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Oilers vs Mammoth Best Pick, Prediction and Odds

By Tyler WilliamsUpdated 16 Oct 2026

No bet on the Oilers at +114. The market makes Utah a 55.1% winner, we make it 53.7%, and a 1.4-point gap is nowhere near enough.

The Utah Mammoth are -135 and the Edmonton Oilers +114 at DraftKings. With the margin taken out, that is 55.1% for Utah and 44.9% for Edmonton. Our number gives Edmonton 46.3%. Same favourite, close to the same size: the price and the record agree.

How 53.7% is reached

Our home win chance is the average of the home team’s 2025-26 win rate in its own arena and the visitor’s 2025-26 loss rate on the road. Wins in overtime or a shootout count as wins. Games at a neutral site are in neither half, and neither team had one.

The Mammoth went 22-16-3 at the Delta Center, 22 wins against 16 regulation losses and 3 after regulation, a 53.7% home win rate over 41 games. The Oilers went 19-16-6 on the road and lost 22 of 41, a 53.7% road loss rate. The two halves are the same number, so the midpoint is too: 53.7% for Utah, 46.3% for Edmonton.

The margin is what a book builds into both sides so the pair comes to more than 100%. Here -135 and +114 come to 104.2%. Without it, the Mammoth are 55.1% and the Oilers 44.9%.

Our number gives Mammoth 53.7 percent, the market 55.1 percentOilers at Mammoth: chance to win, ours against the market'sOur numberlast season, home and roadOilers 46.3%Mammoth 53.7%The marketmoneyline, margin removedOilers 44.9%Mammoth 55.1%Moneylines: Oilers +114, Mammoth -135. A side is a bet when the two differ by 5 points or more.
Source: ESPN results, 2025-26 regular season, read 16 October 2026. Prices: DraftKings via ESPN, read 2026-10-16 15:38 UTC.

Every figure in our number is from 2025-26: 41 home games for Utah and 41 road games for Edmonton. Nothing in it reflects the summer or this season. This season, Utah is 6-2-0 and Edmonton 5-1-1, and they played each other on Thursday: the Mammoth won 4-2 in Edmonton. That game is not in the figures. Neither team plays on Friday.

Utah at home, Edmonton on the road

The Mammoth at home scored 3.34 a game and allowed 3.02, a surplus of 0.32. The Oilers on the road scored 3.39 and allowed 3.15, a surplus of 0.24. Two halves that sit just above even, by close to the same amount.

Mammoth at home and Oilers on the road in 2025-262025-26: Mammoth at home against Oilers on the roadGoals scored per gameMammoth at home 3.34Oilers on the road 3.39Goals allowed per gameMammoth at home 3.02Oilers on the road 3.15RecordMammoth at home 22-16-3Oilers on the road 19-16-6Mammoth: 41 home games. Oilers: 41 road games. Neutral-site games are left out.
Source: ESPN results, 2025-26 regular season, read 16 October 2026.

The other halves, which the method does not read: Utah on the road went 21-17-3, a 51.2% win rate, scoring 3.20 and allowing 2.83. Edmonton at home went 22-14-5, 53.7%, scoring 3.49 and allowing 3.41.

Over the full season there was little between them. The Mammoth finished 43-33-6 with 92 points and outscored opponents by 28, then lost 4-2 to Vegas in the playoffs. The Oilers finished 41-30-11 with 93 points, outscored opponents by 13, and lost 4-2 to Anaheim.

2025-26 goal margin in every game, Mammoth and Oilers2025-26 regular season: goal margin in every gameMammoth43-33-6+0.34 goals a gameOilers41-30-11+0.16 goals a gameColoured bars are wins, grey bars are losses, first game on the left. A shootout counts as one goal.
Source: ESPN results, 2025-26 regular season, read 16 October 2026. Record is wins, regulation losses, overtime and shootout losses.

Edmonton went past regulation more often and did less with it: 20 games beyond 60 minutes, 9 of them won, and 13-11-11 in one-goal games. Utah won 10 of its 16 that went to overtime or a shootout and went 16-11-6 in one-goal games.

Edmonton won two of the three meetings in 2025-26. Two were in Utah: a 5-2 Oilers win on 24 March and a 6-5 Mammoth win in overtime on 7 April. Those two are in our number, each one of Utah’s 41 home games and one of Edmonton’s 41 road games. The 6-3 Oilers win in Edmonton on 28 October is in neither half.

Pick: No bet on the Oilers +114

Pass on the moneyline. The gap is 1.4 points toward Edmonton, against a threshold of 5.

The line has not moved since it opened at Mammoth -135 and Oilers +114. It was read on 16 October 2026 at 15:38 UTC, DraftKings via ESPN.

What changes it

A big move. Against the Mammoth at -135, Edmonton would need to be +147 or longer to clear the bar.

For Utah to become the bet, the price would have to flip: the Mammoth at +106 or longer, the Oilers favourites. Utah is -135.

The other unknown is the lineups. This page states nothing about who plays for either team on 17 October. Check before you bet.

The total and the puck line

The total is 6.5, over -105 and under -115. The Mammoth’s games went over 6.5 in 38 of 82, the Oilers’ in 48 of 82. Utah’s home games averaged 6.36 goals and Edmonton’s road games 6.54.

2025-26 game totals for Mammoth and Oilers2025-26: total goals in every game, against this game's 6.5012345678910111213146.5Mammothover 6.5 in 38 of 82Oilersover 6.5 in 48 of 82Each dot is one 2025-26 regular-season game. Dots stack where games had the same total.
Source: ESPN results, 2025-26 regular season, read 16 October 2026. A shootout winner counts as one goal. Prices: DraftKings via ESPN, read 2026-10-16 15:38 UTC.

Those over rates, 46.3% and 58.5%, average 52.4%. The over at -105 is priced at 48.9% with the margin out, and the under at 51.1%. The gap is 3.5 points toward the over. Short of 5. Pass on the total.

The puck line is where the figures part from the price. Utah is -1.5 at +180 and Edmonton +1.5 at -218, which is 34.3% and 65.7% once the margin is removed. The Mammoth won by two goals or more in 27 of 82 games, and the Oilers lost by two or more in 19 of 82. Averaged, Mammoth -1.5 lands 28.0% of the time against 34.3% priced. That is 6.2 points toward Oilers +1.5. Our method bets the moneyline only, so on the puck line this is a lean: Oilers +1.5 at -218. The call on the game stays no bet.

Oilers at Mammoth, Saturday 17 October, 10:00 PM ET, Delta Center. Prices: DraftKings via ESPN, read 16 October 2026, 15:38 UTC. Results: ESPN, 2025-26 regular season and playoffs; 2026-27 games from ESPN’s team schedules, read 16 October 2026. Nothing here states who is available.