CFB
SpreadTotalMoneySYR-7U 50.5-265CONN+7O 50.5+215
CFB · Saturday 3 October
Syracuse at UConn Final Score: Syracuse Win 42-41 in Overtime
Final: Syracuse Orange 42, UConn Huskies 41 in overtime, Saturday 3 October at Pratt & Whitney Stadium.
Our call won. Before the game this page said: “Our number has UConn by 15.5. At +6, take UConn.” UConn +6 won: UConn lost by 1.
What decided it
Syracuse won the second quarter by 14, and the game went to overtime. Syracuse turned the ball over 2 times to UConn’s 2, and gained 509 yards to 499.
| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | OT | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Syracuse Orange | 6 | 21 | 7 | 0 | 8 | 42 |
| UConn Huskies | 7 | 7 | 6 | 14 | 7 | 41 |
The last DraftKings line ESPN holds for the game is SYR -6.5, with a total of 51.5. Syracuse did not cover as the favourite. The 83 points went over the total.
What comes next
Syracuse plays next against the SMU Mustangs on Saturday 31 October. UConn plays next at the Air Force Falcons on Saturday 31 October.
The prediction, as published before the game
Everything below is the page as it stood before the game, kept unchanged as the record. It was titled “Syracuse at UConn Best Pick, Prediction and Odds”.
Our number has UConn by 15.5. At +6, take UConn.
Syracuse is a 6-point favourite at UConn at DraftKings, down from 6.5 at the open. Our number has UConn winning by 15.5. The gap is 21.5 points, and the threshold for a bet here is 3.
How the number is built
The method is one clause: our number is half the difference between the home team’s average margin at home and the visitor’s average margin on the road, against FBS teams only, 2025 and 2026 together.
UConn is 5-1 at home against FBS teams over that span, winning by 9.2 points a game across 6 games. Syracuse is 1-5 on the road against FBS teams, losing by 21.7 a game across 6 games. The difference is 30.9 points. Half of it is 15.45, which rounds to 15.5.
A gap of 21.5 points is large enough to be suspicious of. The method does not adjust for who the opponent was, and on this game that matters.
Syracuse on the road
Syracuse’s six road games against FBS teams were at Clemson, SMU, Georgia Tech, Miami and Notre Dame in 2025, and at Pittsburgh on 17 September. It won the first, 34-21. It lost the other five: 31-18, 41-16, 38-10, 70-7 and 27-13.
The 70-7 loss at Notre Dame carries a lot of that average. Without it, the other five average a 13.4-point loss.
UConn at home
UConn’s six home games against FBS teams: 31-25 over Ball State, 51-10 over Florida International, 38-19 over UAB, 37-34 over Duke and 26-16 over Air Force in 2025, then a 38-14 loss to Maryland on 12 September.
The 51-10 game is UConn’s version of the same problem. Without it, the other five average a 2.8-point win. Take out both outliers and our number is UConn by 8.1, against a line of UConn +6. That is still a gap of 14.1.
2026 so far
UConn is 2-2 as an independent. It beat Lafayette 56-7, a team outside the FBS, lost 38-14 to Maryland, won 48-20 at Southern Miss, then lost 24-21 at Miami (OH) last Saturday. Against FBS teams it has scored 27.7 a game and allowed 27.3.
Syracuse is 1-2 and 0-2 in the ACC, and has played three games. It beat New Hampshire 66-3, a team outside the FBS, lost 21-18 to California, then lost 27-13 at Pittsburgh. Against FBS teams it has scored 15.5 and allowed 24.0.
Last season
UConn went 9-4 in 2025, won by 8.3 a game and went 6-0 at home. It closed with a 41-16 loss to Army on 27 December. Syracuse went 3-9 and lost by 14.8 a game.
The teams met on 6 September 2025 at Syracuse, which won 27-20.
The price
UConn opened at +6.5 and is +6 now, read 28 September 2026 at 17:02 UTC at DraftKings via ESPN. UConn +6 is priced at -108, Syracuse -6 at -112.
The moneyline moved the other way. It has Syracuse at -245 and UConn at +200, from -205 and +170 at the open. With the margin removed, that prices Syracuse to win 68.1% of the time. ESPN’s FPI has Syracuse at 70.9%.
The market and FPI agree with each other and disagree with us by 21.5 points of margin.
Pick: UConn +6
UConn +6 at -108. The gap is 21.5 points against a 3-point threshold.
It rests on 12 games, split 6 and 6. The market disagrees by 21.5 points, and the pick stays with the method.
What changes it
The bet stands up to UConn -12.5, where the gap is 3.0. At UConn -13 it is 2.5, and the call becomes a pass. That is 18.5 points of movement away.
Availability is the other thing, and this page does not state it. Check the injury report before you bet.
The total
The total opened at 53.5 and is 51.5 now, over -115 and under -105.
Against FBS teams across 2025 and 2026, UConn’s games went over 51.5 in 11 of 15, and Syracuse’s in 4 of 13. Last season’s meeting produced 47 points.
Pass on the total at 51.5. The two samples point in opposite directions, and by a wide margin each.
Schedules and results for both teams: Syracuse Orange and UConn Huskies. Every game this week is on our college football predictions page.
Syracuse at UConn, Saturday 3 October, 12:00 PM ET, Pratt & Whitney Stadium, East Hartford. Prices: DraftKings via ESPN, read 28 September 2026, 17:02 UTC. Results: ESPN, read 28 September 2026. Nothing here states who is available.