Kraken at Red Wings Best Pick, Prediction and Odds

Our number has Detroit at 57.3%. The Red Wings are a bet at -109 or better, the Kraken at +166 or longer.

Our number gives the Detroit Red Wings a 57.3% chance to beat the Seattle Kraken at home, and the Kraken 42.7%. No line had been posted as of 28 September 2026. The threshold for a bet is 5 points between our number and the market’s, so the Red Wings become a bet when the market puts them at 52.3% or lower, and the Kraken when it puts them at 37.7% or lower.

How the number is built

The method is one clause: our home win chance is the average of the home team’s 2025-26 home win rate and the visitor’s 2025-26 road loss rate, with a win in overtime or a shootout counted as a win.

The Red Wings went 21-16-4 at home last season: 21 wins, 16 regulation losses and 4 losses after regulation. That is a 51.2% home win rate over 41 games. The Kraken went 15-20-6 on the road, so they lost 26 of 41, a 63.4% road loss rate. The average of 51.2 and 63.4 is 57.3.

Most of the number comes from the visitor. Seattle’s 15 road wins were four fewer than its 19 at home, where it went 19-17-5.

The market’s figure, once a line exists, is the moneyline with the margin removed. The margin is the few points a book builds into both prices so that they add up to more than 100%.

It is a new season, and rosters change over a summer. The evidence in hand is last season: 41 home games for the Red Wings and 41 road games for the Kraken. Any game either team plays between 29 September and 9 October is not in these figures.

The Red Wings at home, the Kraken on the road

At home, the Red Wings scored 3.10 goals a game and allowed 3.34. They won more than half their home games while being outscored in them. The Kraken on the road scored 2.56 and allowed 3.37, a gap of 0.81 a game.

Detroit’s road record, 20-15-6, was close to its home record. The Red Wings finished 41-31-10 with 92 points and were outscored by 17 goals over 82 games. In one-goal games they went 18-5-10. They played no playoff games.

The Kraken finished 34-37-11 with 79 points and were outscored by 37 goals over 82 games. They played no playoff games either.

The teams met twice in 2025-26 and Detroit won both: 4-2 at home on 18 November and 4-3 in Seattle on 6 December. Two games prove nothing about a third.

Pick: Red Wings at -109 or better, Kraken at +166 or longer

No line yet, so no bet yet. Our 57.3% for Detroit sets the two prices at which a side clears the 5-point threshold.

A moneyline converts to a chance. -109 means risking 109 to win 100, so the chance it implies is 109 divided by 209, or 52.2%. That is 5.1 points under our 57.3. Anything paying more than -109, such as -105 or even money, implies less and is also a bet.

On the other side, +166 means risking 100 to win 166: 100 divided by 266 is 37.6%, 5.1 points under our 42.7 for the Kraken.

Removing the book’s margin only lowers a price’s chance, so at those prices either team is a bet whatever the other side is priced at. A slightly shorter price can still clear the threshold once the margin is out, and that is checked against the line on the day.

What changes it

The price. Between -109 on Detroit and +166 on Seattle, the call depends on how much margin the book has built in, and the line is read on the day to settle it. A Detroit price of -130, for instance, is 56.5% before the margin comes out, 0.8 points under our 57.3.

The summer is the other thing. The 82 games behind our number all come from 2025-26, and they say nothing about who is in either lineup on 9 October. Check the lineups before you bet.

Kraken at Red Wings, Friday 9 October, 7:00 PM ET, Little Caesars Arena. No line posted as of 28 September 2026. Results: ESPN, read 28 September 2026. Nothing here states who is available.