Oilers vs Maple Leafs Best Pick, Prediction and Odds

Bet the Maple Leafs on the moneyline. Our number makes Toronto a 48.8% winner at home, and the price says 42.8%.

The Edmonton Oilers at Toronto Maple Leafs, Saturday 14 November at 7:00 PM ET at Scotiabank Arena, is a 6.0-point gap toward the home side. Our threshold is 5. The current form says the opposite, and the current form is not in our number.

Oilers and Maple Leafs this season

Edmonton is 14-3-3, and 7-0-1 on the road. The Oilers won 3 of their last 5: a 4-3 shootout loss at New Jersey on 3 November, a 5-4 loss to Anaheim on 5 November, then wins of 4-2 over Vancouver, 3-1 over the New York Rangers and 3-2 in overtime over Philadelphia on Wednesday 11 November. They score 4.00 goals a game on 25.5 shots and allow 26.9 shots a game. Their power play is at 33.3% and their penalty kill at 76.9%.

Leon Draisaitl leads Edmonton with 18 goals. Connor McDavid has 38 assists and 49 points. In goal, Tristan Jarry has played 9 games with a .907 save percentage, a 2.50 goals-against average and 2 shutouts. Devon Levi has also played 9, at .899 and 2.75.

Toronto is 8-11-2, and 4-8-1 at home. The Maple Leafs have lost their last 5, all in regulation: 3-2 to Utah, 4-2 to Montreal, 4-0 to New Jersey, 6-3 to Colorado and 5-2 to Minnesota on Thursday 12 November. They score 3.29 a game on 28.0 shots and allow 29.3 shots. The power play is at 27.1% and the penalty kill at 85.5%.

Auston Matthews leads Toronto in all three columns: 12 goals, 17 assists, 29 points. Sergei Bobrovsky has played 13 games at .881 with a 3.47 goals-against average. Anthony Stolarz has played 8 at .900 and 2.90.

ESPN’s injury list has Morgan Rielly day-to-day with a lower-body injury, and Colton Sissons, Kirill Marchenko, Miles Wood and Nick Blankenburg on injured reserve for Toronto. Edmonton lists Isaac Howard, Alec Regula, Matt Savoie, goalie Frederik Andersen and Mattias Janmark on injured reserve. None of these figures is in our number. It is built only from 2025-26.

The Oilers vs Maple Leafs odds

DraftKings has the Maple Leafs at +124 and the Oilers at -148. Those two prices add up to 104.3%. The extra over 100% is the margin, which a book builds in so the two prices add to more than 100%. With the margin out, the market gives Toronto 42.8% and Edmonton 57.2%.

The price has not moved. It opened at the same +124 and -148.

Pick: Maple Leafs +124

Bet the Maple Leafs on the moneyline at +124. Our number is 48.8% for Toronto against the market’s 42.8%, a gap of 6.0 points against a threshold of 5.

The line read Maple Leafs +124 and Oilers -148 on 13 November 2026 at 16:33 UTC, DraftKings via ESPN. It opened at +124 and -148. The method also refuses any side the market gives under 40%. Toronto is at 42.8%, so the rule does not apply here.

How 48.8% is reached

Our home win chance is the average of two 2025-26 rates: the home team’s win rate in its own arena and the visitor’s loss rate on the road. Overtime and shootout wins count as wins, and neutral-site games are left out. The Maple Leafs went 18-15-8 at home, a 43.9% win rate. The Oilers went 19-16-6 on the road, a 53.7% road loss rate. The average is 48.8% for Toronto and 51.2% for Edmonton.

The halves the method leaves out favour Edmonton more. Toronto went 14-21-6 on the road, a 34.1% win rate, and Edmonton went 22-14-5 at home, 53.7%.

The season around it

Last season Edmonton finished 41-30-11 with 93 points and a goal difference of +13, then lost a playoff series 2-4 to the Anaheim Ducks. Toronto finished 32-36-14 with 78 points, a goal difference of -46, and missed the playoffs. The Maple Leafs scored 3.09 a game and allowed 3.65.

Toronto played close. The Maple Leafs went 14-4-14 in one-goal games and won 9 of the 23 that went past regulation. They lost by two goals or more in 32 of 82 games and won by two or more in 18. Edmonton went 13-11-11 in one-goal games, won 9 of 20 past regulation, and won by two or more in 28 of 82.

The teams met twice in 2025-26. Edmonton won 6-3 in Toronto on Saturday 13 December 2025. That game is inside both halves of our number. Toronto won 5-2 in Edmonton on Tuesday 3 February 2026, which is in neither half.

What kills the bet

A shorter Toronto price. At +129 or longer the Maple Leafs are a bet whatever Edmonton is priced at. Against the Oilers at -148, they stay a bet down to +115.

For the Oilers to become the bet, they would have to be +117 or longer. They are -148. Neither side is ever a bet while the market gives it under 40%, about +150 or longer, however wide the gap.

The other risk is on the ice. Toronto has lost five straight and Edmonton is 7-0-1 on the road, and none of that is in our number. Rielly is listed day-to-day. Andersen is on Edmonton’s injured reserve, and Jarry and Levi have split the 18 starts this season. Check the lineups before you bet.

The total and the puck line

The total is 6.5, over -120 and under +100. Toronto’s games went over in 46 of 82 last season, 56.1%, and Edmonton’s in 48 of 82, 58.5%. Toronto’s home games averaged 6.83 goals and Edmonton’s road games 6.54.

That averages to 57.3% for the over. With the margin out, the market has the over at 52.2% and the under at 47.8%, a gap of 5.1 points toward the over. Our method stakes the moneyline only. The total is a lean over, not a bet.

On the puck line, Edmonton is -1.5 at +170 and Toronto +1.5 at -205: 35.5% and 64.5% with the margin out. The Oilers won by two or more in 28 of 82 games, and the Maple Leafs lost by two or more in 32 of 82. Averaged, Oilers -1.5 lands 36.6% of the time, 1.1 points from the price. That is no edge. One bet on this game: the Maple Leafs at +124.

Oilers at Maple Leafs, Saturday 14 November, 7:00 PM ET, Scotiabank Arena. Prices: DraftKings via ESPN, read 13 November 2026, 16:33 UTC. Results: ESPN, 2025-26 regular season and playoffs. This season’s records, team and goalie figures, scoring leaders and injury list: ESPN’s game page, read 13 November 2026, 16:33 UTC.