NHL
NHL · Sunday 15 November
Oilers vs Flyers Best Pick, Prediction and Odds
Bet the Flyers at +130. Our number makes Philadelphia a 51.2% winner at home, and the price says 41.7%.
The Edmonton Oilers at Philadelphia Flyers is priced Flyers +130 and Oilers -155 at DraftKings. With the margin out, that is 41.7% for Philadelphia and 58.3% for Edmonton. The market has the visitors as a clear favourite. Our number has this close to even, with the Flyers slightly ahead. The gap is 9.5 points toward Philadelphia.
How 51.2% is reached
Our home win chance is the average of two 2025-26 rates: the home team’s win rate in its own arena and the visitor’s loss rate on the road. Overtime and shootout wins count as wins. Neutral-site games are left out of both splits.
The Flyers went 20-13-8 at home last season, a 48.8% home win rate. The Oilers went 19-16-6 on the road, a 53.7% road loss rate. Average the two and Philadelphia is 51.2%, Edmonton 48.8%. Against the price, that is 9.5 points better for the Flyers.
The margin is the extra a book builds into both prices so the pair comes to more than 100%. At +130 and -155 the pair comes to 104.3%. Taken out, the Flyers are 41.7% and the Oilers 58.3%.
A side is a bet when our number and the market’s differ by at least 5 points. One more rule sits on top. We never bet a side the market gives less than 40%, because the method does not adjust for the strength of the opponent, and on underdogs its number has run above what those teams then did. The Flyers at 41.7% clear that floor.
Every input is from 2025-26, and this season is not in the figures. This season points the other way. Edmonton is 14-3-3, and 7-0-1 on the road. Philadelphia is 5-10-6, and 3-4-3 at home. The two met on Wednesday 11 November in Edmonton, a 3-2 Oilers win in overtime. Tristan Jarry and Devon Levi have played nine games each for the Oilers. Dan Vladar has played 11 for the Flyers and Joseph Woll 10. None of that moves our number. We state it because a reader should know the method is betting against the current form of both teams.
Philadelphia at home, Edmonton on the road
The halves the method uses are thin on both sides. The Flyers at home scored 2.71 a game and allowed 2.76, a deficit of 0.05. The Oilers on the road scored 3.39 and allowed 3.15, a surplus of 0.24. On goals, Edmonton’s road half was the stronger of the two. On results it was not: 19-16-6 gives up more losses than Philadelphia’s home half gives up.
The halves the method leaves out run the other way for both teams. Philadelphia on the road went 23-14-4, a 56.1% win rate, scoring 3.39 and allowing 3.17. Edmonton at home went 22-14-5, 53.7%, scoring 3.49 and allowing 3.41. The Flyers were the better road team of the two last season, and none of that is in our number.
The season around it
Philadelphia finished 43-27-12 with 98 points, and outscored opponents by 7. The Flyers beat Pittsburgh 4-2 in the first round of the playoffs, then were swept 0-4 by Carolina. Edmonton finished 41-30-11 with 93 points, and outscored opponents by 13. The Oilers lost 2-4 to Anaheim in the first round.
The Flyers did well in close games. They went 17-5-12 in one-goal games and won 16 of the 28 that went past 60 minutes. The Oilers went 13-11-11 in one-goal games and won 9 of their 20 past regulation. Edmonton won by two goals or more in 28 of 82 games. Philadelphia lost by two or more in 22 of 82.
The two teams met twice in 2025-26. On Wednesday 12 November 2025, in Philadelphia, the Oilers won 2-1 in overtime. That game is in both halves of our number: it is a Flyers home loss and an Oilers road win. On Saturday 3 January 2026, in Edmonton, the Flyers won 5-2. That one is in neither half.
Pick: Flyers +130
Bet the Flyers on the moneyline at +130. The gap is 9.5 points toward Philadelphia, against a threshold of 5.
The line read Flyers +130 and Oilers -155 on 14 November 2026 at 16:43 UTC, DraftKings via ESPN. It opened at the same prices, +130 and -155. The market has not moved.
What kills the bet
A shorter Philadelphia price. At +117 or longer the Flyers are a bet whatever Edmonton is priced at. Against the Oilers at -155, they stay a bet down to -109.
For the Oilers to become the bet, they would have to be +129 or longer whatever the Flyers price. Against the Flyers at the current +130, no Oilers price makes them a bet: by the time Edmonton’s price were long enough, the market would give them under 40%, and our rule never bets a side there. Either side drops out under that floor, at a price of about +150 or longer, however wide the gap.
The rest is on the ice. ESPN’s injury list for the Oilers has Isaac Howard, Alec Regula, Matt Savoie, goalie Frederik Andersen and Mattias Janmark on injured reserve. The Flyers list Noel Acciari as day-to-day with an upper-body injury and Nikita Grebenkin on injured reserve with a back injury. Andersen has not played this season, so his absence does not change who has been in goal for Edmonton. Check the lineups before you bet.
The total and the puck line
The total is 6.5, over -108 and under -112. The Flyers’ games went over 6.5 in 34 of 82 last season, a 41.5% rate. The Oilers’ games went over in 48 of 82, 58.5%. Philadelphia’s home games averaged 5.47 goals, Edmonton’s road games 6.54.
The average of the two rates is 50.0% for the over. With the margin removed the over is priced at 49.6% and the under at 50.4%. Our number leans over by 0.4 points. Pass on the total.
On the puck line, the Oilers are -1.5 at +160 and the Flyers +1.5 at -192, which is 36.9% and 63.1% without the margin. Edmonton won by two goals or more in 28 of 82 games last season, and Philadelphia lost by two or more in 22 of 82. Averaged, Oilers -1.5 lands 30.5% of the time against 36.9% priced, a gap of 6.4 points toward Flyers +1.5 at -192. Our method stakes the moneyline only, so this is a lean, on the same side. One bet on this game: the Flyers at +130.
Oilers at Flyers, Sunday 15 November, 7:30 PM ET, Xfinity Mobile Arena. Prices: DraftKings via ESPN, read 14 November 2026, 16:43 UTC. Results: ESPN, 2025-26 regular season and playoffs. Injury list, 2026-27 records and goalie appearances this season: ESPN’s game page, read 14 November 2026, 16:43 UTC.