NHL
SpreadTotalMoneyWIL-1.5U 6.5-112SAB+1.5O 6.5-108
NHL · Tuesday 6 October
Wild at Sabres Best Pick, Prediction and Odds
Our number leans to the Sabres by 4.1 points. No bet.
The Buffalo Sabres are -108 and the Minnesota Wild -112 at DraftKings, which is a 49.6% chance for the Sabres once the margin is removed. Our number gives the Sabres 53.7%. The gap is 4.1 points. A side is a bet when the gap is 5 points or more, so this is a pass.
When this page first went up on 28 September, no line had been posted, and the call was the Sabres at +106 or better or the Wild at +142 or better. The posted price, Sabres -108, reaches neither, so the call is now no bet.
How the number is built
One clause: our home win chance is the average of the home team’s 2025-26 home win rate and the visitor’s 2025-26 road loss rate, where a win in overtime or a shootout counts as a win.
The Sabres went 26-10-5 at home, meaning 26 wins, 10 regulation losses and 5 losses after regulation. That is a 63.4% home win rate over 41 games. The Wild went 23-14-4 on the road and lost 18 of 41, a 43.9% road loss rate. The average is 53.7% for the Sabres, 46.3% for the Wild.
The margin is the few points a book builds into both prices so that they add to more than 100%. Removed from -108 and -112, it leaves the Sabres at 49.6% and the Wild at 50.4%.
It is a new season. Rosters change over a summer, and this page has no measure of what changed. Last season is the only evidence in hand: 41 home games for the Sabres and 41 road games for the Wild. No 2026-27 game is in these figures.
The Sabres at home, the Wild on the road
The Sabres at home scored 3.63 goals a game and allowed 2.90. The Wild on the road scored 3.46 and allowed 3.05. Both sides outscored their opponents in these games, the Sabres by more: 0.73 a game against 0.41.
Each half is a winning record, and that is why the number lands near even. The Sabres lost 15 of 41 at home. The Wild lost 18 of 41 on the road, four of them after regulation. Those three extra Minnesota losses are what move our number 3.7 points toward Buffalo.
The Sabres finished 50-23-9 with 109 points and outscored opponents by 0.57 goals a game. The Wild finished 46-24-12 with 104 points, ahead by 0.39 a game. Both won a playoff round: Buffalo beat Boston 4-2 and lost 4-3 to Montreal, Minnesota beat Dallas 4-2 and lost 4-1 to Colorado.
The Wild played 27 of their 82 games past 60 minutes, the Sabres 17. In one-goal games the Sabres went 15-3-9 and the Wild 20-5-12.
The teams met twice in 2025-26 and split them, both after regulation. The Sabres won 3-2 in a shootout in Minnesota on 29 November. The Wild won 5-4 in overtime in Buffalo on 17 January. Two games are a small sample, and the method does not use them.
Pick: no bet
No bet on the moneyline. The gap is 4.1 points against a 5-point threshold.
The prices opened the other way, Sabres -112 and Wild -108, which made the Sabres 50.4% and the gap 3.3 points. Since then the price has moved toward Minnesota, which widened the gap but not to 5. Read on 6 October 2026 at 08:14 UTC, DraftKings via ESPN, the Sabres were -108 and the Wild -112.
What changes it
A longer price on either side. The Sabres become a bet at +106 or longer, whatever the Wild are priced at. The Wild become a bet at +142 or longer.
A price is only one of the unknowns. This page states nothing about either lineup on 6 October. Check the lineups before you bet.
The total and the puck line
The total is 6.5, over +102 and under -122. The Sabres’ games went over 6.5 in 38 of 82 and the Wild’s in 42 of 82. The Sabres’ home games averaged 6.53 goals, the Wild’s road games 6.51.
The two over rates, 46.3% and 51.2%, average 48.8%. The over at +102 is priced at 47.4% with the margin removed, 1.4 points away. Pass on the total.
The puck line has the Wild -1.5 at +220 and the Sabres +1.5 at -270. The Wild won by two goals or more in 26 of 82 games. The Sabres lost by two or more in 20 of 82. Averaged, Wild -1.5 lands 28.0% of the time against 30.0% priced, which leaves the Sabres +1.5 at 72.0% against 70.0%. A 2.0-point gap is short of 5. Pass on the puck line.
Wild at Sabres, Tuesday 6 October, 7:00 PM ET, KeyBank Center. Prices: DraftKings via ESPN, read 6 October 2026, 08:14 UTC. Results: ESPN, read 6 October 2026. Nothing here states who is available.