or longer whatever the Pelicans’ price. Against the current Pelicans price of +370, Denver becomes the bet only at +119 or longer.
ESPN’s injury list for the game, read 24 October 2026 at 13:02 UTC, has Spencer Jones (hamstring), Cameron Johnson (ankle) and Julian Strawther (knee) out for Denver, with Alpha Diallo (wrist) day-to-day. New Orleans lists Yves Missi (knee) as day-to-day. The list does not change our number. Check the lineups before you bet.
Our number still gives the Pelicans a 73.2% chance of losing. The case is that +370 pays more than that risk warrants, on last season’s evidence.
The total and the spread
The total is 239.5, over -108 and under -112. The Nuggets’ home games went over 239.5 in 17 of 41 and the Pelicans’ road games in 16 of 41. Denver’s home games averaged 236.0 points and New Orleans’ road games 233.4.
That is 41.5% and 39.0%, an average of 40.2% for the over. With the margin removed the over is priced at 49.6% and the under at 50.4%, so our count leans to the under by 9.3 points. Over the full season the Nuggets went over this line in 45 of 82 and the Pelicans in 30 of 82. Our method stakes the moneyline only, so this is a lean, not a bet.
The spread is Nuggets -11.5 at -105 and Pelicans +11.5 at -115, unchanged from the open. Denver beat that line in 13 of 41 home games. New Orleans beat it in 27 of 41 road games. Averaged, Nuggets -11.5 lands 32.9% of the time against 48.9% priced, a gap of 16.0 points toward Pelicans +11.5. That is a lean on the same side, not a second bet. One bet on this game: the Pelicans at +370.
Pelicans at Nuggets, Saturday 24 October, 9:00 PM ET, Ball Arena, Denver. Prices: DraftKings via ESPN, read 24 October 2026, 13:02 UTC. Results: ESPN, 2025-26 regular season and playoffs. 2026-27 records and injury list: ESPN’s game page, read 24 October 2026, 13:02 UTC.