NHL
SpreadTotalMoneySEA+1.5U 6.5+120DET-1.5O 6.5-142
NHL · Friday 9 October
Kraken at Red Wings Final Score: Kraken Win 6-3
Final: Seattle Kraken 6, Detroit Red Wings 3, Friday 9 October at Little Caesars Arena.
Our call was no bet. Before the game this page said: “No bet on the Red Wings at -142. Detroit turns into a bet at -109 or better, Seattle at +166 or longer.”
What decided it
Seattle won the second period by 3. Seattle had 24 shots to Detroit’s 40, and scored 1 power-play goal to 1.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Seattle Kraken | 1 | 4 | 1 | 6 |
| Detroit Red Wings | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 |
The last DraftKings moneyline ESPN holds for the game is Seattle Kraken +130, Detroit Red Wings -155, with a total of 5.5. Detroit, the favourite, lost. The 9 goals went over the total.
What comes next
Seattle plays next against the Toronto Maple Leafs on Wednesday 28 October: our prediction. Detroit plays next against the Chicago Blackhawks on Thursday 29 October.
The prediction, as published before the game
Everything below is the page as it stood before the game, kept unchanged as the record. It was titled “Kraken at Red Wings Best Pick, Prediction and Odds”.
No bet on the Red Wings at -142. Detroit turns into a bet at -109 or better, Seattle at +166 or longer.
The Detroit Red Wings are -142 and the Seattle Kraken +120 at DraftKings. With the margin removed, that is a 56.3% chance for Detroit. Our number gives the Red Wings 57.3%. The gap is 1.0 point, and a side is a bet only when the gap is 5 points or more. Pass.
When this page first went up on 29 September, no line had been posted, and it named the same two break points: the Red Wings at -109 or better, the Kraken at +166 or longer. The posted prices sit between them. The full number agrees with that page: no bet.
How the number is built
One clause: our home win chance is the average of the home team’s 2025-26 home win rate and the visitor’s 2025-26 road loss rate, where a win in overtime or a shootout counts as a win.
The Red Wings went 21-16-4 at home, meaning 21 wins, 16 regulation losses and 4 losses after regulation. That is a 51.2% home win rate over 41 games. The Kraken went 15-20-6 on the road and lost 26 of 41, a 63.4% road loss rate. The average is 57.3% for Detroit, which leaves 42.7% for Seattle. Most of the lean comes from the visitor’s half.
The margin is the few points a book builds into both prices so that they add to more than 100%. At -142 and +120 the two prices add to 104.1%. Removed, it leaves the Red Wings at 56.3% and the Kraken at 43.7%.
Our number and the market’s are a point apart. A 1-point gap is a fifth of the threshold.
It is a new season. Rosters change over a summer, and this page has no measure of what changed. Last season is the only evidence in hand: 41 home games for the Red Wings and 41 road games for the Kraken. No game from 2026-27 is in these figures.
The Red Wings at home, the Kraken on the road
The Red Wings at home scored 3.10 goals a game and allowed 3.34. They won 21 of 41 there while being outscored by 0.24 a game. The Kraken on the road scored 2.56 and allowed 3.37, a deficit of 0.81 a game.
Detroit’s results ran ahead of its goals all season. Across 82 games the Red Wings finished 41-31-10 with 92 points while being outscored by 17 goals, 0.21 a game. In one-goal games they went 18-5-10: 33 games, 18 wins and only 5 regulation losses. That record carried a team with a negative goal difference to 41 wins.
The Kraken finished 34-37-11 with 79 points and were outscored by 37 goals, 0.45 a game. Neither team played in the playoffs.
The teams met twice in 2025-26 and Detroit won both: 4-2 at home on 18 November and 4-3 in Seattle on 6 December. Two games prove nothing, and the method does not use them.
Pick: No bet on the Red Wings -142
Pass on the moneyline. The gap is 1.0 point against a 5-point threshold.
The line opened at Red Wings -142 and Kraken +120 and had not moved when it was read. Read on 8 October 2026 at 16:36 UTC, DraftKings via ESPN, Detroit was -142 and Seattle +120.
What changes it
A longer price on either side. The Red Wings are a bet at -109 or better, whatever Seattle is priced at, a long way from -142. The Kraken are a bet at +166 or longer, against +120 now.
A price is only one of the unknowns. This page states nothing about either lineup on 9 October. Check the lineups before you bet.
The total and the puck line
The total is 5.5, over -130 and under +110. The Red Wings’ games went over 5.5 in 49 of 82 and the Kraken’s in 45 of 82. Detroit’s home games averaged 6.44 goals, Seattle’s road games 5.93.
The two over rates, 59.8% and 54.9%, average 57.3%. The over at -130 is priced at 54.3% with the margin removed. The gap is 3.0 points, short of 5. Pass on the total.
The puck line has the Red Wings -1.5 at +170 and the Kraken +1.5 at -205. Detroit won by two goals or more in 23 of 82 games. Seattle lost by two or more in 32 of 82. Averaged, Detroit -1.5 lands 33.5% of the time against 35.5% priced. The 2.0-point gap leans to the Kraken +1.5, and it is well short of 5. Pass on the puck line.
Kraken at Red Wings, Friday 9 October, 7:00 PM ET, Little Caesars Arena. Prices: DraftKings via ESPN, read 8 October 2026, 16:36 UTC. Results: ESPN, read 8 October 2026. Nothing here states who is available.