Panthers vs Penguins Best Pick, Prediction and Odds

Bet the Penguins at -115. Sergei Bobrovsky is no longer Florida’s goalie, and without him the Panthers lost 11 of 16 road games last season; our number makes Pittsburgh a 58.1% winner against the price’s 51.1%.

The Pittsburgh Penguins are -115 and the Florida Panthers -105 at DraftKings. With the margin out, that is 51.1% for Pittsburgh and 48.9% for Florida. The price has this close to even. Our figures have the Penguins clearly ahead.

How 58.1% is reached

Our home win chance is the average of two 2025-26 rates: the home team’s win rate in its own arena and the visitor’s loss rate on the road. Overtime and shootout wins count as wins. Games at a neutral site are in neither half: Pittsburgh’s two games against Nashville in November, and Florida’s 5-1 loss to the Rangers in the Winter Classic on 2 January.

When the goalie who started most of a team’s games in that season will not play, the method is run again on the games without him. Bobrovsky appeared in 52 of Florida’s 82 games last season, and Daniil Tarasov in 33. ESPN now lists Bobrovsky with the Toronto Maple Leafs (read 22 October 2026, 14:12 UTC), and he has played none of Florida’s ten games this season. In the 25 road games he played last season, the Panthers went 12-13-0. In the 16 he did not, they went 5-10-1: 10 regulation losses and 1 after regulation, so 11 losses in 16, a 68.8% road loss rate, scoring 48 goals and allowing 59.

The Penguins went 19-13-8 at PPG Paints Arena, a 47.5% home win rate over 40 games. Average 47.5% with 68.8% and the Penguins are 58.1%, the Panthers 41.9%. That is 7.0 points better for Pittsburgh than the price.

The full road season does not get there. The Panthers went 17-23-1 on the road, a 58.5% loss rate; on that number Pittsburgh is 53.0% and the gap is 1.9 points, short of the 5 a bet needs. The two readings disagree, and the bet rests on the goalie: Florida’s road record without Bobrovsky is what moves Pittsburgh past the bar.

The margin is the extra a book builds into both prices so the pair comes to more than 100%. At -115 and -105 they come to 104.7%. Taken out, the Penguins are 51.1% and the Panthers 48.9%.

Every input is from 2025-26: Pittsburgh’s 40 home games and Florida’s 16 road games without Bobrovsky. This season is not in the figures, and so far it favours Florida. The Panthers are 5-3-2, 3-2-2 on the road; they lost 5-1 in Ottawa last night with Akira Schmid in goal, so this is the second game of a back-to-back. The Penguins are 3-6-1, 2-1-0 at home, and come back from three straight road losses in Colorado, Vegas and Utah. Arturs Silovs has played six of their games and Sergei Murashov four.

Pittsburgh at home, Florida on the road

Over the full season the Penguins at home scored 3.65 a game and allowed 3.58, a surplus of 0.07. The Panthers on the road scored 2.88 and allowed 3.73, a deficit of 0.85.

The halves the method leaves out: Pittsburgh on the road went 21-12-7, a 52.5% win rate, scoring 3.55 and allowing 3.08. Florida at home went 23-14-3, 57.5%, scoring 3.30 and allowing 2.95. Each team was better in the other’s half than in the one we use.

Over the full season these two finished 14 points apart. Pittsburgh went 41-25-16 with 98 points and outscored opponents by 25, then lost 4-2 to Philadelphia in the first round. Florida went 40-38-4 with 84 points, was outscored by 25, and missed the playoffs.

Pittsburgh lost a lot of games late. The Penguins went 12-7-16 in one-goal games and won only 7 of the 23 that went past regulation. Florida went 21-6-4 in one-goal games and won 8 of its 12 past 60 minutes. The Panthers lost by two goals or more in 32 of 82 games.

The Penguins won all three meetings in 2025-26. The two in Pittsburgh are in the full-season halves of our number: 9-4 on 4 April, a game Bobrovsky played in and so not in the re-run, and 5-2 the next day with Tarasov in goal, which is. Pittsburgh’s 5-3 win in Florida on 23 October is in neither.

Pick: Penguins -115

Bet the Penguins on the moneyline at -115. The gap is 7.0 points toward Pittsburgh on Florida’s road games without Bobrovsky, against a threshold of 5. On the full road season it is 1.9, which is no bet.

The line read Penguins -115 and Panthers -105 on 22 October 2026 at 14:08 UTC, DraftKings via ESPN. It opened at -112 and -108.

What kills the bet

A longer Pittsburgh price. Against Florida at -105, the Penguins stay a bet up to -138; at -113 or longer they are a bet whatever Florida is priced at.

For the Panthers to become the bet, they would have to be +172 or longer. They are -105.

The goalies are the open question. Jacob Markstrom, who has played in six of Florida’s ten games this season, is on injured reserve with an upper-body injury (ESPN injury list, read 22 October 2026, 14:10 UTC), and Schmid played last night. Markstrom played none of Florida’s games last season, so he is not in our number either way. Florida also lists Aleksander Barkov, Brad Marchand and Jonah Gadjovich on injured reserve. Pittsburgh lists Bryan Rust, Ben Kindel, Trevor van Riemsdyk and Justin Brazeau on injured reserve, and Samuel Girard as day-to-day. Check the lineups before you bet.

The total and the puck line

The total is 6.5, over -135 and under +114. The Penguins’ games went over 6.5 in 47 of 82, the Panthers’ in 42 of 82. Pittsburgh’s home games averaged 7.23 goals, Florida’s road games 6.61.

That is 57.3% and 51.2%, an average of 54.3% for the over. With the margin removed the over is priced at 55.1% and the under at 44.9%, so our number leans to the under by less than 1 point. Pass on the total.

On the puck line, Pittsburgh is -1.5 at +205 and Florida +1.5 at -250, which is 31.5% and 68.5% without the margin. Over the full season the Penguins won by two goals or more in 29 of 82 games, and the Panthers lost by two or more in 32 of 82. Averaged, Penguins -1.5 lands 37.2% of the time against 31.5% priced, a gap of 5.7 points. That is a lean to Penguins -1.5 at +205, on the same side: our method stakes the moneyline only. One bet on this game: the Penguins at -115.

Panthers at Penguins, Thursday 22 October, 7:00 PM ET, PPG Paints Arena. Prices: DraftKings via ESPN, read 22 October 2026, 14:08 UTC. Results: ESPN, 2025-26 regular season and playoffs; Florida’s goalie appearances from ESPN box scores, read 20 October 2026; Bobrovsky’s team from his ESPN player page, read 22 October 2026, 14:12 UTC. Injury list: ESPN’s game page, read 22 October 2026, 14:10 UTC. 2026-27 records and goalie appearances: ESPN team schedules and box scores, read 22 October 2026.