Penguins at Blue Jackets Best Pick, Prediction and Odds

Our number leans Pittsburgh, 51.2% to 48.8%. The Penguins are a bet at +117 or longer, the Blue Jackets at +129 or longer.

Our number gives the Columbus Blue Jackets a 48.8% chance to beat the Pittsburgh Penguins at home, and the Penguins 51.2%. No line had been posted as of 28 September 2026. The threshold for a bet is 5 points between our number and the market’s, so the Blue Jackets become a bet when the market puts them at 43.8% or lower, and the Penguins when it puts them at 46.2% or lower.

How the number is built

The method is one clause: our home win chance is the average of the home team’s 2025-26 home win rate and the visitor’s 2025-26 road loss rate, with a win in overtime or a shootout counted as a win.

The Blue Jackets went 20-13-8 at home last season: 20 wins, 13 regulation losses and 8 losses after regulation. That is a 48.8% home win rate over 41 games. The Penguins went 21-12-8 on the road, so they lost 20 of 41, a 48.8% road loss rate. The average of 48.8 and 48.8 is 48.8.

The market’s figure, once a line exists, is the moneyline with the margin removed. The margin is the few points a book builds into both prices so that they add up to more than 100%.

It is a new season, and rosters change over a summer. The evidence in hand is last season: 41 home games for the Blue Jackets and 41 road games for the Penguins. Any game either team plays between 29 September and 9 October is not in these figures.

The Blue Jackets at home, the Penguins on the road

At home, the Blue Jackets scored 3.29 goals a game and allowed 3.07. The Penguins on the road scored 3.49 and allowed 3.05. Both were ahead on goals in the half of the schedule this game belongs to, and Pittsburgh by more: 0.44 a game against 0.22.

Overtime runs through both records. Columbus lost 8 home games after regulation, and 24 of its 82 games went past 60 minutes. Pittsburgh lost 16 games after regulation across the season, and 23 of its games went past regulation.

The Blue Jackets finished 40-30-12 with 92 points. Over 82 games their goals for and against came out level, a difference of zero. They played no playoff games.

The Penguins finished 41-25-16 with 98 points and outscored opponents by 25 goals over 82 games. They lost their one playoff series, 4-2 to the Philadelphia Flyers.

The teams met four times in 2025-26, and every game went past regulation. Columbus won 5-4 in a shootout in Pittsburgh on 25 October. Pittsburgh won 4-3 in overtime in Columbus on 28 November and 5-4 in overtime there on 4 January. Columbus won 4-3 in a shootout in Pittsburgh on 17 January. Each team won twice, both times on the road. Four games prove nothing about a fifth.

Pick: Penguins at +117 or longer, Blue Jackets at +129 or longer

No line yet, so no bet yet. The two teams sit close to even in our number, so both break points are underdog prices.

A moneyline converts to a chance. +117 means risking 100 to win 117, so the chance it implies is 100 divided by 217, or 46.1%. That is 5.1 points under our 51.2 for the Penguins.

For Columbus, +129 implies 100 divided by 229, or 43.7%, which is 5.1 points under our 48.8.

Removing the book’s margin only lowers a price’s chance, so at those prices either team is a bet whatever the other side is priced at. A slightly shorter price can still clear the threshold once the margin is out, and that is checked against the line on the day.

What changes it

The price. If Columbus opens as the home favorite, Pittsburgh’s plus price is the one to watch, and +117 is where it starts. A line near even money on both sides is a pass.

The summer is the other thing. The 82 games behind our number all come from 2025-26, and they say nothing about who is in either lineup on 9 October. Check the lineups before you bet.

Penguins at Blue Jackets, Friday 9 October, 7:00 PM ET, Nationwide Arena. No line posted as of 28 September 2026. Results: ESPN, read 28 September 2026. Nothing here states who is available.