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← Week 2  |  All NFL Predictions  |  Week 4 → Two weeks of football is still the worst sample in sport, and week 3 is where people stop admitting that. Sixteen games, all thirty-two teams, nobody resting: the last full slate before the byes arrive and the schedule stops being fair. It is also a strangely low-stakes card on paper. Only three of the sixteen games are inside a division: seven are conference games and six cross the conferences entirely. That combination, big slate and thin consequences, is where opinions get formed that the rest of the season has to live with. Week 3 is where a two-game record starts being treated as a identity. It is not. What

← Week 13  |  All NFL Predictions  |  Week 15 → Eight of the fifteen games this week cross the conferences: the last time this season the card is this light on consequences. After this, the schedule turns almost entirely inward. Arizona and Dallas are on byes. Everyone else plays one more game that counts once before the division and conference fixtures take over the run-in. From week 15 onward, the NFL schedules its own teams against each other and the cross-conference filler disappears. This is the last week where a result can be a genuine surprise without changing anybody’s January. Our view: December cross-conference games are the most mispriced fixtures left on the calendar, one side is playing for

← Week 14  |  All NFL Predictions  |  Week 16 → Saturday football is back. Two games on Saturday 19 December, a 5:00 PM kickoff and an 8:20, on top of the Thursday opener, twelve on Sunday and the Monday nightcap. Sixteen games, nobody resting, and six of them inside a division with four rematches among them. From here the schedule stops being a season and starts being a run-in. December Saturdays exist because the college season has finished and the networks have empty windows. What that means in practice is two games with nothing to compete against, which is the same concentration effect the short cards produce, aimed at a much smaller number of fixtures. Our view: standalone games

← Week 15  |  All NFL Predictions  |  Week 17 → Christmas Day falls on a Friday in 2026, and the NFL has taken all of it: three games on 25 December at 1:00, 4:30 and 8:15 PM ET, after a Christmas Eve opener on the Thursday. Sixteen games, nobody on a bye, and four of them still without a confirmed kickoff: those are the ones the league has held back to move into the windows that matter once the standings say which games are worth it. Holiday football has an audience that does not otherwise watch, and a betting market that reflects it. The three Christmas games will carry more casual money than anything else on the card, and