Toledo Rockets

The Rockets covered 11 of 13 spreads as underdogs in 2025-26; just nine teams in Division I did better getting points. Seven of those covers came in defeats, the last a 79-76 MAC final loss to Akron getting 7.5.

Points, not wins

As an underdog Toledo won 4 of 14 and lost 4.61 units on the moneyline. Against the spread the same games went 11-2. The gap sits in close defeats: 98-97 at Oakland getting 4.5, 87-84 at Kent State getting 5.5, 84-82 at UMass getting 2.5, 74-72 at Miami (OH) getting 7.5, and the final against Akron.

Road games

Away from home Toledo covered 10 of 14, 71.4%; that rate trailed 14 Division I teams and tied five. Straight up it was 5-9 on the road, and the road moneylines lost 4.94. At home it was the reverse: 11-4 straight up, 6 covers in 13.

As favorites

Favored 18 times, the Rockets won 13 and covered 8. Two of the misses opened the season, home losses to South Alabama at -145 and Marshall at -135. The 18 favorite moneylines made 0.3.

The season

Toledo finished 19-15, covered 19 of 31, 61.3%, and only 28 Division I teams covered more often. January brought the most covers, seven in nine. One unit on every priced game, 32 in all, still lost 4.31.

Opponents

Bowling Green was met three times; Toledo won two, the second 77-76 in the MAC quarterfinal. Akron won both meetings, but Toledo covered both. Kent State and Miami (OH) also beat Toledo twice each.

The total

Nineteen unders and 13 overs, 59.4%, with 55 Division I teams going under at a higher rate. Toledo’s own scoring was high all the same, 81.03 points a game, with only 64 teams scoring more. The MAC final against Akron, 79-76 against a total of 157.5, was one of the unders.

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