NHL
NHL · Thursday 15 October
Mammoth vs Oilers Best Pick, Prediction and Odds
Bet the Mammoth at +124. The price gives Utah 42.8%, our number gives it 48.8%, and the 6.0-point gap clears the 5-point bar.
The Edmonton Oilers are -148 and the Utah Mammoth +124 at DraftKings. With the margin out, the market has Edmonton at 57.2% and Utah at 42.8%. Our number has the game close to a coin toss: 51.2% for the Oilers, 48.8% for the Mammoth.
What puts it near even
The method is one average of two 2025-26 rates: the home team’s win rate at home and the visitor’s loss rate on the road. A win in overtime or a shootout counts as a win, and games at a neutral site are in neither rate. Neither team played one.
Edmonton went 22-14-5 at Rogers Place, 22 wins, 14 regulation losses and 5 after regulation. That is a 53.7% home win rate over 41 games. Utah went 21-17-3 on the road and lost 20 of 41, a 48.8% road loss rate. The average is 51.2% for the Oilers and 48.8% for the Mammoth.
Neither half favours Edmonton by much. The Oilers won only slightly more than half at home, and Utah won slightly more than half on the road. The market’s 57.2% needs more home advantage than either record shows.
The margin is the share a book adds to both prices so that they total more than 100%. At -148 and +124 they total 104.3%. Taken out, that leaves the Oilers at 57.2% and the Mammoth at 42.8%.
The case for the bet rests on 41 home games and 41 road games from last season, and that is also its weakness. None of this season is in it. Both teams won on Tuesday: Edmonton 4-1 in Los Angeles, Utah 5-4 at home against the Toronto Maple Leafs. Those results are not in the figures.
Edmonton at home, Utah on the road
The goals tell the same story as the records. At home the Oilers scored 3.49 a game and allowed 3.41, ahead by only 0.08. The Mammoth on the road scored 3.20 and allowed 2.83, ahead by 0.37.
Edmonton’s goal difference was better away than at home. On the road the Oilers went 19-16-6, a 46.3% win rate, scoring 3.39 and allowing 3.15. Utah went 22-16-3 at home, 53.7%, scoring 3.34 and allowing 3.02. The method uses only the Oilers’ home half and the Mammoth’s road half.
Over the full season these two finished a point apart. Edmonton was 41-30-11 with 93 points and outscored opponents by 13. Utah was 43-33-6 with 92 points and outscored opponents by 28. Both went out in the first series they played in the playoffs, 4-2 each: the Oilers to Anaheim, the Mammoth to Vegas.
Utah won two more games, and Edmonton still finished a point ahead because a loss after regulation pays a point. The Oilers lost 11 games that way and won 9 of the 20 that went past 60 minutes. Utah lost only 6 that way and won 10 of 16. In one-goal games Edmonton went 13-11-11 and Utah 16-11-6. Edmonton won 28 of its 41 by two goals or more, Utah 27 of 43.
The Oilers won two of the three meetings in 2025-26. One was in Edmonton, a 6-3 Oilers win on 28 October, and it is the only meeting in our number, one game in Edmonton’s home half and one in Utah’s road half. The two in Utah, a 5-2 Oilers win on 24 March and a 6-5 Mammoth win in overtime on 7 April, count in neither.
Pick: Mammoth +124
Bet the Mammoth on the moneyline at +124. The gap is 6.0 points toward Utah, and the threshold is 5.
The line opened at Oilers -148 and Mammoth +124 and had not moved when it was read on 14 October 2026 at 16:20 UTC, DraftKings via ESPN.
What kills the bet
A shorter Mammoth price. At +129 or longer Utah is a bet whatever Edmonton is priced at, and +124 is already shorter than that, so the Oilers’ price matters too. Against -148, the Mammoth still clear the bar down to +115. Shorter than that, the bet is gone.
The Oilers would need to drift to +117 or longer to become the bet themselves. They are -148.
The lineups are the other unknown. This page states nothing about who plays for either team on 15 October. Check both before you take the +124.
The total and the puck line
The total is 6.5, over -108 and under -112. The Oilers’ games went over 6.5 in 48 of 82 and the Mammoth’s in 38 of 82. Edmonton’s home games averaged 6.90 goals, Utah’s road games 6.03.
The two over rates are 58.5% and 46.3%, an average of 52.4%. The over at -108 is priced at 49.6% with the margin out. The gap is 2.8 points toward the over, short of 5. Pass on the total.
On the puck line the Oilers are -1.5 at +170 and the Mammoth +1.5 at -205, which is 35.5% and 64.5% without the margin. Edmonton won by two goals or more in 28 of 82 games. Utah lost by two or more in 22 of 82. Averaged, Oilers -1.5 lands 30.5% of the time against 35.5% priced, a gap of 5.0 points toward Mammoth +1.5. That is the same side as the pick and sits exactly on the bar, so it is a lean only: our method bets the moneyline. One bet on this game: the Mammoth at +124.
Mammoth at Oilers, Thursday 15 October, 9:00 PM ET, Rogers Place. Prices: DraftKings via ESPN, read 14 October 2026, 16:20 UTC. Results: ESPN, 2025-26 regular season and playoffs; Tuesday’s scores from ESPN’s scoreboard, read 14 October 2026. Nothing here states who is available.