NHL
NHL · Tuesday 13 October
Devils vs Red Wings Best Pick, Prediction and Odds
No bet on the Devils at -105. Our number has this game dead even, and the price sits 1.1 points away from it.
The Detroit Red Wings are -115 and the New Jersey Devils -105 at DraftKings. Take the margin out and that is 51.1% for Detroit and 48.9% for New Jersey. Our number is 50.0% each. The gap is 1.1 points toward the Devils, and a side is a bet only at 5 points or more. Pass.
How the number is built
The method in one clause: we average the home team’s 2025-26 home win rate with the visitor’s 2025-26 road loss rate, and a win in overtime or a shootout is a win. Neutral-site games are left out, and neither of these teams played one.
The Red Wings went 21-16-4 at home: 21 wins, 16 regulation losses, 4 losses after regulation. That is a 51.2% home win rate over 41 games. The Devils went 21-20-0 on the road, so they lost 20 of 41, a 48.8% road loss rate. Average the two and Detroit lands on 50.0%.
The two halves cancel exactly. Detroit won 21 and lost 20 at home, New Jersey won 21 and lost 20 away, and the method reads nothing else.
A book builds a margin into both prices, which is why both sides here carry a minus sign. The prices of -115 and -105 add up to 104.7%. With that removed, the Red Wings are 51.1% and the Devils 48.9%.
A 1.1-point gap is noise at this sample. One more home win for Detroit last season would have moved our number by 1.2 points, past the market’s and onto the other side of it. The number reads 41 home games and 41 road games from 2025-26. It holds nothing from this season.
The Red Wings at home, the Devils away
Detroit won at home without outscoring anyone there. The Red Wings scored 3.10 goals a game at home and allowed 3.34, a deficit of 0.24. The Devils on the road scored 2.66 and allowed 3.17, a deficit of 0.51.
Neither team changed much with the building. The Red Wings went 20-15-6 on the road, a 48.8% win rate over 41 games, against 51.2% at home. The Devils went 21-17-3 at home, the same 21 wins in 41 they managed away. All three of New Jersey’s losses after regulation came at home.
Over 82 games the Red Wings finished 41-31-10 with 92 points and were outscored by 17 goals. The Devils finished 42-37-3 with 87 points and were outscored by 24. Neither played in the playoffs.
New Jersey won one more game than Detroit and finished 5 points behind. The difference is losses after regulation, worth a point each: 10 for the Red Wings, 3 for the Devils. Detroit played 21 games that went past 60 minutes and won 11. New Jersey played 16 and won 13. In one-goal games the Red Wings went 18-5-10 and the Devils 20-8-3.
They met three times in 2025-26, every game settled in regulation, and the Devils won two. New Jersey won 4-3 at home on 24 November and 5-3 in Detroit on 11 April. The Red Wings won 3-0 in New Jersey on 8 March. Three games prove nothing, and the method gives them no weight of their own.
Pick: No bet on the Devils -105
No bet on the moneyline. Our number leans to New Jersey by 1.1 points and the threshold is 5.
The line opened at Red Wings -115 and Devils -105 and was the same when read. Read on 12 October 2026 at 16:01 UTC, DraftKings via ESPN: Detroit -115, New Jersey -105.
What changes it
Our number is 50.0% for each team, so the break point is the same price on both sides: +123 or longer, whatever the other team costs. The Devils are -105 and the Red Wings -115. Neither price is near +123.
Nothing on this page says who is in either lineup on 13 October. If a price ever reaches +123, read the lineups before acting on it.
The total and the puck line
The total is 5.5, over -122 and under +102. The Red Wings’ games went over 5.5 in 49 of 82 and the Devils’ in 40 of 82. Detroit’s home games averaged 6.44 goals, New Jersey’s road games 5.83.
Those over rates are 59.8% and 48.8%, and they average 54.3%. The over at -122 is priced at 52.6% with the margin out. A gap of 1.7 points is under the bar. The method bets the moneyline only, and on this total there is no lean either.
On the puck line the Red Wings are -1.5 at +205 and the Devils +1.5 at -250, or 31.5% and 68.5% without the margin. Detroit won by two goals or more in 23 of 82 games, and New Jersey lost by two or more in 29 of 82. Averaged, Red Wings -1.5 comes in 31.7% of the time against 31.5% priced. That is 0.2 points. Pass, and the game stays no bet at -105.
Devils at Red Wings, Tuesday 13 October, 6:00 PM ET, Little Caesars Arena. Prices: DraftKings via ESPN, read 12 October 2026, 16:01 UTC. Results: ESPN, 2025-26 regular season and playoffs. Nothing here states who is available.