Predators at Maple Leafs Best Pick, Prediction and Odds

The Predators lost 24 of 41 on the road last season. Our number makes Toronto 51.2%: bet the Maple Leafs at +117 or better, Nashville at +129 or better.

Our number is 51.2% for the Toronto Maple Leafs and 48.8% for the Nashville Predators. No line had been posted for this game as of 28 September 2026. A side becomes a bet when the market, with its margin removed, sits at least 5 points below our number for it.

How the number is built

The method is one clause: our home win chance is the average of the home team’s 2025-26 home win rate and the visitor’s 2025-26 road loss rate, with a win in overtime or a shootout counted as a win.

The Maple Leafs went 18-15-8 at home last season: 18 wins, 15 regulation losses and 8 losses after regulation. That is a 43.9% home win rate over 41 games. The Predators went 17-17-7 on the road, so they lost 24 of 41, a 58.5% road loss rate. The average of 43.9 and 58.5 is 51.2 for the Maple Leafs, and 48.8 for the Predators.

Toronto won fewer than half its home games and is still the side our number favours. That comes from the visitor’s half: Nashville lost more often on the road than Toronto did at home.

It is a new season. Rosters change over a summer, and nothing on this page measures what changed. The 2026-27 season opened on 29 September, and no game from it is in these figures.

The Maple Leafs at home, the Predators on the road

At home, the Maple Leafs scored 3.29 goals a game and allowed 3.54. The Predators on the road scored 2.93 and allowed 3.34. That is 0.36 goals a game more scored by the home side, and 0.20 more allowed.

Both sides were outscored in these conditions. Toronto’s home games averaged 6.83 goals between the two teams; Nashville’s road games averaged 6.27.

Toronto was worse away from home, 14-21-6. Nashville was better at home, 21-17-3.

Across the full season the Maple Leafs finished 32-36-14 with 78 points and were outscored by 46 goals, scoring 3.09 a game and allowing 3.65. Fourteen of their losses came after regulation, and they went 14-4-14 in one-goal games. They did not reach the playoffs.

The Predators finished 38-34-10 with 86 points and were outscored by 22 goals, scoring 3.01 a game and allowing 3.28. They did not reach the playoffs either.

The teams met twice in 2025-26 and split, each winning at home in regulation. Toronto won 7-4 on 14 October. Nashville won 5-3 on 20 December. Two games prove nothing about a third.

The price

There is no line yet, so the page states the prices at which this becomes a bet.

The Maple Leafs need the market to rate them at 46.2% or less, with the margin removed. At +117 or better, that holds whatever Nashville is priced at. The Predators need 43.8% or less, which +129 or better guarantees.

Our number has Toronto 1.2 points above even. That is close enough that each side is a bet only as a clear underdog.

Pick: Maple Leafs at +117 or better, Predators at +129 or better

Our number is 51.2% for Toronto. With no line posted, the call is the pair of prices above. Between them, pass.

It rests on 82 games from last season: 41 at home for the Maple Leafs and 41 on the road for the Predators.

What changes it

The price. The full page re-reads the line on the day of the game. A price slightly short of either break point may still qualify once the book’s margin is taken out, and that check is made against the posted pair.

The summer is the other thing. A season of home and road results says how these teams played in 2025-26. Nothing on this page says who is in either lineup on 6 October. Check the lineups before you bet.

Predators at Maple Leafs, Tuesday 6 October, 7:00 PM ET, Scotiabank Arena. Results: ESPN, read 28 September 2026 (2025-26 regular season and playoffs). No line posted as of 28 September 2026. Nothing here states who is available.