Avalanche vs Canadiens Picks and Predictions, November 14

Bet the Avalanche on the moneyline in Montreal on Saturday, 14 November. Our number makes Colorado a 56.1% winner. The price says 48.3%.

The gap is 7.8 points, and our threshold for a bet is 5. That is the whole argument for the Colorado Avalanche at Montreal Canadiens. The rest of this page is where the 56.1% comes from and what would undo it.

Avalanche vs Canadiens odds

DraftKings has the Avalanche at -102 and the Canadiens at -118. The total is 6.5, with the over at +100 and the under at -120. On the puck line, Montreal is -1.5 at +205 and Colorado +1.5 at -250.

A book builds a margin into every pair of prices, so the two sides come to more than 100%. Here they come to 104.6%. With the margin out, the market gives Montreal 51.7% and Colorado 48.3%. The book has the home team as a slight favourite. Our number has the visitor as a clear one.

Avalanche betting form

Colorado is 11-6-3 this season and 4-5-1 on the road. The last game was a 4-3 overtime loss at Ottawa on Thursday, 12 November. Over the last five the Avalanche won 2:

• Tuesday 3 November: lost 7-2 at Columbus
• Thursday 5 November: lost 3-2 in overtime to Nashville
• Saturday 7 November: beat Detroit 4-0
• Tuesday 10 November: won 6-3 at Toronto
• Thursday 12 November: lost 4-3 in overtime at Ottawa

The Avalanche score 4.05 goals a game on 30.4 shots and allow 3.10 on 27.4 shots against. The power play converts at 23.9% and the penalty kill stops 80.3%. Artturi Lehkonen leads the team with 14 goals. Nathan MacKinnon leads with 20 assists and 30 points.

Mackenzie Blackwood has played 15 games, with a .901 save percentage, a 2.63 goals-against average and one shutout. Scott Wedgewood has played 6, at .863 and 3.99. ESPN lists MacKinnon and Cale Makar as day-to-day with lower-body injuries. Josh Manson (ankle) and Zachary L’Heureux (upper body) are on injured reserve.

Canadiens betting form

Montreal is 12-3-4 this season and 5-2-3 at home. The last game was a 5-2 win at Boston on Thursday, 12 November. Over the last five the Canadiens won 3:

• Tuesday 3 November: lost 5-4 in overtime to Winnipeg
• Thursday 5 November: beat Utah 5-4 in overtime
• Saturday 7 November: won 4-2 at Toronto
• Tuesday 10 November: lost 2-1 in overtime to Minnesota
• Thursday 12 November: won 5-2 at Boston

The Canadiens score 3.42 a game on 27.8 shots and allow 3.00 on 28.3 shots against. The power play is at 13.8%, the penalty kill at 78.1%. Cole Caufield leads with 12 goals and 18 points, and Lane Hutson with 15 assists.

Jacob Fowler has played 12 games, at .926 with a 2.13 goals-against average and two shutouts. Jakub Dobes has played 7, at .847 and 4.04. On ESPN’s list, Chris Kreider is day-to-day with a leg injury. Ivan Demidov (ankle), goalie Sam Montembeault (lower body), Bryce Pickford and Lucas Condotta (both undisclosed) are on injured reserve.

Avalanche vs Canadiens matchup

Our method uses two halves of 2025-26: Montreal at home and Colorado on the road. The Canadiens went 24-15-2 at the Bell Centre, a 58.5% win rate over 41 games, scoring 3.34 a game and allowing 3.1. The Avalanche went 29-7-5 on the road, a 70.7% win rate and a 29.3% loss rate, scoring 3.54 and allowing 2.32. Montreal’s surplus at home was 0.24 goals a game. Colorado’s on the road was 1.22.

The halves left out are close to the ones used. Montreal went 24-9-8 on the road, also 58.5%, scoring 3.56 and allowing 3.15. Colorado went 26-9-6 at home, 63.4%, scoring 3.83 and allowing 2.63. The Avalanche were the better road team than home team last season, and the road half is the one in our number.

Colorado finished 55-16-11 with 121 points and a goal difference of +99. It swept Los Angeles 4-0, beat Minnesota 4-1, then was swept 0-4 by Vegas. Montreal finished 48-24-10 with 106 points and +27. It beat Tampa Bay 4-3 and Buffalo 4-3, then lost 1-4 to Carolina.

The Avalanche won by two goals or more in 41 of 82 games and lost by two or more in 12. The Canadiens won by two or more in 25 and lost by two or more in 18. Montreal was strong in close games: 23-6-10 in one-goal games, and 14 wins in the 24 that went past regulation. Colorado went 14-4-11 in one-goal games and won 7 of 18 past 60 minutes.

The teams split two meetings in 2025-26. Colorado won 7-2 at home on Saturday, 29 November 2025, a game in neither half of our number. Montreal won 7-3 at the Bell Centre on Thursday, 29 January 2026, a game inside both halves.

Avalanche vs Canadiens prediction and best bet

Projected score: Colorado Avalanche 3.3, Montreal Canadiens 2.8

Each team’s goals are the average of what it scored and what the other allowed last season at this venue. Montreal scored 3.34 a game at home and Colorado allowed 2.32 on the road. Colorado scored 3.54 on the road and Montreal allowed 3.1 at home. It is a projection of goals from 2025-26, in decimals because it is an average, and it is not a bet. It points the same way as the pick, by 0.5 goals, for a projected total of 6.1.

Pick: Avalanche -102

Bet the Avalanche on the moneyline at -102. Our gap is 7.8 points toward Colorado, against a threshold of 5. The price was read at DraftKings via ESPN on 13 November 2026 at 20:33 UTC. It opened at Avalanche -102 and Canadiens -118, and has not moved.

Our home win chance is the average of two 2025-26 rates: Montreal’s home win rate of 58.5% and Colorado’s road loss rate of 29.3%. Overtime and shootout wins count as wins, and neutral-site games are left out. That puts Montreal at 43.9% and Colorado at 56.1%.

This season is outside the method, and it reads differently. Montreal is 12-3-4 and Colorado 11-6-3, and the Avalanche are 4-5-1 on the road against 29-7-5 last season. Nineteen or twenty games are a thin sample, and none of them are in our number.

What kills the bet

A shorter Colorado price. At -104 or longer, the Avalanche are a bet whatever Montreal is priced at. Against Montreal at -118, they stay a bet down to -130.

The Canadiens do not become the bet at any price. At the price where the gap would reach 5 points their way, the market would give them under 40%. The method never bets a side priced under 40%, about +150 or longer, because it has no adjustment for the strength of the opponent and its number on underdogs has run above what the teams then did.

The rest is the lineup. MacKinnon, who leads Colorado with 30 points, and Makar are both day-to-day. Neither is in our number either way: the method runs on last season’s games, and an absence this page only mentions does not change the call. Montembeault is on injured reserve for Montreal. Check the lineups before you bet.

The total and the puck line

The total is 6.5, over +100 and under -120. Montreal’s games went over 6.5 in 44 of 82 last season, a 53.7% rate. Colorado’s went over in 32 of 82, a 39.0% rate. Montreal’s home games averaged 6.44 goals and Colorado’s road games 5.86.

Averaged, those rates make the over 46.3%. With the margin out, the market prices the over at 47.8% and the under at 52.2%. Our number leans to the under by 1.5 points, below the threshold of 5. Pass on the total.

On the puck line, the market gives Montreal -1.5 a 31.5% chance and Colorado +1.5 68.5%. Last season Montreal won by two or more in 25 of 82 and Colorado lost by two or more in 12 of 82. Averaged, Canadiens -1.5 lands 22.6% of the time, a gap of 8.9 points toward Avalanche +1.5 at -250. Our method stakes the moneyline only, so this is a lean on the same side. One bet on this game: the Avalanche at -102.

Avalanche at Canadiens, Saturday 14 November, 7:00 PM ET, Bell Centre. Prices: DraftKings via ESPN, read 13 November 2026, 20:33 UTC. Results: ESPN, 2025-26 regular season and playoffs. This season’s records, last five games, team stats, leaders, goalies and injury list: ESPN’s game page, read 13 November 2026, 20:33 UTC.