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WNBA · Wednesday 30 September

Pick the Wings – Valkyries at Wings prediction, odds and best picks

By Marcus ReedsUpdated 29 Sep 2026

My number is Golden State by 1.4 and the market has the Valkyries by 3.5. Take the Wings at +2.5 or longer.

DraftKings has Golden State -3.5 at -115 and Dallas +3.5 at -105, read at 16:40 UTC on 28 September. The gap between my number and that price is 2.1 points. Golden State leads the best-of-three first-round series 1-0 after winning Game 1 104-80 in San Francisco on 27 September. Every figure below comes from the 2026 regular season, so Game 1 is not in any of them.

The number

Both teams finished with a winning record, so my figure takes each side’s games against winning opponents only: Dallas’s home games and Golden State’s road games. Dallas is 4-6 in those ten home games but wins them by 3.0 points on average. Golden State is 7-4 in its eleven road games against winning teams and wins them by 5.8. Half the difference between the two is Golden State by 1.4.

I play a side when my number and the price are at least a point apart. That makes Dallas a bet at +2.5 or longer. Anywhere from Valkyries -2 to Valkyries -0.5 is a pass, and Golden State becomes the bet only at a pick’em or as an underdog.

The spread has not moved from its opening -3.5. The moneyline has, from Golden State -155 to -166, with Dallas out from +130 to +140.

Moneyline implies Valkyries 60.0 percent, Wings 40.0 percentChance to win the game, as pricedValkyries 60.0%Wings 40.0%From DraftKings's moneylines, Valkyries -166 and Wings +140, margin removed.
Source: DraftKings via ESPN, read 2026-09-28 16:40 UTC.

ESPN’s matchup predictor gives Golden State a 58.3% chance to win, against 60.0% in the DraftKings moneyline. It sits close to the market and a little toward Dallas.

Wings at home and Valkyries on the road in 2026Wings at home against Valkyries on the roadPoints scored per gameWings at home 88.8Valkyries on the road 81.9Points allowed per gameWings at home 79.7Valkyries on the road 75.6RecordWings at home 16-6Valkyries on the road 15-7
Source: ESPN results, read 28 September 2026; every final checked against Nucleus where Nucleus holds the game. Games ESPN marks as neutral-site are left out of both.

The samples

A 4-6 split with a positive margin usually means one big game, and here it does. Dallas beat Las Vegas 96-66 at home on 15 June, a 30-point margin. Take it away and Dallas’s home figure against winning teams is 0.0, which moves my number to Golden State by 2.9. Against a line of 3.5, that is a pass.

Five of Dallas’s six losses in that set were by eight points or fewer. The other was the 94-76 loss to Golden State on 7 August.

Golden State’s eleven road games against winning teams run from a 19-point win at New York on 27 August to a 19-point loss at Las Vegas on 21 June. The Valkyries figure is sound. The Dallas figure is one blowout sitting on a losing record, so this is a bet by the method and a thin one.

The season series

Golden State won all three regular-season meetings: 91-80 at home on 17 June, 94-76 in Dallas on 7 August, and 78-70 at home on 17 August.

2026 point margin in every game, Wings and Valkyries2026 regular season: point margin in every gameWings27-17, +4.1 a gameValkyries32-12, +7.0 a gameColoured bars are wins, grey bars are losses, oldest game on the left.
Source: ESPN results, read 28 September 2026; every final checked against Nucleus where Nucleus holds the game.

The 18-point win in Dallas is one of the ten home games in my Dallas number, and it is already counted against the Wings. Three meetings, all one way, still runs against this pick, which is why it is stated rather than left out.

Form

Dallas went 7-3 over its last ten regular-season games, winning by 8.9 a game, including six straight home wins, by 5 to 26 points, from 20 August to 19 September. It closed with a one-point loss at Phoenix on 21 September and a 12-point win at Seattle on 23 September.

Golden State also went 7-3, winning by 8.3 a game. Its last two were an 8-point loss at Portland on 22 September and a 76-75 win at Los Angeles on 24 September.

Last ten games for Wings and ValkyriesThe last ten games, margin in eachWings7-3, +8.9 a game-11-8+6+22+18+26+20+5-1+12Valkyries7-3, +8.3 a game-11-3+14+25+19+17+16+13-8+1Coloured bars are wins, grey bars are losses, oldest game on the left.
Source: ESPN results, read 28 September 2026; every final checked against Nucleus where Nucleus holds the game.

Both teams played Game 1 on 27 September, so neither carries a rest edge into Wednesday.

The total

DraftKings has the total at 155.5, up from 154.5 at the open, with -110 on both sides. My method prices the side only, so the total is not a bet here. Dallas’s games have a median total of 173 this season and Golden State’s have 162. Dallas went over 155.5 in 38 of its 44 games; Golden State did in 25 of 44.

2026 game totals for Wings and Valkyries2026: total points in every game, against this game's 155.5110120130140150160170180190200210220230155.5Wingsmedian 173Valkyriesmedian 162Each dot is one 2026 regular-season game. Dots stack where games had the same total.
Source: ESPN results, read 28 September 2026; every final checked against Nucleus where Nucleus holds the game. The line: DraftKings via ESPN, read 2026-09-28 16:40 UTC.

The three meetings landed at 171, 170 and 148. That is a count, not a model, and without a number of my own there is no bet on the total.

Pick: Wings +3.5

Pick: Dallas Wings +3.5, playable to +2.5. My number is Golden State by 1.4. Price read at DraftKings, 28 September 2026 at 16:40 UTC.

What would change it: a line of Valkyries -2 or shorter is a pass, and a pick’em or Golden State as an underdog makes the Valkyries the bet. This piece carries no injury information and none is claimed; a reported change to either starting lineup would also change the call.

Golden State Valkyries at Dallas Wings, Wednesday 30 September 2026, 9:00 PM ET, College Park Center. Game 2 of a best-of-three first-round series. Results: ESPN, read 28 September 2026, regular season only, each final checked against Nucleus where Nucleus holds the game; Nucleus has not yet added Golden State’s or Dallas’s games against Portland Fire, so those three rest on ESPN alone, and Golden State’s 92-81 win over Toronto on 4 August follows ESPN’s box score where Nucleus records 92-82. Line and moneyline: DraftKings via ESPN, read 28 September 2026 at 16:40 UTC. Every WNBA game: WNBA predictions.