Wild at Panthers Final Score: Wild Win 4-1

Final: Minnesota Wild 4, Florida Panthers 1, Saturday 10 October at Amerant Bank Arena.

Our call won. Before the game this page said: “Bet the Wild at +120.” The Wild moneyline won: Minnesota won 4-1.

What decided it

Minnesota won the first period by 2. Minnesota had 29 shots to Florida’s 30, and scored 1 power-play goal to 0.

The last DraftKings moneyline ESPN holds for the game is Minnesota Wild +114, Florida Panthers -135, with a total of 5.5. Florida, the favourite, lost. The 5 goals went under the total.

What comes next

Minnesota plays next against the New York Islanders on Thursday 29 October. Florida plays next against the Winnipeg Jets on Friday 30 October.

The prediction, as published before the game

Everything below is the page as it stood before the game, kept unchanged as the record. It was titled “Wild at Panthers Best Pick, Prediction and Odds”.

Bet the Wild at +120. Our number has this game close to even, and the price has Minnesota a clear underdog.

The Florida Panthers are -142 and the Minnesota Wild +120 at DraftKings. With the margin removed, that is a 56.3% chance for Florida and 43.7% for Minnesota. Our number gives the Wild 49.3%. The gap is 5.6 points, and a side is a bet when the gap is 5 points or more.

The page that went up on 29 September made the same call at a longer price: the Wild at +124, with our number at 50.0% against the market’s 42.8%, a gap of 7.2. Two things have moved since. The price came in from +124 to +120, and one Panthers game left our figures (below). Both cut the edge. It still clears, by six tenths of a point.

How the number is built

One clause: our home win chance is the average of the home team’s 2025-26 home win rate and the visitor’s 2025-26 road loss rate, where a win in overtime or a shootout counts as a win. Games at a neutral site are left out of both.

The Panthers went 23-14-3 at home: 23 wins, 14 regulation losses and 3 losses after regulation, a 57.5% home win rate over 40 games. The Wild went 23-14-4 on the road and lost 18 of 41, a 43.9% road loss rate. The average is 50.7% for Florida, which leaves 49.3% for Minnesota.

The game left out is the Winter Classic. On 2 January 2026 the New York Rangers beat the Panthers 5-1 at loanDepot park in Miami, and ESPN lists it at a neutral site with Florida as the home side. The page of 28 September counted it as a Panthers home game. Counted, our Wild figure would be 50.0% and the gap 6.3. The bet does not depend on that one game either way.

The margin is the few points a book builds into both prices so that they add to more than 100%. At -142 and +120 the two prices add to 104.1%. Removed, it leaves Florida at 56.3% and Minnesota at 43.7%.

It is a new season, and last season is the only evidence in hand: 40 home games for the Panthers and 41 road games for the Wild. Rosters change over a summer. This page has no measure of what changed, and no game from 2026-27 is in these figures.

The Panthers at home, the Wild on the road

At home the Panthers scored 3.30 goals a game and allowed 2.95. The Wild on the road scored 3.46 and allowed 3.05. Both were ahead in these games, Minnesota by 0.41 a game and Florida by 0.35.

Florida were two teams. They went 17-23-1 on the road, a 41.5% win rate, and were outscored there by 0.85 a game. The method uses only the home half, which is the better one by 16 points.

The Wild won 23 games in each building, and their 56.1% road win rate matches what they did at home. They also went past regulation far more often: 27 of their 82 games against 12 for Florida. In one-goal games the Wild went 20-5-12 and the Panthers 21-6-4. The method takes those results as they fell and makes no adjustment for close games.

Across the full season the Wild finished 46-24-12 with 104 points, scoring 3.32 a game and allowing 2.93. They beat the Dallas Stars 4-2 in the playoffs and lost 4-1 to the Colorado Avalanche. The Panthers finished 40-38-4 with 84 points, scored 3.06 and allowed 3.37, and played no playoff games.

The teams met twice and split. Florida won 4-3 in overtime in Minnesota on 24 January. Minnesota won 3-2 in Florida on 26 March. Two games prove nothing, and the method does not use them.

Pick: Wild +120

Bet the Wild on the moneyline at +120. Our 49.3% against the market’s 43.7% is a gap of 5.6 points, over the 5-point threshold.

The line opened at Panthers -148 and Wild +124. Read on 9 October 2026 at 01:04 UTC, DraftKings via ESPN, it was Florida -142 and Minnesota +120.

What changes it

The price, first. Against Florida at -142, the Wild at +115 leave a gap of 5.1 and the bet stands. It holds down to +114, where the gap rounds to exactly 5.0. At +113 or shorter it is under 5, and the call becomes a pass. At +126 or longer the Wild are a bet whatever Florida is priced at.

The other unknown is who plays. This page states nothing about either lineup on 10 October. Check the lineups before you bet.

The total and the puck line

The total is 6.5, over +110 and under -130. Both teams’ games went over 6.5 in 42 of 82, a 51.2% rate. Panthers home games averaged 6.25 goals and Wild road games 6.51.

The over at +110 is priced at 45.7% with the margin removed, against the 51.2% the two teams’ games went over. That is a gap of 5.5 points. Our method bets the moneyline only, so on the total that is a lean: the over 6.5 at +110.

The puck line has the Panthers -1.5 at +180 and the Wild +1.5 at -218. Florida won by two goals or more in 19 of 82 games, and Minnesota lost by two or more in 19 of 82. Averaged, Florida -1.5 lands 23.2% of the time against 34.3% priced, so the Wild +1.5 land 76.8% against 65.7%. The gap is 11.1 points, and it is a lean too: the Wild +1.5 at -218. The bet stays the moneyline at +120.

Wild at Panthers, Saturday 10 October, 6:00 PM ET, Amerant Bank Arena. Prices: DraftKings via ESPN, read 9 October 2026, 01:04 UTC. Results: ESPN, read 9 October 2026. Nothing here states who is available.