NHL
NHL · Saturday 14 November
Wild vs Bruins Best Pick, Prediction and Odds
Take the Bruins on the moneyline. With Filip Gustavsson out, Minnesota’s road number weakens, and Boston at TD Garden comes out a 58.9% winner against the market’s 45.7%.
The Minnesota Wild at Boston Bruins is priced Bruins +110 and Wild -130 at DraftKings. With the margin out, that is 45.7% for Boston and 54.3% for Minnesota. The market has the visitors as the favourite. Our number has the home team clearly ahead.
How 58.9% is reached
Our home win chance is the average of two 2025-26 rates: the home team’s win rate in its own arena and the visitor’s loss rate on the road. Overtime and shootout wins count as wins, and neutral-site games are left out. A side is a bet when our number and the market’s differ by at least 5 points.
The Bruins went 29-11-1 at TD Garden in 2025-26, a 70.7% home win rate. That is the first half of the average, and it is a high one.
The margin is the extra a book builds into both prices so the pair comes to more than 100%. At +110 and -130 they come to 104.1%. Taken out, the Bruins are 45.7% and the Wild 54.3%.
Gustavsson’s absence
Gustavsson is on injured reserve with a hip injury (ESPN injury list, entry dated 5 November, 19 November given as his return date; read 13 November 2026, 16:33 UTC). When a team’s starting goalie is out, our method is run again on the games without him. Gustavsson appeared in 50 of Minnesota’s 82 games in 2025-26, ahead of Jesper Wallstedt’s 35, and in 24 of the 41 road games the method reads.
In the 17 road games he did not play, the Wild went 9-4-4, a 47.06% road loss rate. Seventeen clears our minimum of 10 games for an NHL goalie. Average 70.7% with 47.06% and the Bruins are 58.9%, the Wild 41.1%. That is 13.2 points better for Boston than the price.
The full road season points to the same side. The Wild went 23-14-4 away from home, a 43.9% road loss rate. On that figure Boston is 57.3% and the gap is 11.6 points. Removing Gustavsson makes Minnesota weaker on the road and widens the gap.
Every input is from 2025-26. This season is outside the method, and both teams have started well. The Bruins are 13-5-1, 8-2-0 at home, and lost 5-2 to Montreal on Thursday 12 November. Jeremy Swayman has played 14 of their games and Michael DiPietro 6. The Wild are 14-3-4, 9-3-2 on the road, and won 5-2 in Toronto on the same night. Wallstedt has played 18 of their games and Calvin Pickard 3.
Boston at home, Minnesota on the road
The Bruins at home scored 3.54 a game and allowed 2.56, a surplus of 0.98. The Wild on the road scored 3.46 and allowed 3.05, a surplus of 0.41. Boston’s home surplus is the largest figure in either half.
The halves the method leaves out: Boston on the road went 16-16-8, a 40.0% win rate, scoring 3.05 and allowing 3.48. Minnesota at home went 23-10-8, a 56.1% win rate, scoring 3.17 and allowing 2.80. The Bruins were a far weaker team away from TD Garden, and that half is not in our number.
The season around it
Minnesota finished 2025-26 at 46-24-12 with 104 points and outscored opponents by 32. In the playoffs the Wild beat Dallas 4-2 and lost 4-1 to Colorado. Boston went 45-27-10 with 100 points, a goal difference of 22, and lost its first-round series 4-2 to Buffalo.
Both were strong in close games. The Wild went 20-5-12 in one-goal games and won 15 of the 27 that went past regulation. The Bruins went 20-8-10 in one-goal games and won 12 of their 22 past 60 minutes. Each team lost by two goals or more in 19 of 82 games.
The teams split two meetings in 2025-26, each winning at home. Minnesota won 6-2 on Sunday 14 December 2025; that game sits in neither half of our number. Boston won 6-3 at TD Garden on Saturday 28 March 2026, and that one counts in the Bruins’ home rate.
Pick: Bruins +110
Bet the Bruins on the moneyline at +110. The gap is 13.2 points toward Boston on Minnesota’s road games without Gustavsson, against a threshold of 5, and 11.6 on the full road season.
The line read Bruins +110 and Wild -130 on 13 November 2026 at 16:33 UTC, DraftKings via ESPN. It opened at the same prices, so the market has not moved.
What kills the bet
A shorter Boston price. At -117 or longer the Bruins are a bet whatever Minnesota is priced at. Against the Wild at -130, they stay a bet down to -196. From the other direction, we never bet a side the market gives under 40% once the margin is out, a price of about +150 or longer, however wide the gap.
No price makes the Wild the bet. Any price long enough to give Minnesota a 5-point edge would put them under 40% in the market, and that rule makes it no bet.
The rest is on the ice. Boston’s good start and Minnesota’s better one are both outside our number. Besides Gustavsson, ESPN’s injury list has Joel Eriksson Ek day-to-day with an upper-body injury and Brock Faber on injured reserve for Minnesota. Boston lists James Hagens on injured reserve with a back injury. No other goalie is on either list. Check the lineups before you bet.
The total and the puck line
The total is 6.5, over -108 and under -112. The Bruins’ games went over 6.5 in 42 of 82, and so did the Wild’s. Boston’s home games averaged 6.1 goals, Minnesota’s road games 6.51.
That gives 51.2% for the over. With the margin removed the over is priced at 49.6% and the under at 50.4%, so our number leans over by 1.7 points. That is short of 5. Pass on the total.
On the puck line, Minnesota is -1.5 at +185 and Boston +1.5 at -225, which is 33.6% and 66.4% without the margin. Over the full season the Wild won by two goals or more in 26 of 82 games, and the Bruins lost by two or more in 19 of 82. Our method puts Wild -1.5 at 27.4% against 33.6% priced, a gap of 6.2 points toward Bruins +1.5. Our method stakes the moneyline only, so this is a lean on the same side. One bet on this game: the Bruins at +110.
Wild at Bruins, Saturday 14 November, 7:00 PM ET, TD Garden. Prices: DraftKings via ESPN, read 13 November 2026, 16:33 UTC. Results: ESPN, 2025-26 regular season and playoffs; Minnesota’s goalie appearances from ESPN box scores. Injury list, 2026-27 records and goalie appearances this season: ESPN’s game page, read 13 November 2026, 16:33 UTC.