NHL
NHL · Tuesday 13 October
Wild vs Jets Best Pick, Prediction and Odds
Take the Wild at +105. Minnesota won 23 of 41 on the road last season, and Winnipeg won 19 of 41 at home.
The Winnipeg Jets are -125 and the Minnesota Wild +105 at DraftKings. Margin removed, the market has Minnesota at 46.8%. Our number has the Wild at 54.9%. The gap is 8.1 points and the bar for a bet is 5. The Wild are a bet, and by our number they are the favourite.
How the number is built
The method fits in a clause: average the home team’s 2025-26 home win rate and the visitor’s 2025-26 road loss rate to get the home win chance, counting overtime and shootout wins as wins. A neutral-site game would be dropped from both, and these two teams played none.
The Jets went 19-16-6 at home, which is 19 wins, 16 regulation losses and 6 losses after regulation. That is a 46.3% home win rate over 41 games. The Wild went 23-14-4 on the road, 18 losses in 41 and a 43.9% road loss rate. Average them and Winnipeg is at 45.1%, which puts Minnesota at 54.9%.
A book’s two prices add to more than 100%, and the amount over is the margin. For -125 and +105 the sum is 104.3%. Take it out and the Jets are 53.2%, the Wild 46.8%.
The two numbers name different favourites. Ours is last season and nothing else: 41 Winnipeg home games and 41 Minnesota road games. The market is pricing 2026-27, and this page has no measure of what either team changed over the summer. If the Jets are a better home team now than the one that won 19 of 41, these figures cannot see it.
The Jets at home, the Wild on the road
The Wild on the road scored 3.46 goals a game and allowed 3.05, which put them 0.41 a game ahead. The Jets at home scored 3.02 and allowed 3.10. Visitors to Winnipeg outscored the home team by 0.08 a game.
Minnesota won 23 games at home and 23 on the road, 56.1% of 41 in each. The home record was 23-10-8. Winnipeg dropped off away from home: 16-19-6, a 39.0% win rate, outscored by 0.63 a game.
The Wild finished 46-24-12 with 104 points and outscored opponents by 32 goals over 82 games. In the playoffs they beat Dallas in six games in the first round and lost to Colorado in five in the second. The Jets finished 35-35-12 with 82 points, were outscored by 29, and did not play in the playoffs.
Minnesota played 27 games that went past 60 minutes, close to one in three, and won 15. Winnipeg played 19 and won 7. In one-goal games the Wild went 20-5-12 and the Jets 16-12-12.
The teams met four times in 2025-26. Each won twice, and the road team won all four. Winnipeg won 4-3 in overtime on 28 October and 6-2 on 15 January, both in Minnesota. Minnesota won 3-0 on 23 November and 4-3 in overtime on 27 December, both in Winnipeg. Four games do not make a rate, and the method does not use them.
Pick: Wild +105
Bet the Wild on the moneyline at +105. The gap is 8.1 points against a 5-point threshold.
The line opened at Jets -125 and Wild +105 and had not moved when it was read on 12 October 2026 at 16:02 UTC, DraftKings via ESPN.
What changes it
The Wild are a bet at +101 or longer, whatever the Jets are priced at, and they are +105. That is the strictest form of the test, with no margin taken out. Priced as a pick’em at -109 on each side, both teams would be 50.0% with the margin removed and the gap 4.9, just under the bar. So the bet ends about where the game is priced even. The Jets would need +150 or longer to be the bet.
Nothing here says who dresses for either team on 13 October. The market makes Winnipeg the favourite on something these figures do not hold, so check the lineups before you bet.
The total and the puck line
The total is 6.5, over +110 and under -130. The Jets’ games went over 6.5 in 39 of 82 and the Wild’s in 42 of 82. Winnipeg’s home games averaged 6.12 goals, Minnesota’s road games 6.51.
The two over rates, 47.6% and 51.2%, average 49.4%. The over at +110 is priced at 45.7% with the margin removed. The gap is 3.7 points toward the over, short of 5. Pass on the total.
The puck line has the Jets -1.5 at +200 and the Wild +1.5 at -245, which is 31.9% and 68.1% with the margin out. Winnipeg won by two goals or more in 19 of 82 games. Minnesota lost by two or more in 19 of 82 as well. Averaged, Jets -1.5 lands 23.2% of the time against 31.9% priced, so Wild +1.5 lands 76.8% against 68.1%. The gap is 8.7 points. Our method bets the moneyline only, so this is a lean: Wild +1.5 at -245. It is the moneyline argument again, from the same 82 games a team. The bet is the Wild at +105.
Wild at Jets, Tuesday 13 October, 8:15 PM ET, Canada Life Centre. Prices: DraftKings via ESPN, read 12 October 2026, 16:02 UTC. Results: ESPN, 2025-26 regular season and playoffs. Nothing here states who is available.