NBA DPOY Odds and Predictions 2027: Best Defensive Bets

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NBA DPOY Odds enter the 2026-27 season with one of the most dominant preseason favorites in any major award market. Victor Wembanyama is approximately -325 to repeat as Defensive Player of the Year after becoming the youngest and first unanimous winner in NBA history.

The San Antonio superstar is clearly the most likely winner, but that does not automatically make him the best bet. Chet Holmgren is available around +1200, Ausar Thompson sits near +2500 and several former winners and All-Defensive players can be found between +4000 and +8000.

Our NBA DPOY prediction remains Wembanyama, but Holmgren provides the strongest combination of price, defensive impact and team success among bettors looking to oppose the favorite. Thompson is our preferred longer-priced candidate after finishing third in last season’s voting and helping Detroit build one of the best defensive identities in the Eastern Conference.

This updated NBA DPOY odds and predictions guide breaks down the current market, Wembanyama’s repeat chances, Holmgren’s value, Thompson’s longshot case, former winners, wing defenders, team-defense expectations, eligibility concerns and our final 2027 Defensive Player of the Year betting card.

NBA DPOY Odds Update

The 2027 Defensive Player of the Year market is no longer an early watchlist. Sportsbooks have now posted a complete futures board, and the gap between Wembanyama and everyone else is enormous.

Wembanyama sits around -325 at the best current prices. That represents an implied probability above 76% before accounting for sportsbook margin.

Holmgren is the clear second choice around +1200, while Thompson is third near +2500. Gobert has moved into the +4000 range, with Mobley and Barnes near +5000.

The market therefore creates two completely different betting strategies. Bettors who simply want the player most likely to win should start with Wembanyama. Bettors searching for a larger potential return need to determine whether the favorite’s health and eligibility risk create enough opportunity for Holmgren, Thompson or another contender.

Bettors can compare changing award prices with the broader ScoresAndStats NBA odds market as Opening Night approaches.

Current NBA Defensive Player of the Year Odds 2027

Wembanyama is priced in a completely different category from the rest of the field. The gap from approximately -325 to Holmgren at +1200 is much larger than a normal preseason award market.

That gap reflects what happened last season. Wembanyama did not merely win. He received every first-place vote, led the NBA in blocks per game for a third consecutive season and anchored a San Antonio defense that finished among the league’s best.

The deeper market becomes more interesting because several players have dramatically different prices depending on the sportsbook. That makes line shopping especially valuable for Barnes, Adebayo, Mobley, Amen Thompson and OG Anunoby.

The most important number in the table may be Wembanyama’s negative price. Betting -325 requires risking $325 to win $100, which creates a very different bankroll decision from taking Holmgren at 12-1 or Thompson at 25-1.

Why Is Victor Wembanyama Such a Heavy DPOY Favorite?

Wembanyama enters 2026-27 with almost every characteristic voters historically reward.

He led the NBA with 3.08 blocks per game last season, accomplishing that for the third consecutive year. He also averaged more than a steal per game while operating as the primary rim protector for San Antonio.

The team results were just as important. The Spurs finished third in defensive rating, and their defense allowed dramatically fewer points per 100 possessions when Wembanyama was on the floor.

That combination eliminates many of the usual weaknesses in a DPOY résumé. Some candidates produce excellent block numbers on average defenses. Others anchor elite defenses without eye-catching counting statistics. Wembanyama provides both.

He also changes possessions without recording a statistic. Drivers abandon shots, ball-handlers alter angles and offenses pull centers away from the basket because challenging him directly at the rim is so inefficient.

San Antonio enters the new season with a market projection around 60 wins. If the Spurs again finish near the top of the defensive rankings while Wembanyama reaches award eligibility, another overwhelming voting result is realistic.

Victor Wembanyama DPOY Prediction

Wembanyama is our prediction to win the 2027 NBA Defensive Player of the Year award.

The basketball case is almost impossible to attack. He is the league’s most disruptive rim protector, already has voter recognition and plays for a team expected to contend for the best record in the NBA.

The question is price rather than talent.

At -325, a bettor needs Wembanyama to win more than three-quarters of the time simply to justify the implied probability. That is a difficult standard for a season-long award requiring months of health and availability.

Wembanyama’s previous two seasons demonstrate that the eligibility risk is real. He missed the award threshold in 2024-25 and only secured qualification late in the 2025-26 campaign.

That creates the clearest argument against paying the current number. A player can be overwhelmingly likely to win the award when eligible while still carrying meaningful injury risk across an 82-game season.

If the market moves toward -250 or -275, the wager becomes easier to justify. At -400, the return becomes extremely difficult to recommend before the season begins.

NBA DPOY Prediction: Victor Wembanyama.

Betting View: Prefer -300 or better. Do not chase significantly beyond -350.

Chet Holmgren DPOY Prediction

Chet Holmgren is our best overall DPOY value at +1200.

Holmgren finished second in last season’s voting and joined Wembanyama as one of the two leading vote-getters for the NBA All-Defensive First Team.

Oklahoma City provides nearly ideal team context. The Thunder have won at an elite level for multiple seasons and enter 2026-27 with a market projection close to 59 victories.

That means Holmgren does not need Oklahoma City to surprise anyone. He needs the Thunder defense to finish at or near the top of the NBA while his individual rim-protection numbers remain elite.

The path to winning becomes especially clear if Wembanyama misses enough time to create an eligibility issue. Holmgren already owns the strongest voter recognition among the alternatives and would not need to introduce a completely new case in January.

There is also a scenario in which Holmgren can beat a healthy Wembanyama. If Oklahoma City finishes with the NBA’s No. 1 defense and Holmgren produces a major statistical leap while San Antonio slips defensively, the gap could become much smaller than last year’s voting indicated.

The +1200 price compensates bettors for that lower probability much better than Wembanyama’s current negative number.

Best NBA DPOY Value: Chet Holmgren at +1200 or better.

Ausar Thompson DPOY Prediction

Ausar Thompson is our preferred DPOY longshot at +2500.

Thompson finished third in last season’s voting and earned All-Defensive First Team recognition, establishing him as the league’s most credible perimeter challenger to the dominant rim-protecting big men.

Detroit’s team context makes the wager more attractive. The Pistons are projected around 51 wins after building one of the strongest defensive teams in the Eastern Conference.

That is critical because wing defenders need team success more than centers do. Blocks provide an easy statistical argument for Wembanyama and Holmgren. Thompson’s value comes from switching, disrupting primary scorers, creating turnovers and defending multiple positions.

Those skills are harder to summarize in one box-score column, so Detroit needs to remain an elite defensive team for voters to recognize the full impact.

The biggest obstacle is award history. DPOY overwhelmingly favors big men because rim protection affects every opponent possession and produces visible counting statistics.

Still, Thompson already finished third once. If Detroit jumps to No. 1 in defensive efficiency and Wembanyama or Holmgren misses time, a 25-1 ticket could become extremely valuable.

Best DPOY Longshot: Ausar Thompson at +2500 or better.

Rudy Gobert DPOY Prediction

Rudy Gobert remains impossible to completely dismiss at +4000.

Gobert has already won Defensive Player of the Year four times, tying the NBA record. He also finished fourth in last season’s voting and again earned All-Defensive First Team honors.

Minnesota is projected around 50 wins and should remain capable of producing an elite defensive unit. That gives Gobert the team foundation required to compete.

The primary problem is voter fatigue. The league already knows exactly what Gobert provides, and voters may require him to produce an unusually dominant season before giving him a record fifth trophy over younger candidates.

His statistical profile also has to compete directly with Wembanyama and Holmgren. Both provide similar rim-protection narratives with more offensive visibility and greater novelty.

The price partly solves the problem. Gobert near +2500 is not particularly attractive. At +4000, the return becomes more reasonable for a player with four previous wins and another realistic top-five defensive team.

Gobert Betting View: Consider only at +4000 or longer.

Evan Mobley DPOY Prediction

Evan Mobley is our favorite former-winner value at +5000.

Mobley won Defensive Player of the Year in 2024-25, so voters have already demonstrated that they view him as capable of anchoring an award-winning defense.

The current price is dramatically longer because Cleveland enters the new season with more uncertainty than San Antonio, Oklahoma City, Detroit or Minnesota.

That uncertainty is both the risk and the opportunity.

If Cleveland exceeds its current expectations and finishes near the top of the East, Mobley could quickly return to the center of the defensive conversation. His ability to protect the rim while defending in space gives him a more versatile argument than many traditional centers.

The Cavaliers need to remain strong enough defensively for the narrative to work. A brilliant individual season on a middle-of-the-pack defense is unlikely to beat Wembanyama.

At +5000, however, bettors are receiving a much larger payout on a player who won the award only two seasons earlier.

Best Former-Winner Value: Evan Mobley at +5000 or better.

Scottie Barnes DPOY Prediction

Scottie Barnes is our favorite wing value around +5000.

Barnes finished fifth in last season’s DPOY voting and earned All-Defensive Second Team honors. His defensive appeal comes from versatility rather than one specialized skill.

Toronto can use Barnes against large wings, guards and frontcourt players, allowing the Raptors to change defensive coverages without constantly substituting.

The team context is also interesting. Toronto’s current market projection sits around 45 wins, creating enough upside for the Raptors to surprise the East.

If Toronto climbs toward 50 wins and becomes a top-five defensive team, Barnes would have a natural argument as the versatile centerpiece of that improvement.

Like Thompson, he faces the historical problem of being a wing in a big-man award. Wembanyama can alter five or six shots without receiving a block. Barnes must create a similarly obvious impact through versatility, steals, blocks and team results.

That is difficult, but +5000 provides enough return to keep him on the card.

Best Wing DPOY Value: Scottie Barnes at +5000 or better.

Bam Adebayo DPOY Prediction

Bam Adebayo has spent years near the Defensive Player of the Year conversation without winning the award.

His case remains obvious to anyone watching Miami regularly. Adebayo can switch onto perimeter players, protect the paint, defend pick-and-roll actions at multiple levels and serve as the communication center of the Heat defense.

He earned another All-Defensive Second Team selection last season and remains one of the NBA’s most versatile defensive big men.

Miami’s current market projection sits around 46 wins, creating enough upside for a significant team-defense narrative if the Heat outperform expectations.

The challenge is distinguishing Adebayo’s individual case within a roster containing several elite defenders. Miami can be an excellent defensive team without voters automatically assigning all of that success to one player.

Adebayo also lacks the extreme block totals that make Wembanyama and Holmgren easier statistical selections.

At +5000, he remains interesting. At +3500 or shorter, we would rather back Holmgren, Thompson or Barnes.

Bam Adebayo Betting View: Playable at +5000 or better.

Best NBA DPOY Deep Longshots

The deeper DPOY market contains several excellent defenders, but only a few have realistic paths to winning rather than simply making an All-Defensive team.

Amen Thompson is our preferred deep longshot. Houston is projected close to the upper 40s in wins and possesses enough defensive talent to build a top-tier unit. Thompson’s ability to defend almost any perimeter assignment gives him the type of versatility that can generate significant voter attention.

OG Anunoby provides another option around +8000. New York is expected to remain an Eastern Conference contender, giving Anunoby access to nationally visible games and a strong team-success profile.

Dyson Daniels deserves monitoring after another season of All-Defensive recognition. His steal production creates the eye-catching statistical category perimeter defenders often need to compete with rim protectors.

Zach Edey provides the opposite profile. His path is almost entirely built around interior defense, rebounding and blocks. If Memphis dramatically exceeds expectations while Edey becomes one of the league’s leading shot blockers, his price could shorten quickly.

Best Deep DPOY Longshot: Amen Thompson at +7500 or better.

Why Team Defense Matters for NBA DPOY

Defensive Player of the Year is an individual award, but team performance remains one of the most important parts of the handicap.

Voters generally want the winner to anchor a playoff-caliber defense. An elite defender on a 30-win team faces a much more difficult path than an equally productive defender leading a top-three seed.

This creates a major advantage for Wembanyama and Holmgren. San Antonio and Oklahoma City enter the season with the two highest win projections in the league.

Detroit also provides Thompson with a compelling foundation. The Pistons are projected around 51 wins after establishing one of the strongest defenses in the East.

Minnesota, Cleveland, Toronto, Miami, Houston and New York all project as competitive teams, keeping their leading defenders viable. The difference is how clearly voters can identify one player as the reason the defense succeeds.

Daily defensive trends, matchup efficiency and team performance can be followed through the latest ScoresAndStats NBA picks and predictions once the regular season begins.

NBA DPOY 65-Game Eligibility Rule

Availability remains one of the most important variables in every NBA award market.

Players generally need at least 65 qualifying regular-season appearances to remain eligible for Defensive Player of the Year. The rule includes specific minutes requirements, with limited exceptions under the collective bargaining agreement.

This creates additional risk for preseason futures because a player can produce the best defensive season in basketball and still become ineligible after missing too many games.

Wembanyama provides the clearest example. He would have been a leading candidate in 2024-25 but missed the eligibility threshold. Last season, his qualification remained uncertain until late in the schedule.

That health history is the strongest argument against laying a large negative price in August.

Holmgren has also experienced significant injury interruptions during his career, so +1200 is not risk-free. The difference is that his price offers substantially more compensation for that uncertainty.

When betting DPOY futures, availability should therefore be treated as part of the price rather than a separate issue.

Previous NBA DPOY Picks Update

The previous ScoresAndStats update was published after the 2025-26 award had already been decided and included an early 2027 watchlist.

Wembanyama was our early repeat prediction, Holmgren was identified as the best challenger, Thompson was the preferred longshot and Anunoby was the wing-defense sleeper.

The sportsbook market has largely confirmed that early hierarchy.

Wembanyama opened as an overwhelming odds-on favorite. Holmgren is clearly second. Thompson occupies the third position, while the rest of the market begins considerably farther down the board.

The biggest change is price. We now know how aggressively sportsbooks are willing to price Wembanyama, which makes Holmgren considerably more interesting as an actual wager than he was as a simple early watchlist candidate.

The previous season’s actual result also reinforces the main lesson. Wembanyama was the correct prediction, but once the price became extremely short, the betting value became far less attractive than the probability of winning.

Recent NBA Defensive Player of the Year Winners

Recent DPOY history strongly favors frontcourt defenders.

Wembanyama, Mobley, Gobert and Jaren Jackson Jr. have won the last four awards surrounding Marcus Smart’s rare guard victory in 2021-22.

Gobert has won four times, while Wembanyama now has the opportunity to begin a similar multi-year run at only 22 years old.

The positional trend matters because centers and power forwards influence more shots around the basket and usually produce more visible block and rebounding statistics.

How to Bet NBA Defensive Player of the Year Odds

1. Separate the Best Prediction From the Best Bet

Wembanyama illustrates the difference perfectly.

He can be the correct prediction while Holmgren remains the better wager. One question asks who is most likely to win. The other asks whether the sportsbook is paying enough relative to the player’s probability.

2. Start With Team Defense

Before betting a defender at 50-1 or 80-1, determine whether his team can realistically finish among the league’s best defenses.

A player producing two steals per game on the NBA’s 22nd-ranked defense will have a difficult time defeating an elite rim protector anchoring the No. 1 defense.

3. Monitor Games Played Early

Eligibility can change the entire market.

If Wembanyama misses eight or nine games before January, his negative price may immediately become much more vulnerable. Holmgren and Thompson would shorten rapidly even if their own statistics remain unchanged.

4. Do Not Overpay for Blocks

Blocks are important, but they are not the entire award.

A defender who chases blocks while compromising the team scheme can be less valuable than a player who prevents opponents from reaching the rim in the first place.

The strongest DPOY cases combine counting statistics, team efficiency, matchup versatility and visible impact.

5. Respect the Big-Man Trend

Wing defenders can win, but history creates a much easier route for elite rim protectors.

That does not eliminate Thompson, Barnes, Amen Thompson or Anunoby. It means their odds need to be substantially longer than an equally strong center because their path to voter recognition is more difficult.

6. Shop Aggressively for Futures Prices

The difference between Gobert +3000 and +4000 or Anunoby +7000 and +8000 is significant on a season-long wager.

Bettors can compare available operators through the ScoresAndStats sportsbook reviews before placing an NBA futures position.

7. Leave Room for In-Season Bets

There is no requirement to build an entire DPOY portfolio in August.

Team defensive ratings become much more useful after 15 or 20 games. By then, bettors can see which rotations work, which contenders remain healthy and which longshots have actually produced award-level impact.

General futures strategy, implied probability and bankroll management are covered in more detail through the ScoresAndStats Expert Betting Guide.

Final NBA DPOY Picks and Predictions

Wembanyama remains the obvious prediction. He is already the best rim protector in basketball, the defending unanimous winner and the defensive centerpiece of a Spurs team projected to challenge for the NBA’s best record.

The current -325 price is the problem. Season-long health risk makes it difficult to recommend a large negative number in August when one extended absence could destroy the ticket.

Holmgren is therefore our best actual wager at +1200. He finished second last season, plays for an elite Oklahoma City team and becomes the immediate favorite if Wembanyama loses eligibility.

Thompson is the best longshot. Detroit’s defensive identity and 50-plus-win expectations give him better team context than most perimeter defenders, while last season’s third-place finish proves voters already recognize his impact.

Mobley is the former-winner value at +5000, Barnes is the preferred wing bet and Amen Thompson provides the best deep-longshot payout.

Our NBA DPOY Prediction: Victor Wembanyama.

Our Best NBA DPOY Bet: Chet Holmgren at +1200 or better.

Our Best NBA DPOY Longshot: Ausar Thompson at +2500 or better.

Our Best Deep Longshot: Amen Thompson at +7500 or better.

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