NHL
NHL · Saturday 14 November
Flames vs Kings Best Pick, Prediction and Odds
No bet on the Flames. Our number has Calgary 7.3 points better than the price, but the market gives the Flames under 40%, and below 40% our method does not trust its own gap.
The gap is real on paper and unusable in practice. Our figure for the Calgary Flames at Los Angeles Kings is 45.1% for the visitors; the price says 37.8%. On a side priced that long, our method has run above what teams then did, so this one is a pass.
Flames and Kings this season
None of the figures in this section are in our number. They are 2026-27 to date, from ESPN’s game page, read 13 November 2026, 16:33 UTC.
Calgary is 8-10-1, and 2-5-1 on the road. The Flames last played on Wednesday 11 November, a 3-1 loss to the New York Rangers. Their last five games:
- W 2-1 at San Jose Sharks, Monday 2 November
- L 2-1 in overtime at Seattle Kraken, Wednesday 4 November
- L 5-3 vs Anaheim Ducks, Friday 6 November
- W 4-3 in overtime vs Philadelphia Flyers, Sunday 8 November
- L 3-1 vs New York Rangers, Wednesday 11 November
They won 2 of those 5. The Flames score 2.47 goals a game on 27.6 shots and allow a 3.47 goals-against average on 29.8 shots. Their power play runs at 29.5% and their penalty kill at 81.4%. Joel Farabee leads them with 7 goals and 17 points; Matt Coronato has 11 assists. In goal, Dustin Wolf has played 10 games with a .869 save percentage and a 3.75 goals-against average. Devin Cooley has played 9, at .914 and 2.63.
Los Angeles is 5-10-2, and 2-7-0 at home. The Kings last played on Thursday 12 November, losing 5-2 to the New York Islanders. Their last five:
- L 3-2 vs Buffalo Sabres, Saturday 31 October
- W 7-2 vs San Jose Sharks, Wednesday 4 November
- L 5-2 vs Pittsburgh Penguins, Saturday 7 November
- L 3-0 vs Nashville Predators, Tuesday 10 November
- L 5-2 vs New York Islanders, Thursday 12 November
That is 1 win in 5. The Kings score 2.76 a game on 28.0 shots, with a 3.53 goals-against average on 27.6 shots against. Their power play is 22.8%. Their penalty kill is 65.5%, the weakest special-teams number on either side. Artemi Panarin leads them in all three columns: 8 goals, 11 assists, 19 points. Darcy Kuemper has played 11 games at .873 and 3.58; Anton Forsberg 7, at .907 and 2.44.
ESPN’s injury list has three Calgary players: Kevin Bahl (D) on injured reserve with an Achilles injury, Jonathan Huberdeau (LW) on injured reserve with a hip injury, and Connor Zary (C) out with a knee injury. For Los Angeles it lists Erik Gustafsson (D) as day-to-day, undisclosed, and Jakub Dvorak (D) on injured reserve with an upper-body injury. No goalie is on either list.
The prices
DraftKings has the Kings -185 and the Flames +154, read 13 November 2026, 16:33 UTC. The two prices add to 104.3%. That excess is the margin: the extra a book builds in so a pair of prices comes to more than 100%. Taken out, the market has Los Angeles at 62.2% and Calgary at 37.8%.
The line has not moved. It opened at the same -185 and +154.
Pick: No bet
No bet on the moneyline. The gap is 7.3 points toward the Flames, above our threshold of 5. The long-shot rule overrides it: we never bet a side the market gives under 40%, and Calgary is at 37.8%.
The reason for the rule is in the method. It has no adjustment for the strength of the opponent, and on underdogs its number has run above what those teams then did. A 7.3-point gap on a 37.8% side is the place that error shows up.
How 54.9% is reached
Our home win chance is the average of two 2025-26 rates: the home team’s win rate in its own arena and the visitor’s loss rate on the road. Overtime and shootout wins count as wins. Neutral-site games are left out.
The Kings went 15-17-9 at crypto.com Arena, a 36.6% home win rate, scoring 2.63 and allowing 3.12, a deficit of 0.49 a game. The Flames went 11-26-4 on the road, a 73.2% road loss rate, scoring 2.24 and allowing 3.71, a deficit of 1.47. The average makes Los Angeles 54.9% and Calgary 45.1%. Against the market’s 62.2%, that is 7.3 points toward the Flames.
The halves left out run the other way for both teams. The Kings were better away, 20-10-11 on the road, a 48.8% win rate, scoring 2.85 and allowing 2.90. The Flames were 23-13-5 at home, 56.1%, scoring 2.93 and allowing 2.61.
Last season around it
Neither team was good in 2025-26. Los Angeles went 35-27-20 for 90 points, with a goal difference of -22, then lost 0-4 to the Colorado Avalanche in the playoffs. Calgary went 34-39-9 for 77 points, was outscored by 47, and missed the playoffs.
The Kings lived in close games. They went 21-6-20 in one-goal games and won 13 of the 33 that went past regulation. They won by two or more only 14 times in 82 games, and lost by two or more 21 times. Calgary went 14-6-9 in one-goal games and won 7 of its 16 past 60 minutes; it won by two or more 20 times and lost by two or more 33 times.
The four meetings, by arena:
| Date | Arena | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| Saturday 13 December 2025 | Kings | Flames | 2-1 OT |
| Saturday 28 February 2026 | Kings | Kings | 2-0 |
| Tuesday 24 March 2026 | Flames | Flames | 3-2 SO |
| Thursday 16 April 2026 | Flames | Flames | 3-1 |
The two games in Los Angeles are inside both halves of our number. The two in Calgary are in neither.
What kills the bet
The price, and only the price. Against the Kings at -185, the Flames become a bet at +130 or longer. Whatever the Kings are priced at, Calgary is a bet at +150. Over both sits the long-shot rule: while the market, margin removed, gives a side under 40%, about +150 or longer, there is no bet however wide the gap. At +154 Calgary is on the wrong side of that line.
For the Kings to become the bet they would need to be +101 or longer, whatever the Flames are priced at. Against Calgary at +154 they never become one.
The rest is on the ice and outside our number: the Kings are 2-7-0 at home this season, and the injury lists above stand as read. Check the lineups before you bet.
The total and the puck line
The total is 5.5, over -118 and under -102. Kings games went over 5.5 in 39 of 82 last season, a 47.6% rate. Flames games went over in 43 of 82, 52.4%. Kings home games averaged 5.75 goals, Flames road games 5.95.
Averaged, our over is 50.0%. With the margin out the market has the over at 51.7% and the under at 48.3%, so our number leans under by 1.7 points. That is under the threshold of 5. Pass on the total.
On the puck line, the Kings are -1.5 at +136 and the Flames +1.5 at -162, which is 40.7% and 59.3% without the margin. The Kings won by two or more in 14 of 82 games and the Flames lost by two or more in 33 of 82. Averaged, Kings -1.5 lands 28.7% of the time against 40.7% priced, a gap of 12.0 points toward Flames +1.5. Our method stakes the moneyline only, so this is a lean on the same side as the moneyline gap, never a bet. No bet on this game.
Flames at Kings, Saturday 14 November, 10:00 PM ET, crypto.com Arena. Prices: DraftKings via ESPN, read 13 November 2026, 16:33 UTC. Results: ESPN, 2025-26 regular season and playoffs. This season’s records, team and player figures, and injury lists: ESPN’s game page, read 13 November 2026, 16:33 UTC.