Senators vs Penguins Best Pick, Prediction and Odds

No bet on Senators at Penguins. The market and our number are 0.3 points apart, and we bet at 5.

DraftKings has the Ottawa Senators at -120 and the Pittsburgh Penguins at +100. The two prices add up to 104.5%. With the margin out, Ottawa is 52.2% and Pittsburgh 47.8%. The margin is the extra a book builds in so that the pair comes to more than 100%. The market has the visitors as a slight favourite, and our method agrees with the market to within a third of a point.

How 48.1% is reached

Our home win chance is the average of two 2025-26 rates: the home team’s win rate in its own arena and the visitor’s loss rate on the road. Overtime and shootout wins count as wins. Neutral-site games are left out of both splits.

The Penguins went 19-13-8 at PPG Paints Arena, a 47.5% home win rate. The Senators went 21-15-5 on the road, a 48.8% road loss rate. Average 47.5% with 48.8% and Pittsburgh is 48.1%, Ottawa 51.9%.

Against the price, that is 0.3 points toward the Penguins. The threshold for a bet is 5 points. Here the gap is too small to act on, and the price stands.

Every input is from 2025-26, so this season is outside the method. Pittsburgh is 7-10-2, 4-3-1 at home, and won 3-2 in a shootout at San Jose on Wednesday 11 November. Arturs Silovs has played 12 of the Penguins’ games and Sergei Murashov 7. Ottawa is 12-6-2, 5-4-1 on the road, and beat Colorado 4-3 in overtime on Thursday 12 November. Samuel Ersson has played 10 of the Senators’ games and Linus Ullmark 9.

Pittsburgh at home, Ottawa on the road

The two halves in our number are close to flat. The Penguins at home scored 3.65 a game and allowed 3.58, a surplus of 0.07. The Senators on the road scored 3.39 and allowed 3.37, a surplus of 0.02. Two splits that nearly break even produce a number near a coin flip.

The halves the method leaves out are better for both teams. Pittsburgh on the road went 21-12-7, a 52.5% win rate, scoring 3.55 and allowing 3.08, a surplus of 0.47. Ottawa at home went 23-12-6, a 56.1% win rate, scoring 3.39 and allowing 2.63, a surplus of 0.76. In 2025-26, each team was weaker in the setting it plays in on Saturday. Neither of the stronger halves is in our number.

Over the full season, Ottawa finished 44-27-11 with 99 points and a goal difference of +32. Pittsburgh finished 41-25-16 with 98 points and +25. Both went out early in the playoffs: Ottawa lost 4-0 in its series against Carolina, and Pittsburgh lost 4-2 against Philadelphia.

Pittsburgh’s season leaned on extra time. The Penguins went 12-7-16 in one-goal games, played 23 games past regulation and won 7 of them. Ottawa went 16-10-11 in one-goal games and won 6 of its 17 past 60 minutes. Margins of two goals or more were close to identical: the Penguins won 29 and lost 18, and the Senators won 28 and lost 17.

Ottawa won two of the three meetings in 2025-26. It won 4-0 at home on Thursday 18 December 2025 and 3-2 in Pittsburgh on Monday 2 February 2026. Pittsburgh won 4-3 in a shootout in Ottawa on Thursday 26 March 2026. The February game is the only one inside our number, in both halves. The two games in Ottawa are in neither half.

Pick: No bet

No bet on the moneyline. The gap is 0.3 points toward the Penguins, against a threshold of 5.

The line read Senators -120 and Penguins +100 on 13 November 2026 at 16:33 UTC, DraftKings via ESPN. It opened at the same prices, so the market’s chance for each side has not moved since opening.

What would change the call

It would take a longer price on either side. The Penguins become a bet at +132 or longer, whatever Ottawa is priced at. Against the Senators at -120, Pittsburgh is a bet at +142 or longer. They are +100.

The Senators become a bet at +113 or longer, whatever Pittsburgh is priced at. Against the Penguins at +100, Ottawa is a bet at +126 or longer. They are -120. A side the market gives under 40% (a price of about +150 or longer) is never a bet on our method, however wide the gap.

The rest is on the ice. ESPN’s injury list has Elmer Soderblom, Bryan Rust, Trevor van Riemsdyk and Ryan Graves on injured reserve for Pittsburgh. For Ottawa, Nick Cousins is out, and Andre Burakovsky, Warren Foegele and William Eklund are on injured reserve. No goalie is on either list. Check the lineups before you bet.

The total and the puck line

The total is 6.5, over -108 and under -112. The Penguins’ games went over 6.5 in 47 of 82, a 57.3% rate. The Senators’ games went over in 40 of 82, a 48.8% rate. Pittsburgh’s home games averaged 7.23 goals, Ottawa’s road games 6.76.

Averaged, our over is 53.0%. With the margin removed, the over is priced at 49.6% and the under at 50.4%, so our number leans over by 3.5 points. That is under the threshold. Pass on the total.

On the puck line, Ottawa is -1.5 at +195 and Pittsburgh +1.5 at -238, which is 32.5% and 67.5% without the margin. Over the full season, the Senators won by two goals or more in 28 of 82 games, and the Penguins lost by two or more in 18 of 82. On those figures, Senators -1.5 lands 28.0% of the time against 32.5% priced, a gap of 4.4 points toward Penguins +1.5. That is under the threshold, and our method stakes the moneyline only, so it is a lean at most, on the same side as the moneyline gap. No bet on this game.

Senators at Penguins, Saturday 14 November, 7:00 PM ET, PPG Paints Arena. Prices: DraftKings via ESPN, read 13 November 2026, 16:33 UTC. Results: ESPN, 2025-26 regular season and playoffs. Injury list, 2026-27 records and goalie appearances this season: ESPN’s game page, read 13 November 2026, 16:33 UTC.