NHL
SpreadTotalMoneyNYI+1.5U 5.5+130NYR-1.5O 5.5-155
NHL · Tuesday 6 October
Islanders at Rangers Best Pick, Prediction and Odds
Take the Islanders on the moneyline at +130. Our number gives them 58.5%, and the price gives them 41.7%; they stay a bet at any price of -115 or longer.
The New York Rangers are -155 and the New York Islanders +130 at DraftKings, which is a 41.7% chance for the Islanders once the margin is removed. Our number gives the Islanders 58.5%. The gap is 16.8 points. A side is a bet when the gap is 5 points or more, so the Islanders are a bet.
When this page first went up on 29 September, no line had been posted, and it named two prices: the Islanders at -115 or better, or the Rangers at +174 or better. The line is now posted. The Islanders price qualifies and the Rangers price does not.
How the number is built
One clause: our home win chance is the average of the home team’s 2025-26 home win rate and the visitor’s 2025-26 road loss rate, where a win in overtime or a shootout counts as a win.
The Rangers went 14-20-7 at home, meaning 14 wins, 20 regulation losses and 7 losses after regulation. That is a 34.1% home win rate over 41 games. The Islanders went 21-17-3 on the road and lost 20 of 41, a 48.8% road loss rate. The average is 41.5% for the Rangers, 58.5% for the Islanders.
The margin is the few points a book builds into both prices so that they add to more than 100%. Removed from -155 and +130, it leaves the Rangers at 58.3% and the Islanders at 41.7%. The market and our number point opposite ways, by nearly the same distance from even.
It is a new season. Rosters change over a summer, and this page has no measure of what changed. Last season is the only evidence in hand: 41 home games for the Rangers and 41 road games for the Islanders. No game from the 2026-27 season is in these figures.
The Rangers at home, the Islanders on the road
The Rangers at home scored 2.59 goals a game and allowed 3.02. The Islanders on the road scored 2.76 and allowed 2.90. The visitor scored 0.17 a game more and allowed 0.12 fewer.
The Rangers were better away from New York. Their road record was 20-19-2, six more wins than at home. The method uses only the home half, and it is the lower of the two. The Islanders were close to the same team in both buildings: 22-17-2 at home and 21-17-3 away.
The Islanders finished 43-34-5 with 91 points and were outscored by 8 goals. Their one-goal record was 27-11-5, so 27 of their 43 wins came by a single goal. The Rangers finished 34-39-9 with 77 points, outscored by 12. Neither team reached the playoffs.
The teams met four times in 2025-26 and the Islanders won all four. They won 5-0 and 2-1 at Madison Square Garden, on 8 November and 29 January, and 2-0 and 5-2 at home, on 27 December and 28 January. That is 14 goals to 3. Four games are a small sample, and the method does not use them.
Pick: Islanders moneyline at -115 or better
Islanders on the moneyline. At +130 the gap is 16.8 points against a 5-point threshold.
The price has moved toward the Rangers. It opened at Rangers -130 and Islanders +110, which was 45.7% for the Islanders with the margin removed and a gap of 12.8 points. Read on 6 October 2026 at 08:14 UTC, DraftKings via ESPN, the Rangers were -155 and the Islanders +130.
What changes it
A shorter Islanders price. They stay a bet down to -115, whatever the Rangers are priced at, because -115 is 53.5% before the margin comes out and 58.5 less 5 is 53.5. The Rangers would need +174 or longer, and at -155 they are a long way from it.
A price is only one of the unknowns. This page states nothing about either lineup on 6 October. Check the lineups before you bet.
The total and the puck line
The total is 5.5, over -120 and under +100. The Rangers’ games went over 5.5 in 39 of 82 and the Islanders’ in 41 of 82. The Rangers’ home games averaged 5.61 goals, the Islanders’ road games 5.66.
The two over rates, 47.6% and 50.0%, average 48.8%. The over at -120 is priced at 52.2% with the margin removed, so the under is 47.8% against our 51.2%, 3.4 points apart. Pass on the total.
The puck line has the Rangers -1.5 at +170 and the Islanders +1.5 at -205. The Rangers won by two goals or more in 23 of 82 games. The Islanders lost by two or more in 23 of 82. That puts Rangers -1.5 at 28.0% against 35.5% priced, and Islanders +1.5 at 72.0% against 64.5%. By the same 5-point test, Islanders +1.5 also qualifies, at 7.5 points. It is the same side at a shorter price, and the call on this page is the moneyline.
Islanders at Rangers, Tuesday 6 October, 7:30 PM ET, Madison Square Garden. Prices: DraftKings via ESPN, read 6 October 2026, 08:14 UTC. Results: ESPN, read 6 October 2026. Nothing here states who is available.