Ducks vs Rangers Best Pick, Prediction and Odds

Bet the Ducks at +114. Igor Shesterkin is out, and on the home games the Rangers played without him our number gives Anaheim 59.8% against the price’s 44.9%.

The New York Rangers are -135 and the Anaheim Ducks +114 at DraftKings. With the margin out, that is 55.1% for New York and 44.9% for Anaheim. The price has the Rangers as a home favourite. Our figures have them as an underdog, by a wide margin.

How 59.8% is reached

Our home win chance is the average of two 2025-26 rates: the home team’s win rate in its own arena and the visitor’s loss rate on the road. Overtime and shootout wins count as wins. Games at a neutral site are in neither half; the Rangers’ 5-1 win over Florida at loanDepot park on 2 January was one, and it was not a home game either way.

Shesterkin is on injured reserve with a knee injury (ESPN injury list, read 18 October 2026, 21:15 UTC), and when a team’s starting goalie is out, our method is run again on the games without him. He played in 51 of the Rangers’ 82 games last season. In the 15 home games he did not play, New York went 4-9-2, a 26.7% home win rate, scoring 2.33 a game and allowing 2.93. In the 26 home games he played, they went 10-11-5.

The Ducks went 19-20-2 on the road and lost 22 of 41, a 53.7% road loss rate. Average 26.7% with 53.7% and the Rangers are 40.2%, the Ducks 59.8%.

The full Madison Square Garden season says the same thing, less loudly. The Rangers went 14-20-7 at home, a 34.1% win rate; on that number Anaheim is 56.1% and the gap is 11.2 points. Either way the Ducks are the bet.

The margin is the extra a book builds into both prices so the pair comes to more than 100%. At -135 and +114 they come to 104.2%. Taken out, the Rangers are 55.1% and the Ducks 44.9%.

Every input is from 2025-26: the Rangers’ 15 home games without Shesterkin and Anaheim’s 41 road games. This season is not in the figures, and it points the other way at the Garden. The Rangers are 6-3-1 and 5-0 at home, two of those wins with Dylan Garand in goal since Shesterkin was listed on injured reserve on 11 October. They lost 1-0 in overtime in Columbus on Saturday. The Ducks are 4-3-0, lost 4-2 at home to Boston on Friday, and come in on two days off.

New York at home, Anaheim on the road

Over the full season the Rangers at home scored 2.59 a game and allowed 3.02, a deficit of 0.43. The Ducks on the road scored 3.12 and allowed 3.54, a deficit of 0.42.

The halves the method leaves out: the Rangers on the road went 19-19-2, a 47.5% win rate, scoring 3.17 and allowing 3.12. Anaheim at home went 24-13-4, 58.5%, scoring 3.54 and allowing 3.49. New York was the better team away from Manhattan last season, which is part of why its home number is so low.

Over the full season these two finished 15 points apart. The Ducks went 43-33-6 with 92 points and were outscored by 15, then beat Edmonton 4-2 in the playoffs before losing 4-2 to Vegas. The Rangers went 34-39-9 with 77 points, were outscored by 12, and missed the playoffs.

Anaheim won the close ones: 24-6-6 in one-goal games, and 17 of the 23 that went past regulation. New York went 11-12-9 in one-goal games and won 9 of its 18 past 60 minutes.

The Ducks won both meetings in 2025-26. Their 4-1 win at the Garden on 15 December is in the Ducks’ road half, but not in the Rangers’ re-run: Shesterkin played that night. Anaheim’s 5-3 win at home on 19 January is in neither half.

Pick: Ducks +114

Bet the Ducks on the moneyline at +114. The gap is 14.9 points toward Anaheim on the games without Shesterkin, against a threshold of 5.

The line read Rangers -135 and Ducks +114 on 18 October 2026 at 21:14 UTC, DraftKings via ESPN, unchanged from where it opened.

What kills the bet

A much shorter Anaheim price. At -121 or longer the Ducks are a bet whatever the Rangers are priced at.

For the Rangers to become the bet, they would have to be +185 or longer. They are -135.

The real risk is the one the number cannot see. The 2025-26 Rangers without Shesterkin were a poor home team, but this season’s Rangers have won all five at the Garden, and Garand has played every game since 11 October. Joonas Korpisalo is also on injured reserve. ESPN does not name a starter for Monday. If New York’s home form this autumn is the real team, our 40.2% is too low.

Anaheim lists Mikael Granlund as day-to-day, and Ian Moore, Ryan Poehling and Troy Terry on injured reserve; no Ducks goalie is on the list. Lukas Dostal has played six of their seven games, Ville Husso two. Check the lineups before you bet.

The total and the puck line

The total is 6.5, over +105 and under -125. The Rangers’ games went over 6.5 in 32 of 82, the Ducks’ in 49 of 82. New York’s home games averaged 5.61 goals, Anaheim’s road games 6.66.

That is 39.0% and 59.8%, an average of 49.4% for the over. With the margin removed the over is priced at 46.8% and the under at 53.2%, so our number leans to the over by less than 3 points. Pass on the total.

The puck line leans the same way as the pick, but not far. New York is -1.5 at +180 and Anaheim +1.5 at -218, which is 34.3% and 65.7% without the margin. Over the full season the Rangers won by two goals or more in 23 of 82 games, and the Ducks lost by two or more in 27 of 82. Averaged, Rangers -1.5 lands 30.5% of the time against 34.3% priced, a gap of less than 4 points. Pass on the puck line. One bet on this game: the Ducks at +114.

Ducks at Rangers, Monday 19 October, 7:00 PM ET, Madison Square Garden. Prices: DraftKings via ESPN, read 18 October 2026, 21:14 UTC. Results: ESPN, 2025-26 regular season and playoffs; goalie appearances from ESPN box scores; 2026-27 games and goalie appearances from ESPN’s team schedules and game pages, read 18 October 2026. Injury list: ESPN, read 18 October 2026, 21:15 UTC.