Flames vs Ducks Best Pick, Prediction and Odds

Calgary went 11-26-4 on the road last season. Take the Ducks to win at Honda Center.

Our number makes Anaheim a 65.9% winner. DraftKings’ price, with the margin out, says 58.3%. That 7.6-point gap clears our 5-point threshold, and it is the whole argument for the bet on the Calgary Flames at Anaheim Ducks, Sunday 15 November, 8:00 PM ET.

Flames and Ducks this season

The Ducks are 10-8-1, 3-5-1 at home. They won 4 of their last 5: 5-4 at Vancouver on 3 November, 5-4 at Edmonton on 5 November, 5-3 at Calgary on 6 November and 5-2 against Pittsburgh on 8 November. Then they lost 4-2 at home to Nashville on Wednesday 11 November.

Anaheim scores 3.74 goals a game and allows 3.68. Its power play converts at 36.8% and its penalty kill stops 74.0%. Cutter Gauthier leads the team with 16 goals, Jackson LaCombe with 21 assists and Leo Carlsson with 26 points. In goal, Lukas Dostal has played 10 games with a .866 save percentage and a 3.76 goals-against average; Ville Husso has played 6, at .868 and 3.55.

The Flames are 8-10-1, 2-5-1 on the road. They won 2 of their last 5: 2-1 at San Jose on 2 November and 4-3 in overtime against Philadelphia on 8 November. The losses were 2-1 in overtime at Seattle, 5-3 at home to these Ducks on 6 November, and 3-1 at home to the New York Rangers on Wednesday 11 November.

Calgary scores 2.47 a game and allows 3.47. Its power play runs at 29.5%, its penalty kill at 81.4%. Joel Farabee leads with 7 goals and 17 points, Matt Coronato with 11 assists. Dustin Wolf has played 10 games, at .869 and 3.75. Devin Cooley has played 9, at .914 and 2.63.

ESPN’s injury list has Ryan Poehling (knee), Ian Moore (lower body) and A.J. Greer (upper body) on injured reserve for Anaheim. For Calgary, Jonathan Huberdeau (hip) and Kevin Bahl (Achilles) are on injured reserve and Connor Zary (knee) is out. None of this season’s figures is in our number.

The prices

The Ducks are -155 and the Flames +130 at DraftKings, read 14 November 2026 at 17:33 UTC. Those two prices add up to 104.3%. The extra above 100% is the margin, the cut a book builds into both sides. Taken out, the market has Anaheim at 58.3% and Calgary at 41.7%.

Both prices opened where they are now. The market’s chance for each side has not moved since opening.

Pick: Ducks -155

Bet the Ducks on the moneyline at -155. Our number is 65.9% against the market’s 58.3%, a gap of 7.6 points. The threshold for a bet is 5.

Price: DraftKings via ESPN, read 14 November 2026, 17:33 UTC. It opened at -155, with Calgary at +130.

How 65.9% is reached

Our home win chance is the average of two 2025-26 rates: the home team’s win rate in its own arena and the visitor’s loss rate on the road. Overtime and shootout wins count as wins. Neutral-site games are left out.

The Ducks went 24-13-4 at Honda Center, a 58.5% home win rate. The Flames went 11-26-4 on the road, a 73.2% road loss rate. The average puts Anaheim at 65.9% and Calgary at 34.1%.

A second rule sits on top: no bet on any side the market gives under 40%. The method has no adjustment for the strength of the opponent, and on underdogs its number has run above what the teams then did. That rule does not touch this game’s call.

The halves left out: Calgary at home went 23-13-5, a 56.1% win rate. Anaheim on the road went 19-20-2, 46.3%. In the halves the method uses, the Ducks at home scored 3.54 and allowed 3.49, a surplus of 0.05, while the Flames on the road scored 2.24 and allowed 3.71, a deficit of 1.47.

The season around it

Anaheim finished 2025-26 at 43-33-6 with 92 points, outscored by 15. It beat Edmonton 4-2 in the first round of the playoffs and lost its series with Vegas 2-4. Calgary went 34-39-9 with 77 points, was outscored by 47, and missed the playoffs.

Anaheim was strong in close games: 24-6-6 in one-goal games, and 17 wins in the 23 that went past regulation. Calgary went 14-6-9 in one-goal games and won 7 of its 16 past 60 minutes. The Ducks won by two or more 19 times in 82 games. The Flames lost by two or more 33 times.

The Ducks won the first three meetings last season, all after regulation: 4-3 in overtime in Calgary on 25 January, 3-2 in a shootout in Anaheim on 1 March, and 3-2 in overtime in Calgary on 26 March. The Flames won the last, 5-3 in Anaheim on 4 April. The two games at Honda Center are in both halves of our number. The two in Calgary are in neither.

What kills the bet

A longer Anaheim price. At -156 or longer the Ducks are a bet whatever Calgary is priced at. Against the Flames at +130, the Ducks stay a bet down to -211.

The Flames cannot become the bet. At any price where our gap would favour them, the market gives them under 40%, and the long-shot rule makes that no bet.

The rest is on the ice. Calgary is 8-10-1 and Anaheim has won 4 of 5, but none of that moves our number. The injury lists above are as ESPN printed them at 17:33 UTC on 14 November, and neither names a goalie. Check the lineups before you bet.

The total and the puck line

The total is 6.5, over -135 and under +114. The Ducks’ games went over in 49 of 82, a 59.8% rate. The Flames’ went over in 29 of 82, 35.4%. Anaheim’s home games averaged 7.03 goals; Calgary’s road games averaged 5.95.

Averaged, the over lands 47.6% of the time. The market, margin out, prices it at 55.1% and the under at 44.9%, so our number leans to the under by 7.6 points. Our method stakes the moneyline only. The under is a lean, not a bet.

On the puck line, Anaheim is -1.5 at +145 and Calgary +1.5 at -175, which is 39.1% and 60.9% without the margin. Ducks -1.5 lands 31.7% of the time on our method, 7.4 points below the price. Our number has Anaheim winning more often than the market says, and by two goals or more less often. Do not lay the -1.5. One bet on this game: the Ducks at -155.

Flames at Ducks, Sunday 15 November, 8:00 PM ET, Honda Center. Prices: DraftKings via ESPN, read 14 November 2026, 17:33 UTC. Results: ESPN, 2025-26 regular season and playoffs. This season’s records, team figures, scoring leaders, goalie figures and injury lists: ESPN’s game page, read 14 November 2026, 17:33 UTC.