NBA
NBA · Friday 23 October
Grizzlies vs Warriors Best Pick, Prediction and Odds
No bet on the Warriors. Our prediction puts Golden State 4.8 points above the market, short of the 5-point threshold we bet at.
The Memphis Grizzlies are +130 and the Golden State Warriors -155 at DraftKings. With the margin out, the market gives the Warriors 58.3% and the Grizzlies 41.7%. Our number gives the Warriors 63.1%. The gap is 4.8 points, and we need 5.
How 63.1% is reached
Our home win chance is the average of two 2025-26 regular-season rates: the home team’s win rate in its own arena and the visitor’s loss rate on the road. Games at a neutral site are in neither half. Memphis played two, Golden State none.
The Warriors went 22-19 at Chase Center, a 53.7% home win rate over 41 games. The Grizzlies went 11-29 on the road, a 72.5% road loss rate over 40 games. The average is 63.1% for Golden State and 36.9% for Memphis.
The margin is the extra a book builds in so the two prices add to more than 100%. At -155 and +130 they come to 104.3%. Taken out, the Warriors are 58.3% and the Grizzlies 41.7%.
The Warriors opened 2026-27 with a 127-105 loss at the Los Angeles Lakers on Wednesday 21 October. The Grizzlies opened the same night by beating the Utah Jazz 123-103. Our number reads 2025-26 only, so neither game is in it. Neither is a summer of roster changes.
Golden State at home, Memphis on the road
At home the Warriors scored 117.1 points a game and allowed 115.8, a margin of 1.3. The Grizzlies on the road scored 113.3 and allowed 121.9, a margin of -8.6. That road half is the reason our number sits above the market: 29 losses in 40 games.
The halves the method leaves out: Golden State on the road went 15-26, scoring 112.1 and allowing 114.5. Memphis at home went 13-27, scoring 115.8 and allowing 119.8. Both teams were worse away from home than at it.
The season around it
The Warriors finished 37-45, the 10th seed in the Western Conference, and missed the playoffs. They scored 114.6 a game and allowed 115.2, a difference of -0.6. In games decided by 5 points or fewer they went 10-13, and 5 of their games went to overtime. They won 20 games by 10 or more and lost 23 by that much.
The Grizzlies finished 25-57, 13th in the West, and also missed the playoffs. They scored 114.7 a game and allowed 120.7, a difference of -6.0. They went 7-9 in close games and played 2 overtime games. They won 9 games by 10 or more and lost 32 by 10 or more.
The Warriors won all three meetings. At Chase Center they won 131-118 on Monday 27 October 2025 and 114-113 on Monday 9 February 2026. Those two games are in our number, two of the Warriors’ 41 home games and two of the Grizzlies’ 40 road games. In Memphis the Warriors won 133-112 on Wednesday 25 February 2026, a game in neither half. Three games is too few to read as a rate.
Pick: No bet
No bet. Our number favours the Warriors by 4.8 points over the market, against a threshold of 5. The rule says pass, so we pass.
The line read Warriors -155 and Grizzlies +130 on 22 October 2026 at 20:59 UTC, DraftKings via ESPN. It opened at the same prices, so it has not moved.
A 4.8-point gap built on last season’s splits is inside the error we accept for this method. Golden State’s current injury list gives a second reason to stay off. The method does not see who is out, and three of the Warriors’ players are listed out for this game. In our view that pushes the true chance toward the market’s 58.3%, not away from it.
What kills the bet
A longer Warriors price. Against the current Grizzlies price of +130, the Warriors become a bet at -152 or longer. Whatever Memphis is priced at, they become a bet at -138 or longer. At -155 they are 3 cents short.
For the Grizzlies to become the bet, the price would have to reach +251 against the current Warriors price, or +213 or longer whatever Golden State is priced at. They are +130.
ESPN’s injury list for the game, read 22 October 2026 at 20:59 UTC, has Kristaps Porzingis (illness), Moses Moody (knee) and Jimmy Butler III (knee) out for Golden State, and Brandin Podziemski (back) and Charles Bassey (knee) day-to-day. For Memphis it lists Isaiah Stewart (ankle) day-to-day. None of these changes the number. Check the lineups before you bet.
The total and the spread
The total is 235.5, over -110 and under -110. The Warriors’ home games went over 235.5 in 20 of 41, a 48.8% rate. The Grizzlies’ road games went over in 19 of 40, a 47.5% rate. Golden State’s home games averaged 232.9 points and Memphis’s road games 235.2.
Averaged, the over lands 48.1% of the time against 50.0% priced. That is 1.9 points toward the under, well inside the threshold. Pass on the total. Across all 82 games, the Warriors went over this line in 33 and the Grizzlies in 39.
The spread is Warriors -3.5 at -110 and Grizzlies +3.5 at -110, unchanged since it opened. The Warriors beat the line in 19 of 41 home games. The Grizzlies beat it in 12 of 40 road games. Averaged, Warriors -3.5 lands 58.2% of the time against 50.0% priced, a gap of 8.2 points toward Golden State.
That spread figure is a count of last season against this line, not our method, which stakes the moneyline. It leans the same way as our moneyline number, and the same injury list sits against it. A lean is not a bet. On this game, the call is no bet.
Grizzlies at Warriors, Friday 23 October, 10:00 PM ET, Chase Center, San Francisco. Prices: DraftKings via ESPN, read 22 October 2026, 20:59 UTC. Results: ESPN, 2025-26 regular season and playoffs. 2026-27 results and injury list: ESPN’s game page, read 22 October 2026, 20:59 UTC.