NHL
NHL · Thursday 22 October
Kings vs Islanders Best Pick, Prediction and Odds
No bet on the Islanders at -115. The price makes New York 51.1%, we make it 52.4%, and a 1.3-point gap is well short of our bar of 5.
The New York Islanders are -115 and the Los Angeles Kings -105 at DraftKings. With the margin out, that is 51.1% for New York and 48.9% for Los Angeles. Both numbers have the Islanders as a narrow home favourite, and they are close together.
How 52.4% is reached
Our home win chance is the average of two 2025-26 rates: the home team’s win rate in its own arena and the visitor’s loss rate on the road. Overtime and shootout wins count as wins. Neither team played a game at a neutral site.
The Islanders went 22-17-2 at UBS Arena, a 53.7% home win rate over 41 games. The Kings went 20-10-11 on the road: 10 regulation losses and 11 after regulation, so 21 losses in 41, a 51.2% road loss rate. The midpoint is 52.4% for New York and 47.6% for Los Angeles.
The margin is the extra a book builds into both prices so the pair comes to more than 100%. At -115 and -105 they come to 104.7%. Taken out, the Islanders are 51.1% and the Kings 48.9%.
Every input is from 2025-26: 41 New York home games and 41 Los Angeles road games. This season has started for both and none of it is in the figures. The Islanders are 5-3-1, 4-1-0 at home, and beat Anaheim 3-2 at home on Tuesday. Ilya Sorokin has played seven of their games and Semyon Varlamov two. The Kings are 1-4-2, 1-1-2 on the road, and won for the first time this season on Tuesday, 5-2 in Washington. Darcy Kuemper has appeared in five of their games and Anton Forsberg in three.
New York at home, Los Angeles on the road
The Islanders at home scored 2.93 a game and allowed 2.98, a deficit of 0.05. The Kings on the road scored 2.85 and allowed 2.90, also a deficit of 0.05.
The halves the method leaves out: New York on the road went 21-17-3, a 51.2% win rate, scoring 2.76 and allowing 2.90. Los Angeles at home went 15-17-9, 36.6%, scoring 2.63 and allowing 3.12. The Kings were a better team on the road than at home last season.
Over the full season these two finished a point apart. New York went 43-34-5 with 91 points, was outscored by 8, and missed the playoffs. Los Angeles went 35-27-20 with 90 points and was outscored by 22, then was swept 4-0 by Colorado in the playoffs.
Both teams lived in close games. The Islanders went 27-11-5 in one-goal games and won 14 of the 19 that went past regulation. The Kings went 21-6-20 in one-goal games, and 33 went past regulation, of which they won 13. Neither pulled clear often: New York won by two goals or more in 16 of 82 games, and Los Angeles lost by two or more in 21 of 82.
The Kings won both meetings in 2025-26. Their 3-2 win at UBS Arena on 13 March is in both halves of our number. Their 5-3 win in Los Angeles on 5 March is in neither.
Pick: No bet on the Islanders -115
Pass on the moneyline. The gap is 1.3 points toward New York, against a threshold of 5.
The line read Islanders -115 and Kings -105 on 22 October 2026 at 14:08 UTC, DraftKings via ESPN. It opened at -118 and -102.
What changes it
A longer New York price. At +111 or longer the Islanders are a bet whatever Los Angeles is priced at.
For the Kings to become the bet, they would have to be +135 or longer. They are -105.
Lineups are the other unknown. Sorokin was the Islanders’ most-used goalie last season and Kuemper the Kings’, and neither is on an injury list. New York lists Calum Ritchie and Matias Maccelli as out, and Mathew Barzal and Alexander Romanov on injured reserve. Los Angeles lists Quinton Byfield as day-to-day, and Kevin Fiala, Alex Turcotte, Jakub Dvorak and Jan Jenik on injured reserve. Check the lineups before you bet.
The total and the puck line
The total is 5.5, over -105 and under -115. The Islanders’ games went over 5.5 in 41 of 82, the Kings’ in 39 of 82. New York’s home games averaged 5.91 goals, Los Angeles’s road games 5.75.
That is 50.0% and 47.6%, an average of 48.8% for the over. With the margin removed the over is priced at 48.9% and the under at 51.1%, so our number and the price agree. Pass on the total.
The puck line leans to Los Angeles. New York is -1.5 at +230 and Los Angeles +1.5 at -285, which is 29.0% and 71.0% without the margin. Averaged, Islanders -1.5 lands 22.6% of the time against 29.0% priced. Our method stakes the moneyline only, so this is a lean: Kings +1.5 at -285. The call on the game stays no bet.
Kings at Islanders, Thursday 22 October, 7:30 PM ET, UBS Arena. Prices: DraftKings via ESPN, read 22 October 2026, 14:08 UTC. Results: ESPN, 2025-26 regular season and playoffs; goalie appearances from ESPN box scores, read 22 October 2026. Injury list: ESPN’s game page, read 22 October 2026, 14:10 UTC. 2026-27 records and goalie appearances: ESPN team schedules and box scores, read 22 October 2026.