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UTSA vs Tulane Best Pick, Prediction and Odds

By Grant WellerUpdated 23 Oct 2026

Our number has Tulane by 10.6. At +3, take Tulane.

UTSA at Tulane kicks off Saturday 24 October at 8:00 PM ET at Yulman Stadium in New Orleans, in the American Conference. DraftKings has UTSA as a 3-point favorite. Our number has Tulane by 10.6. The gap is 13.6 points toward Tulane, and the threshold for a bet is 3.

The prices

DraftKings has UTSA -3 at -102 and Tulane +3 at -118, read 24 October 2026 at 00:16 UTC. The line opened at Tulane +4. The move is one point, and nothing here says what drove it.

Tulane opened +4 and is +3 nowTulane's line, from the open to nowpickopen +4now +3Negative numbers mean Tulane is giving points. The line has moved 1 point toward Tulane.
Prices: DraftKings via ESPN, read 2026-10-24 00:16 UTC.

On the moneyline UTSA is -142 and Tulane +120. A book builds in a margin, an extra that makes the two prices add to more than 100%. With the margin removed, the market gives UTSA a 56.3% chance to win and Tulane 43.7%. ESPN’s FPI has it the other way, with Tulane at 58.9% and UTSA at 41.1%. Neither figure is in our number.

How Tulane by 10.6 is reached

Our number is half the difference between the home team’s average margin at home and the visitor’s average margin on the road. It counts games against FBS teams only, across 2025 and 2026 together, and leaves out bowl and playoff games as neutral.

Tulane is 10-0 at home against FBS teams over that span, winning by 11.3 points a game. UTSA is 4-5 on the road against FBS teams, losing by 9.9 a game. Half the difference is 10.6 points in Tulane’s favor, against a market that has Tulane getting 3.

Moneyline implies UTSA 56.3 percent, Tulane 43.7 percentChance to win the game, as pricedUTSA 56.3%Tulane 43.7%From DraftKings's moneylines, UTSA -142 and Tulane +120, margin removed.
Source: DraftKings via ESPN, read 2026-10-24 00:16 UTC.

The samples are 10 games for Tulane and 9 for UTSA. The rule sets a minimum of 4 games in each and gives no bet below it. Both clear it.

Tulane at home, UTSA on the road

Tulane went 7-0 at home in 2025. This season it beat South Alabama 28-24 on 12 September, Southern Miss 24-21 on 26 September and Memphis 31-17 on 16 October. The first two were close, and the unbeaten home record is carrying more weight than those two scores would suggest on their own.

UTSA went 2-4 on the road in 2025. This season it won 31-26 at Texas State on 12 September, lost 30-6 at Texas on 19 September and won 16-14 at Rice on 3 October.

The method leaves out the other two halves. Tulane lost 17-3 at Duke, 31-20 at Kansas State and 20-17 at Army this season, after a 4-3 road record in 2025. UTSA is 4-0 at home this season and went 4-2 at home in 2025. Both halves favor UTSA, and neither is in our number.

This season so far

None of what follows is in the method. Tulane is 3-3 and 1-1 in conference, all six games against FBS teams. It has scored 20.5 points a game and allowed 21.7, a margin of -1.2.

UTSA is 6-1, 3-0 in conference, on a four-game winning streak. Against FBS teams it is 5-1 with a margin of +1.3. Its other win was 45-16 over UT Rio Grande Valley, a team outside the FBS. Its last game was a 38-34 win over Navy on 17 October.

2026 point margin in every game, Tulane and UTSA2026: point margin in every game so farTulane3-3, -1.2 a game-14+4-11+3-3+14UTSA6-1, +5.3 a game+29+5-24+14+2+7+4Coloured bars are wins, dark grey losses, light grey games against teams outside the FBS.
Source: ESPN results, read 23 October 2026; cross-checked with Nucleus for games up to its 11 October pull.

On this season’s FBS games UTSA has the better margin. That agrees with the market more than with our number.

Last season and the meeting

Tulane went 11-3 in 2025, scoring 27.7 points a game and allowing 23.9, a margin of +3.8. It lost 41-10 at Ole Miss on 20 December 2025, a postseason game the method leaves out. UTSA went 7-6, 6-6 against FBS teams, with a margin of +6.7 from 35.5 scored and 28.8 allowed. It beat Florida International 57-20 at a neutral site on 26 December 2025, also left out.

2025 point margin in every game, Tulane and UTSA2025: point margin in every game, bowls and playoffs includedTulane11-3, +3.8 a game+20+2+7-35+17+7+7-22+6+11+24+27+13-31UTSA7-6, +6.7 a game-18-7+28+1-6+48-38+22-32+21+34-3+37Oldest game on the left. Light grey bars are games against teams outside the FBS.
Source: ESPN results, read 23 October 2026.

The teams met once in the span. UTSA won 48-26 on 30 October 2025, at UTSA. That was a UTSA home game, so the method does not use it.

Pick: Tulane +3

Tulane +3 at -118 at DraftKings, read 24 October 2026 at 00:16 UTC. The line opened at Tulane +4. The gap is 13.6 points against a 3-point threshold.

The bet rests on 10 Tulane home games and 9 UTSA road games. Tulane’s side is the dearer one, -118 against -102 for UTSA.

What kills the bet

The line. Tulane stays the bet at Tulane -7.6 or better for Tulane. UTSA would be the bet only at UTSA +13.6 or better.

The risk is this season. UTSA is 6-1, Tulane is 3-3, and Tulane scored 3, 20 and 17 in its three road games. Our number trusts two seasons of home and road splits over seven weeks of form, and Tulane’s 10-0 home record is what holds it up.

The ESPN game page, read 24 October 2026 at 00:16 UTC, carried no injury entries for either team. Check the lineups before you bet.

The total and the moneyline

The total is 51.5, up from 50.5 at the open, with the over and the under both at -110. Against FBS teams across 2025 and 2026, Tulane’s games went over in 8 of 20 and UTSA’s in 12 of 18.

This season Tulane’s six games produced 20, 52, 51, 45, 37 and 48 points. UTSA’s six FBS games produced 57, 36, 104, 30, 55 and 72.

Game totals for Tulane and UTSA against 51.5Total points in every game against FBS teams, 2025 and 2026, against this game's 51.5203040506070809010011051.5Tulane8 of 20 over 51.5UTSA12 of 18 over 51.5Each dot is one game against an FBS team. Dots stack where games had the same total.
Source: ESPN results, read 23 October 2026; cross-checked with Nucleus for games up to its 11 October pull. The line: DraftKings via ESPN, read 2026-10-24 00:16 UTC.

No bet on the total. The method stakes the spread, and the over counts are counts. The moneyline is context only: Tulane +120 is on the same side as the pick, and the bet is Tulane +3.

UTSA at Tulane, Saturday 24 October, 8:00 PM ET, Yulman Stadium, New Orleans. Prices: DraftKings via ESPN, read 24 October 2026, 00:16 UTC. Results: ESPN, 2025 and 2026 seasons, checked against Nucleus. Rankings: AP Poll, Week 8, 2026. Injuries: ESPN game page, read 24 October 2026, 00:16 UTC.