NHL
NHL · Saturday 24 October
Maple Leafs vs Oilers Best Pick, Prediction and Odds
No bet on the Maple Leafs at +154. Our number gives Toronto 40.2% against the price’s 37.8%, a gap of 2.4 points, and we bet at 5.
DraftKings has the Edmonton Oilers at -185 and the Toronto Maple Leafs at +154. With the margin out, that is 62.2% for Edmonton and 37.8% for Toronto. Our number agrees on the favourite and differs by 2.4 points on the size. That is too little to bet.
How 59.8% is reached
Our home win chance is the average of two 2025-26 rates: the home team’s win rate in its own arena and the visitor’s loss rate on the road. Overtime and shootout wins count as wins. Neutral-site games are left out. A side is a bet when our number and the market’s differ by at least 5 points.
The Oilers went 22-14-5 at Rogers Place, a 53.7% home win rate over 41 games. The Maple Leafs went 14-21-6 on the road, a 65.9% road loss rate. Averaged, Edmonton is 59.8% and Toronto 40.2%.
The margin is the extra a book builds into both prices so the pair comes to more than 100%. At -185 and +154 the two come to 104.3%. Taken out, the Oilers are 62.2% and the Maple Leafs 37.8%. Our 40.2% for Toronto sits 2.4 points above the price, under half the threshold.
Every input is from 2025-26. This season is not in our number. The Oilers are 8-1-1, 3-1-1 at home, and beat the Carolina Hurricanes 6-5 in a shootout on Thursday. The Maple Leafs are 6-4-2, 2-1-1 on the road, and beat the New York Rangers 5-4 the same night. Sergei Bobrovsky has played eight of Toronto’s games and Anthony Stolarz four.
Edmonton’s goaltending has changed. Devon Levi, who has played seven of the Oilers’ 10 games this season, is on injured reserve on ESPN’s injury list (read 24 October 2026, 00:40 UTC), and Tristan Jarry has played the other three. Our number does not account for Levi’s absence, and the call does not change on it.
Edmonton at home, Toronto on the road
At home last season the Oilers scored 3.49 a game and allowed 3.41, a surplus of 0.08. That is a thin edge for a team that won 53.7% of its home games. The Maple Leafs on the road scored 2.88 and allowed 3.76, a deficit of 0.88 a game.
The halves the method leaves out: Edmonton on the road went 19-16-6, a 46.3% win rate, scoring 3.39 and allowing 3.15. That surplus of 0.24 was larger than the home one. Toronto at home went 18-15-8, a 43.9% win rate, scoring 3.29 and allowing 3.54.
The season around it
The Oilers finished 41-30-11 with 93 points and a goal difference of +13, then lost a playoff series 2-4 to the Anaheim Ducks. The Maple Leafs finished 32-36-14 with 78 points, were outscored by 46, and missed the playoffs.
Toronto spent much of the season in tight games. The Maple Leafs went 14-4-14 in one-goal games and won 9 of the 23 that went past regulation. They lost by two goals or more in 32 of 82. Edmonton went 13-11-11 in one-goal games, won 9 of its 20 past 60 minutes, and won by two or more in 28 of 82.
The teams split two meetings in 2025-26. The Oilers won 6-3 in Toronto on Saturday 13 December 2025; that game is in neither half of our number. The Maple Leafs won 5-2 at Rogers Place on Tuesday 3 February 2026, and that one is inside both halves.
Pick: No bet
No bet on the moneyline. The gap is 2.4 points toward the Maple Leafs, against a threshold of 5. At this price the market has the game close to right.
The line read Oilers -185 and Maple Leafs +154 on 24 October 2026 at 00:40 UTC, DraftKings via ESPN. It opened at -175 and +145. Since opening the market gives the Oilers 1.3 points more, 62.2% against 60.9%.
What kills the bet
There is no bet to kill, so here is what would make one. The Maple Leafs become a bet at +184 or longer whatever the Oilers are priced at; against Edmonton at -185, they become one at +183. They are +154.
For the Oilers to become the bet, they would have to be -121 or longer whatever Toronto is priced at, or +110 or longer against the Maple Leafs at +154. They are -185, a long way off.
ESPN’s injury list (read 24 October 2026, 00:40 UTC) has Levi on injured reserve for Edmonton, along with Jason Dickinson, Alec Regula and Matt Savoie; Mattias Ekholm is listed out. Toronto has John Tavares, Dakota Joshua, Miles Wood, Nick Blankenburg and Marshall Rifai on injured reserve. None of that is in our number. Check the lineups before you bet.
The total and the puck line
The total is 6.5, over -142 and under +120. The Oilers’ games went over 6.5 in 48 of 82, the Maple Leafs’ in 46 of 82. Edmonton’s home games averaged 6.9 goals, Toronto’s road games 6.64.
That is 58.5% and 56.1%, an average of 57.3% for the over. With the margin removed the over is priced at 56.3% and the under at 43.7%. Our number leans to the over by 1.0 point. Pass on the total.
On the puck line, Edmonton is -1.5 at +130 and Toronto +1.5 at -155, which is 41.7% and 58.3% without the margin. The Oilers won by two goals or more in 28 of 82 games, and the Maple Leafs lost by two or more in 32 of 82. Averaged, Oilers -1.5 lands 36.6% of the time against 41.7% priced, a gap of 5.1 points toward Maple Leafs +1.5. Our method stakes the moneyline only. This is a lean, on the same side as the moneyline gap, and the moneyline is a pass. No bet on this game.
Maple Leafs at Oilers, Saturday 24 October, 7:00 PM ET, Rogers Place. Prices: DraftKings via ESPN, read 24 October 2026, 00:40 UTC. Results: ESPN, 2025-26 regular season and playoffs. Injury list, 2026-27 records and goalie appearances this season: ESPN’s game page, read 24 October 2026, 00:40 UTC.