Backing the Bengals to win every priced game in 2025-26 lost 12.61 units over 28, a deficit 22 Division I teams exceeded. The spread told a milder story: 14 covers in 29.
The moneyline hole
Of 365 Division I teams, 342 returned more on blind moneyline support than Idaho State. Most of the 12.61 units went on the road, where 15 priced games lost 9.27 and the record was 3-12; again 342 teams did better away, 22 worse. As underdogs, 3-13 straight up, the 16 moneylines lost 9.29.
Running total over 28 priced 2025-26 regular-season games, at the pre-game moneyline. Source: ESPN results and pre-game lines.
Home was 8-6 and cheaper, 2.83 units lost over 11 priced games. Favored 13 times, the Bengals won seven; the 12 priced favorite moneylines lost 3.32. The short-priced home defeats are the ones to remember: 79-73 to Northern Arizona at -360 on 5 February, 84-66 to Eastern Washington at -258 on 17 January.
The spread was fairer
Fourteen covers, 15 misses. Home 5 of 11, away 7 of 15, favorites 6 of 13, underdogs 8 of 16: none of the four strays far from half.
2025-26 regular season. Neutral-site games are in neither home nor away. Source: ESPN results and pre-game lines.
A good November, then a long winter
November went 4-4 but covered all five lined games. December (3-2, three covers in four) held. January and February then ran 5-12 straight up with 5 covers in 17, costing 8.58 units.
13-20 in 33 games. Source: ESPN results and pre-game lines.
Portland State, three times
Portland State beat the Bengals in all three meetings, the third in the Big Sky second round, and covered each time: 3 units lost. Northern Colorado and Eastern Washington won both of theirs, again without an Idaho State cover. Against Northern Arizona, also met three times, the Bengals won two and covered one.
2025-26 regular season; dark is wins, light the games played. Source: ESPN results and pre-game lines.
Points
Seventeen overs and 13 unders in 30 games with a total: not enough to call.
Questions and answers
Did betting Idaho State on the moneyline make money in 2025-26?
No: 12.61 units lost over 28 priced games, 9.27 of them on the road.
How did the Bengals do against Portland State?
Three games, three defeats, three Portland State covers.
