Ducks at Jets Best Pick, Prediction and Odds

Our number makes this a coin flip. Either side is a bet at +123 or longer, and neither is at a shorter price.

Our number gives the Winnipeg Jets a 50.0% chance to beat the Anaheim Ducks at home, and the Ducks the other 50.0%. No line had been posted as of 28 September 2026. The threshold for a bet is 5 points between our number and the market’s, so either team becomes a bet when the market puts it at 45.0% or lower.

How the number is built

The method is one clause: our home win chance is the average of the home team’s 2025-26 home win rate and the visitor’s 2025-26 road loss rate, with a win in overtime or a shootout counted as a win.

The Jets went 19-16-6 at home last season: 19 wins, 16 regulation losses and 6 losses after regulation. That is a 46.3% home win rate over 41 games. The Ducks went 19-20-2 on the road, so they lost 22 of 41, a 53.7% road loss rate. The average of 46.3 and 53.7 is 50.0.

The two halves mirror each other. The Jets won 46.3% of their home games and the Ducks won 46.3% of their road games, 19 of 41 each, so neither side of the average leans.

The market’s figure, once a line exists, is the moneyline with the margin removed. The margin is the few points a book builds into both prices so that they add up to more than 100%.

It is a new season, and rosters change over a summer. Nothing on this page measures what changed. The evidence in hand is last season: 41 home games for the Jets and 41 road games for the Ducks. Any game either team plays between 29 September and 9 October is not in these figures.

The Jets at home, the Ducks on the road

At home, the Jets scored 3.02 goals a game and allowed 3.10. The Ducks on the road scored 3.12 and allowed 3.54. Both sides were outscored in the half of the schedule this game belongs to.

The Jets were better in Winnipeg than away from it. Their road record was 16-19-6, three fewer wins than at home. The Ducks were the other way round, 24-13-4 at home against 19-20-2 on the road.

Across the full season the Ducks finished 43-33-6 with 92 points. They were outscored by 15 goals over 82 games and still won 43. The one-goal games explain most of that gap: the Ducks went 24-6-6 in them. They then beat the Edmonton Oilers 4-2 in a playoff series and lost the next one 4-2 to the Vegas Golden Knights.

The Jets finished 35-35-12 with 82 points, were outscored by 29 goals across 82 games, and played no playoff games. Their one-goal record was 16-12-12, and 19 of their games went past regulation.

The teams met three times in 2025-26 and the Ducks won all three: 4-1 in Anaheim on 9 November, 5-4 in overtime in Anaheim on 27 February, and 4-1 in Winnipeg on 10 March. Three games prove nothing about a fourth.

Pick: Jets or Ducks, at +123 or longer

No line yet, so no bet yet. At 50.0% each way, the side the market prices at +123 or longer is the bet.

A moneyline converts to a chance. +123 means risking 100 to win 123, so the chance it implies is 100 divided by 223, or 44.8%. That is 5.2 points under our 50.0.

Removing the book’s margin only lowers a price’s chance, so at +123 or longer either team is a bet whatever the other side is priced at. A shorter price can still clear the threshold once the margin is out, and that is checked against the line on the day.

What changes it

The price decides it. If the Jets open as a favorite, the Ducks at +123 or longer become the bet, and the reverse holds for the Jets. A line close to even money on both sides is a pass.

The summer is the other thing. The 82 games behind our number all come from 2025-26, and they say nothing about who is in either lineup on 9 October. Check the lineups before you bet.

Ducks at Jets, Friday 9 October, 8:00 PM ET, Canada Life Centre. No line posted as of 28 September 2026. Results: ESPN, read 28 September 2026. Nothing here states who is available.