NHL
SpreadTotalMoneyANA+1.5U 6.5+105WPG-1.5O 6.5-125
NHL · Friday 9 October
Ducks at Jets Best Pick, Prediction and Odds
No bet on the Ducks at +105. Either side turns into a bet at +123 or longer, and neither is there.
The Winnipeg Jets are -125 and the Anaheim Ducks +105 at DraftKings. With the margin removed, that is a 53.2% chance for Winnipeg and 46.8% for Anaheim. Our number has the game at 50.0% each way. The gap is 3.2 points toward the Ducks, and a side is a bet only when the gap is 5 points or more. Pass.
When this page first went up on 29 September, no line had been posted, and the call was either side at +123 or longer. The Ducks are the side with the plus price, and +105 is well short of +123. The full number agrees with that page: no bet.
How the number is built
One clause: our home win chance is the average of the home team’s 2025-26 home win rate and the visitor’s 2025-26 road loss rate, where a win in overtime or a shootout counts as a win.
The Jets went 19-16-6 at home, meaning 19 wins, 16 regulation losses and 6 losses after regulation. That is a 46.3% home win rate over 41 games. The Ducks went 19-20-2 on the road and lost 22 of 41, a 53.7% road loss rate. The average is 50.0%, which leaves the other 50.0% for Anaheim.
The two halves mirror each other. The Jets won 19 of 41 at home and the Ducks won 19 of 41 on the road, so neither side of the average leans.
The margin is the few points a book builds into both prices so that they add to more than 100%. At -125 and +105 the two prices add to 104.3%. Removed, it leaves the Jets at 53.2% and the Ducks at 46.8%.
It is a new season. Rosters change over a summer, and this page has no measure of what changed. Last season is the only evidence in hand: 41 home games for the Jets and 41 road games for the Ducks. No game from 2026-27 is in these figures. The market makes Winnipeg the favourite, and nothing here can say whether the summer earned that.
The Jets at home, the Ducks on the road
The Jets at home scored 3.02 goals a game and allowed 3.10. The Ducks on the road scored 3.12 and allowed 3.54. Both sides were outscored in these games, the Ducks by 0.42 a game and the Jets by 0.08.
The Jets were better in Winnipeg than away from it: 16-19-6 on the road, three fewer wins than at home. The Ducks went the other way, 24-13-4 at home against 19-20-2 on the road.
Across the full season the Ducks finished 43-33-6 with 92 points while being outscored by 15 goals, 0.18 a game. In one-goal games they went 24-6-6, 24 wins in 36. They then beat the Edmonton Oilers 4-2 in a playoff series and lost the next one 4-2 to the Vegas Golden Knights.
The Jets finished 35-35-12 with 82 points and were outscored by 29 goals, 0.35 a game. They played no playoff games. Their one-goal record was 16-12-12, and 19 of their games went past regulation.
The teams met three times in 2025-26 and the Ducks won all three: 4-1 in Anaheim on 9 November, 5-4 in overtime in Anaheim on 27 February, and 4-1 in Winnipeg on 10 March. Three games prove nothing, and the method does not use them.
Pick: No bet on the Ducks +105
Pass on the moneyline. The gap is 3.2 points toward Anaheim, against a 5-point threshold.
The line opened at Jets -120 and Ducks +100, which put Winnipeg at 52.2% and the gap at 2.2 points. Since then the Jets have shortened to -125 and the Ducks drifted to +105, so the gap has widened by a point. Read on 8 October 2026 at 16:36 UTC, DraftKings via ESPN, Winnipeg was -125 and Anaheim +105.
What changes it
More drift toward Winnipeg. The Ducks are a bet at +123 or longer, whatever the Jets are priced at. The Jets would need the same, +123 or longer, which would take the line all the way across.
A price is only one of the unknowns. This page states nothing about either lineup on 9 October. Check the lineups before you bet.
The total and the puck line
The total is 6.5, over +105 and under -125. The Jets’ games went over 6.5 in 39 of 82 and the Ducks’ in 49 of 82. Winnipeg’s home games averaged 6.12 goals, Anaheim’s road games 6.66.
The two over rates, 47.6% and 59.8%, average 53.7%. The over at +105 is priced at 46.8% with the margin removed. The gap is 6.9 points. Our method bets the moneyline only, so on the total a gap this size is a lean: the over 6.5 at +105. Most of it comes from Anaheim, whose games went over in 49 of 82.
The puck line has the Jets -1.5 at +195 and the Ducks +1.5 at -238. Winnipeg won by two goals or more in 19 of 82 games. Anaheim lost by two or more in 27 of 82. Averaged, Winnipeg -1.5 lands 28.0% of the time against 32.5% priced. That leans to the Ducks +1.5, by less than 5 points. Pass on the puck line.
Ducks at Jets, Friday 9 October, 8:00 PM ET, Canada Life Centre. Prices: DraftKings via ESPN, read 8 October 2026, 16:36 UTC. Results: ESPN, read 8 October 2026. Nothing here states who is available.