NHL
SpreadTotalMoneyDET+1.5U 6.5+170MTL-1.5O 6.5-205
NHL · Saturday 10 October
Red Wings at Canadiens Final Score: Canadiens Win 1-0 in a Shootout
Final: Montreal Canadiens 1, Detroit Red Wings 0 in a shootout, Saturday 10 October at Bell Centre.
Our call lost. Before the game this page said: “Bet the Red Wings at +170.” The Red Wings moneyline lost: Detroit lost 1-0 in a shootout.
What decided it
The teams were level at 0-0 after overtime, and Montreal won the shootout. Montreal had 30 shots to Detroit’s 30, and scored 0 power-play goals to 0.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Detroit Red Wings | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Montreal Canadiens | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
The last DraftKings moneyline ESPN holds for the game is Detroit Red Wings +160, Montreal Canadiens -192, with a total of 6.5. Montreal, the favourite, won. The 1 goals went under the total.
What comes next
Detroit plays next against the Chicago Blackhawks on Thursday 29 October. Montreal plays next at the Dallas Stars on Thursday 29 October.
The prediction, as published before the game
Everything below is the page as it stood before the game, kept unchanged as the record. It was titled “Red Wings at Canadiens Best Pick, Prediction and Odds”.
Bet the Red Wings at +170. The market has Montreal far above what last season’s results support.
The Montreal Canadiens are -205 and the Detroit Red Wings +170 at DraftKings. With the margin removed, that is a 64.5% chance for Montreal and 35.5% for Detroit. Our number gives the Red Wings 45.1%. The gap is 9.6 points, and a side is a bet when the gap is 5 points or more.
When this page first went up on 29 September, no line had been posted, and the call was the Canadiens at +101 or longer or the Red Wings at +150 or longer. Detroit is now +170, longer than +150. The full number agrees with that page: the Red Wings are the bet.
How the number is built
One clause: our home win chance is the average of the home team’s 2025-26 home win rate and the visitor’s 2025-26 road loss rate, where a win in overtime or a shootout counts as a win. Games at a neutral site are left out of both.
The Canadiens went 24-15-2 at home, meaning 24 wins, 15 regulation losses and 2 losses after regulation. That is a 58.5% home win rate over 41 games. The Red Wings went 20-15-6 on the road and lost 21 of 41, a 51.2% road loss rate. The average is 54.9% for Montreal, which leaves 45.1% for Detroit.
The margin is the few points a book builds into both prices so that they add to more than 100%. At -205 and +170 the two prices add to 104.3%. Removed, it leaves the Canadiens at 64.5% and the Red Wings at 35.5%.
Our number has Montreal as the favourite too, just by much less. A gap of 9.6 points is large, and it should be read for what it is. The number is built from last season’s home and road results only: 41 home games for the Canadiens and 41 road games for the Red Wings. No game from 2026-27 is in it, and it has no measure of what changed over the summer. The market prices things it does not see.
The Canadiens at home, the Red Wings on the road
At home, the Canadiens scored 3.34 goals a game and allowed 3.10. The Red Wings on the road scored 2.78 and allowed 2.95. Montreal was ahead by 0.24 a game in these games, Detroit behind by 0.17.
Montreal won 24 games at home and 24 on the road, a 58.5% rate in both. Their road record, 24-9-8, had fewer regulation losses than the home one. The Red Wings won 20 of their 41 road games. That road half is what holds up Detroit’s side of the number, and it was close to even.
Across the full season the Canadiens finished 48-24-10 with 106 points and outscored opponents by 27 goals, 0.33 a game. They beat the Tampa Bay Lightning 4-3 and the Buffalo Sabres 4-3, then lost 4-1 to the Carolina Hurricanes. The Red Wings finished 41-31-10 with 92 points, were outscored by 17 goals and missed the playoffs.
Both teams lived in close games. The Canadiens went 23-6-10 in 39 one-goal games, and 24 of their 82 went past regulation. The Red Wings went 18-5-10 in 33, and 21 of their games went past regulation.
The teams met three times in 2025-26, and Montreal won two, both in Detroit: 5-1 on 9 October and 3-1 on 19 March. The Red Wings won 4-0 in Montreal on 10 January. Three games prove nothing, and the method does not use them.
Pick: Red Wings +170
Bet the Red Wings on the moneyline at +170. The gap is 9.6 points against a 5-point threshold.
The line opened at Canadiens -218 and Red Wings +180 and has moved toward Detroit since, which takes some of the price away. Read on 9 October 2026 at 15:17 UTC, DraftKings via ESPN, Montreal was -205 and Detroit +170.
What changes it
A long move toward Detroit. Against Montreal at -205, the Red Wings stay a bet down to +123; at +120 the gap is 4.8, a pass. At +150 or longer the Red Wings are a bet whatever Montreal is priced at. The Canadiens would need +101 or longer, the other side of this line entirely.
The price is one unknown. This page states nothing about either lineup on 10 October. Check the lineups before you bet.
The total and the puck line
The total is 6.5, over -105 and under -115. The Canadiens’ games went over 6.5 in 44 of 82 and the Red Wings’ in 37 of 82. Montreal’s home games averaged 6.44 goals, Detroit’s road games 5.73.
The two over rates, 53.7% and 45.1%, average 49.4%. The over at -105 is priced at 48.9% with the margin removed. The gap is 0.5 points. Pass on the total.
The puck line has the Canadiens -1.5 at +114 and the Red Wings +1.5 at -135. Montreal won by two goals or more in 25 of 82 games. Detroit lost by two or more in 26 of 82. Averaged, the Canadiens -1.5 land 31.1% of the time against 44.9% priced, so the Red Wings +1.5 land 68.9% against 55.1% priced. That is a gap of 13.8 points. Our method bets the moneyline only, so on the puck line a gap this size is a lean: the Red Wings +1.5, at a price of -135. The bet stays the moneyline at +170.
Red Wings at Canadiens, Saturday 10 October, 7:00 PM ET, Bell Centre. Prices: DraftKings via ESPN, read 9 October 2026, 15:17 UTC. Results: ESPN, read 9 October 2026. Nothing here states who is available.