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Valparaiso Beacons

College Basketball

Backing the Beacons to win at home in 2025-26 made 5.58 units over 16 priced games; nine Division I teams made more. They covered 11 of those 16 home spreads as well.

Home floor

Valparaiso went 13-4 at home in 2025-26. One unit on the Beacons in each of the 16 priced home games returned 5.58 units, a figure only nine Division I teams topped. Against the spread they went 11-5 at home, 68.8%; 28 teams had a better home cover rate and one the same. Home underdog wins included a 77-71 result against Illinois State at +250.

The Beacons at home, away, as favorite and as underdogHome (17)won 13 (76.5%)covered 11 of 16 (68.8%)Away (14)won 4 (28.6%)covered 8 of 14 (57.1%)Favorite (12)won 10 (83.3%)covered 6 of 12 (50.0%)Underdog (20)won 7 (35.0%)covered 13 of 20 (65.0%)50%
2025-26 regular season. Neutral-site games are in neither home nor away. Source: ESPN results and pre-game lines.

On the road they went 4-10 and the moneyline lost 2.50 units over 13 priced games, though they covered 8 of 14. Both neutral-site games came in the Missouri Valley tournament, a win over Indiana State and a loss to Bradley, and both missed the spread.

Favorite and underdog

As favorites the Beacons won 10 of 12, and one unit a game made 3.34 units; 19 Division I teams made more. The two losses: 56-64 at home to Southern Indiana at -535, and 79-80 at Evansville at -238. As underdogs they went 7-13 and covered 13 of 20, a rate 58 teams beat and one matched, with the moneyline close to flat at 0.56 units down over 19 games.

One unit on the Beacons to win, every game0-2+2+4+2.78 unitsfirst gamelast game
Running total over 31 priced 2025-26 regular-season games, at the pre-game moneyline. Source: ESPN results and pre-game lines.

The season

The record finished 18-15 with 19 covers in 32 lined games, 59.4%; 44 teams covered more often, seven at the same rate. Five straight losses, from UNC Wilmington to Southern Illinois, cost 5 units on the moneyline. Over the next ten games, starting with UIC at home, Valparaiso covered eight.

The Beacons 2025-26 regular season, game by game2025-11-04 v Eastern Illinois Panthers 66-632025-11-07 at Kentucky Wildcats 59-1072025-11-12 v Nicholls Colonels 68-632025-11-16 v Bryant Bulldogs 68-502025-11-19 at Cleveland State Vikings 90-752025-11-26 v Southern Indiana Screaming Eagles 56-642025-11-29 v Western Michigan Broncos 84-552025-12-02 at Marquette Golden Eagles 72-752025-12-06 v Calumet St. Joseph Crimson Wave 98-582025-12-13 v UNC Wilmington Seahawks 70-732025-12-16 at Northwestern Wildcats 70-862025-12-21 v Murray State Racers 79-852025-12-29 at Northern Iowa Panthers 48-582026-01-01 at Southern Illinois Salukis 70-752026-01-04 v UIC Flames 66-592026-01-07 v Illinois State Redbirds 77-712026-01-10 at Murray State Racers 79-922026-01-13 at Belmont Bruins 74-782026-01-17 v Northern Iowa Panthers 54-442026-01-21 v Southern Illinois Salukis 69-632026-01-28 v Belmont Bruins 77-782026-01-31 at Indiana State Sycamores 76-722026-02-03 at Bradley Braves 65-722026-02-06 v Evansville Purple Aces 70-632026-02-09 at Drake Bulldogs 81-762026-02-12 at Illinois State Redbirds 64-862026-02-15 v Indiana State Sycamores 76-752026-02-18 v Bradley Braves 79-722026-02-21 at UIC Flames 71-672026-02-25 v Drake Bulldogs 74-712026-02-28 at Evansville Purple Aces 79-802026-03-05 v Indiana State Sycamores 63-622026-03-06 v Bradley Braves 84-90Wins above the line, losses below; bar length is the margincovered the spreaddid not cover0
18-15 in 33 games. Source: ESPN results and pre-game lines.

Missouri Valley opponents

UIC lost both meetings and Valparaiso covered both, for 3.35 units, the second a 71-67 win on the road at +270. Belmont won both games but Valparaiso covered both. Murray State won both and covered both. Indiana State lost all three meetings, yet the Beacons covered only one.

The Beacons against the teams they played mostBradley Braves1-2, covered 2Indiana State Sycamores3-0, covered 1Belmont Bruins0-2, covered 2Drake Bulldogs2-0, covered 2Evansville Purple Aces1-1, covered 0Illinois State Redbirds1-1, covered 1Murray State Racers0-2, covered 0Northern Iowa Panthers1-1, covered 1
2025-26 regular season; dark is wins, light the games played. Source: ESPN results and pre-game lines.

The total

Seventeen overs, 15 unders.

Questions and answers

Is Valparaiso a good bet at home?

In 2025-26: 13-4 straight up, 11 covers in 16, and 5.58 units won backing the Beacons to win.

How did Valparaiso do as a favorite?

10-2 straight up, 6 covers in 12, and a 3.34-unit moneyline profit.

How did Valparaiso do against Indiana State in 2025-26?

Three wins in three meetings, one cover.

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