NHL
NHL · Saturday 14 November
Islanders vs Ducks Picks and Predictions, November 14
No bet on the Islanders at the Ducks on Saturday, 14 November. Our number has Anaheim 2.6 points better than the price, short of the 5 points we need.
The New York Islanders at Anaheim Ducks is priced close to even. Our method agrees with the price closely enough that there is nothing to stake.
Islanders vs Ducks odds
DraftKings has the Ducks at -115 and the Islanders at -105 on the moneyline. The total is 6.5, over -115 and under -105. On the puck line, Anaheim is -1.5 at +190 and New York +1.5 at -230.
A book builds an extra margin into both prices, so the pair adds to more than 100%. Here they come to 104.7%. With the margin taken out, the market gives the Ducks 51.1% and the Islanders 48.9%. The puck line works out to 33.1% for Ducks -1.5 and 66.9% for Islanders +1.5.
The moneyline opened at Ducks -122 and Islanders +102, which was 52.6% and 47.4% without the margin. Since the opening the market has moved toward the Islanders by 1.5 points.
Islanders betting form
New York is 8-6-4 this season and 4-3-2 on the road. They won 5-2 at the Los Angeles Kings on Thursday 12 November. That was their only win in the last five games. Before it came a 4-0 loss to Edmonton on 31 October, a 5-3 loss to Carolina on 5 November, a 5-4 overtime loss to New Jersey on 7 November and a 3-2 shootout loss at San Jose on 9 November.
They score 2.94 a game and allow 2.89. They take 25.6 shots a game and allow 29.2. The power play is at 16.4%, and the penalty kill at 85.7%. Bo Horvat leads them with 8 goals and 18 points, and Matthew Schaefer leads in assists with 12.
Ilya Sorokin has played 13 games, with a .915 save percentage, a 2.53 goals-against average and one shutout. Semyon Varlamov has played 5, at .892 and 2.72. ESPN’s injury list has Jean-Gabriel Pageau day-to-day with a lower-body injury. Mathew Barzal (knee), Calum Ritchie (lower body) and Alexander Romanov (knee) are on injured reserve.
Ducks betting form
Anaheim is 10-8-1, but only 3-5-1 at home. They lost 4-2 to Nashville on Wednesday 11 November, which ended a run of four straight wins: 5-4 at Vancouver, 5-4 at Edmonton, 5-3 at Calgary and 5-2 against Pittsburgh. That is 4 of the last 5.
The Ducks score 3.74 a game and allow 3.68, on 25.1 shots for and 26.9 against. Their power play converts 36.8% and their penalty kill stops 74.0%. Cutter Gauthier has 16 goals, Jackson LaCombe 21 assists, and Leo Carlsson leads with 26 points.
Three goalies have played. Lukas Dostal has 10 games at .866 and 3.76. Ville Husso has 6 at .868 and 3.55, and Laurent Brossoit 5 at .867 and 3.42. Ryan Poehling (knee), Ian Moore (lower body) and A.J. Greer (upper body) are on injured reserve.
Islanders vs Ducks matchup
Our number uses two halves of 2025-26: Anaheim at home and New York on the road. The Ducks went 24-13-4 at Honda Center, a 58.5% win rate, scoring 3.54 a game and allowing 3.49, a surplus of 0.05. The Islanders went 21-17-3 away from home. That is a 51.2% win rate and a 48.8% road loss rate, scoring 2.76 and allowing 2.90, a deficit of 0.14.
The method leaves out the other two halves. The Ducks went 19-20-2 on the road and the Islanders 22-17-2 at home.
Over the full season the two finished one point apart. Anaheim went 43-33-6 with 92 points in the Western Conference and was outscored by 15. They beat Edmonton 4-2 in the playoffs, then lost 4-2 to Vegas. New York went 43-34-5 with 91 points in the Eastern Conference, was outscored by 8, and missed the playoffs.
Both teams lived in close games. The Ducks went 24-6-6 in one-goal games and won 17 of the 23 that went past regulation. The Islanders went 27-11-5 in one-goal games and won 14 of 19 past 60 minutes. Anaheim won by two goals or more 19 times in 82 games and lost by two or more 27 times. For New York the figures were 16 and 23.
The two played twice last season. On 11 December 2025 the Islanders won 5-2 in their own arena. That game is in neither half of our number. On 4 March 2026 the Ducks won 5-1 at Honda Center, and that game is inside both halves.
Islanders vs Ducks prediction and best bet
Projected score: New York Islanders 3.1, Anaheim Ducks 3.2
Each team’s goals are the average of what it scored and what the other team allowed in 2025-26 at this venue. The Ducks scored 3.54 a game at home, and the Islanders allowed 2.9 on the road. The Islanders scored 2.76 on the road, and the Ducks allowed 3.49 at home. This is a projection of goals from last season, and it is not a bet.
Pick: No bet
There is no bet on this game. The gap is 2.6 points toward the Ducks, and the threshold is 5. The price read Ducks -115 and Islanders -105 at DraftKings via ESPN on 13 November 2026 at 16:33 UTC.
Our home win chance is the average of two 2025-26 rates: the home team’s win rate in its own arena and the visitor’s loss rate on the road. Overtime and shootout wins count as wins, and neutral-site games are left out. Averaging Anaheim’s 58.5% with New York’s 48.8% gives the Ducks 53.7% and the Islanders 46.3%. The market has the Ducks at 51.1%.
The projected score also has Anaheim ahead, by 0.1 goals. A goal projection is not a price, and a 0.1 edge in goals tells us nothing about whether -115 is wrong. The price is close to right: 2.6 points is inside the range our method treats as noise.
What kills the bet
There is no bet now, so the question is what would create one. The Ducks become a bet at +106 or longer, whatever the Islanders are priced at. They are -115.
The Islanders become a bet at +142 or longer, whatever the Ducks are priced at. Against the Ducks at -115 there is no Islanders price that works. By the time the gap is wide enough, the market gives New York under 40%. The method never bets a side priced under 40% (about +150 or longer), because it has no adjustment for opponent strength. On underdogs, its number has run above what those teams then did.
None of this season is in our number. Anaheim’s 3-5-1 home start and three goalies all under .870 sit outside it. So does New York’s 1-of-5 run and Barzal’s absence. Check the lineups before you bet.
The total and the puck line
The total is 6.5, over -115 and under -105. Ducks games went over 6.5 in 49 of 82, a 59.8% rate, and Islanders games in 36 of 82, 43.9%. Anaheim’s home games averaged 7.03 goals and New York’s road games 5.66.
That gives 51.8% for the over against 51.1% priced, a lean of 0.7 points. Pass on the total. The projected score of 6.3 goals sits under the line, and neither number is close to a bet.
On the puck line, Anaheim won by two or more in 19 of 82 games and New York lost by two or more in 23 of 82. Our number has Ducks -1.5 landing 25.6% of the time against 33.1% priced, a gap of 7.5 points toward Islanders +1.5 at -230. Our method stakes the moneyline only, so this is a lean and not a bet. No bet on this game.
Islanders at Ducks, Saturday 14 November, 10:00 PM ET, Honda Center. Prices: DraftKings via ESPN, read 13 November 2026, 16:33 UTC. Results: ESPN, 2025-26 regular season and playoffs. This season’s records, last five games, team statistics, leaders, goalies and injury list: ESPN’s game page, read 13 November 2026, 16:33 UTC.