Raiders at Patriots Best Pick, Prediction and Odds

A 14-win team is laying 8.5 at home to a 3-win team. I am taking the Patriots and laying the points.

I will say up front that this is the call on this card I like least, and that the Raiders are 3-0 and the Patriots are 1-2. My rule still says New England by a distance, so New England is the pick.

My number is plain arithmetic. I take each team’s points differential per game from last season, subtract one from the other, and set the result against the spread. Two points or more between my number and the market’s is a bet. Inside two points, I pass.

Pick: Patriots -8.5 (-110)

New England went 14-3 last season, scoring 490 and allowing 320. That is plus 170, or plus 10.0 a game. Las Vegas went 3-14, scoring 241 and allowing 432. Minus 191, or minus 11.2 a game.

My number is New England by 21. The market asks for 8.5. That gap is twelve and a half points.

Split it by venue and it gets wider. The Patriots were plus 10.0 a game at home last season, 28.2 scored and 18.2 allowed. The Raiders went 1-7 on the road, scoring 11.5 and allowing 27.5, which is minus 16. One against the other is 26 points.

Seventeen games of margins say the same. New England won by more than 8.5 in 7 of its 17 and did not lose a game by more than seven. Las Vegas lost by more than 8.5 in 9 of 17.

The doubt, and it is a big one

This season has gone the other way. Las Vegas is 3-0: 27-13 at home to Miami, 26-14 at the Chargers, then 35-27 at New Orleans on Sunday. That is plus 34 in three games, and 29.3 points a game from a team that scored 14.2 last season.

New England is 1-2. A 13-10 loss at Seattle, a 20-3 home win over Pittsburgh, and a 35-6 loss at Jacksonville. Thirty-six points in three games is 12.0 a game.

And the last time these two met, Las Vegas won 20-13 in New England, on 7 September 2025. Our game records begin in 2025, so that is the only meeting there is to cite.

So why stay with the Patriots? Three games against seventeen. The Raiders scored 20 points or fewer in 13 of their 17 games last season, and three good weeks do not erase that. New England’s 35-6 loss was one road game. The home win over Pittsburgh allowed three points.

If you think three weeks tell you more than a full season, you should pass rather than take Las Vegas. I think the season is the better evidence, and the price has not caught up with it.

Where the price stands

This is an early line, read 13 days before kickoff, from only two US sportsbooks: DraftKings has New England -8.5 at -110 and William Hill -8.5 at -115. Both were read on 28 September and were last posted on 10 September, before either team had played a game this season.

That is the weakness of this page, and I would rather say it than hide it. After 3-0 against 1-2, the number you find today may well be shorter than 8.5. On my rule that only makes it a better bet.

My rule backs New England at anything up to -19, and it is a pass only past that. A number that wide tells you how far last season sits from this one.

The total

DraftKings has 44.5 and William Hill 43.5. No bet.

The total runs the same way as the side: each team’s scoring against the other’s points allowed, averaged, then added. The Raiders scored 14.2 and allowed 25.4, the Patriots scored 28.8 and allowed 18.8. That comes to 43.6, inside a point of both books.

This season does not help either. The Patriots’ three games have totalled 23, 23 and 41 points, the Raiders’ 40, 40 and 62. Nothing there is two points from the market.

The moneyline

DraftKings has New England -400 and Las Vegas +310. With the margin taken out, that is about a 23 percent chance for the Raiders. The Raiders won 3 of 17 last season, 18 percent, and 3 of 3 this season, so that price sits between the two samples.

I am not paying -400. The points are the bet.

What would change it

My number comes from last season, so a price change alone does not move me off New England until it passes 19. A line that has come down toward 6 or 7 is the same bet at a better number. The full version of this page re-reads every book the week of the game.

Patriots -8.5. Lay the points.

Las Vegas Raiders at New England Patriots, Sunday 11 October 2026, 1:00 PM ET. Prices: two US sportsbooks via Nucleus, read 28 September 2026, 15:10 UTC, as last posted on 10 September. Results for 2025 and 2026: Nucleus.