NBA
SpreadTotalMoneyGS+9.5U 222.5+300PHX-9.5O 222.5-380
NBA · Saturday 24 October
Warriors vs Suns Best Pick, Prediction and Odds
Bet the Warriors at +300. Our number gives Golden State on the road 37.8%; the price gives them 24.0%.
The Golden State Warriors are +300 and the Phoenix Suns -380 at DraftKings. With the margin out, that is 24.0% for Golden State and 76.0% for Phoenix. Last season’s home and road records put the Warriors 13.8 points higher than the market does. We bet at 5.
How 37.8% is reached
Our home win chance is the average of two 2025-26 regular-season rates: the home team’s win rate in its own arena and the visitor’s loss rate on the road. Neutral-site games sit in neither half. Neither team played one last season.
The Suns went 25-16 at home, a 61.0% home win rate over 41 games. The Warriors went 15-26 on the road, a 63.4% road loss rate over 41 games. The midpoint is 62.2% for Phoenix and 37.8% for Golden State.
The margin is the extra a book builds into both prices so the pair adds to more than 100%. At +300 and -380 the pair comes to 104.2%. Taken out, the Warriors are 24.0% and the Suns 76.0%. Our 37.8% against the market’s 24.0% is the whole argument.
This season is not in the number. Phoenix is 0-1 after losing 124-83 at the Portland Trail Blazers on Wednesday 21 October. Golden State is 0-2, 0-1 on the road, and lost 111-108 to the Memphis Grizzlies on Friday 23 October, the night before this game. Two games in October tell us nothing about a season. Roster changes over the summer are also invisible to a number built on 2025-26. That is the main risk in this bet.
Phoenix at home, Golden State on the road
At home the Suns scored 112.0 points a game and allowed 108.4, a margin of 3.6. On the road the Warriors scored 112.1 and allowed 114.5, a margin of -2.4. Those are the two halves the method reads.
The halves it leaves out point the same way. Golden State at home went 22-19, scoring 117.1 and allowing 115.8. Phoenix on the road went 20-21, scoring 113.2 and allowing 113.8. The Suns played as roughly a .500 team away from home, and the Warriors were 1.3 points a game better than their opponents in their own building.
The season around it
The Suns finished 2025-26 at 45-37, the 8th seed in the West. They scored 112.6 a game, allowed 111.1, and finished 1.5 points a game ahead. Oklahoma City swept them 4-0 in the playoffs.
The Warriors finished 37-45, the 10th seed. They scored 114.6, allowed 115.2, and finished 0.6 points a game behind. They missed the playoffs.
In games decided by 5 points or fewer, Phoenix went 12-14 and Golden State 10-13. The Suns played 2 overtime games, the Warriors 5. Phoenix won by 10 or more 25 times and lost by 10 or more 17 times. Golden State won by 10 or more 20 times and lost by 10 or more 23 times.
The Warriors won three of the four meetings. In Phoenix, the Suns won 99-98 on 18 December 2025 and the Warriors won 101-97 on 5 February 2026. Those two games are in our number: two of Phoenix’s 41 home games and two of Golden State’s 41 road games. At Golden State, the Warriors won 118-107 on 4 November 2025 and 119-116 on 20 December 2025. Those two are in neither half.
Pick: Warriors +300
Bet the Warriors on the moneyline at +300. The gap is 13.8 points toward Golden State, against a threshold of 5.
The line read Warriors +300 and Suns -380 on 24 October 2026 at 13:02 UTC, DraftKings via ESPN. It opened at Warriors +170 and Suns -205, when the market gave Phoenix 64.5%. It has moved toward the Suns since: the market now gives them 11.5 points more than at the open.
What kills the bet
The bet dies at a shorter Golden State price. At +205 or longer the Warriors are a bet whatever Phoenix is priced at. With the Suns at -380, they stay a bet down to +159. Below that, pass.
For Phoenix to become the bet, the Suns would have to drift to -133 or longer, whatever the Warriors are priced at. At -380 they are far from it.
ESPN’s game page, read 24 October 2026 at 13:02 UTC, lists Charles Bassey (knee), Kristaps Porzingis (illness), Moses Moody (knee) and Jimmy Butler III (knee) out for Golden State. For Phoenix it lists Mark Williams (shoulder) out, and Luke Kennard (knee) and Oso Ighodaro (oblique) day-to-day. The method does not read the injury list, so the list does not change the number. Four Warriors out, Butler among them, is part of why the price moved from +170 to +300. Check the lineups before you bet.
Our number still gives Golden State a 62.2% chance of losing. The case is that +300 pays more than that risk warrants, on last season’s evidence.
The total and the spread
The total is 219.5, over -112 and under -108. The Suns’ home games went over 219.5 in 19 of 41, a 46.3% rate. The Warriors’ road games went over in 25 of 41, a 61.0% rate. Phoenix’s home games averaged 220.4 points, Golden State’s road games 226.6.
The average of those two rates is 53.7% for the over. With the margin removed the market prices the over at 50.4% and the under at 49.6%. That is a 3.2-point lean to the over, under our threshold of 5. Pass on the total.
The spread is Suns -9.5 at -115 and Warriors +9.5 at -105; it opened Suns -6.5. Phoenix won at home by 10 or more in 13 of 41 games. Golden State on the road won, or lost by 9 or fewer, in 30 of 41. Averaged, Suns -9.5 lands 29.3% of the time against 51.1% priced, a gap of 21.8 points toward Warriors +9.5. Our method stakes the moneyline, so that is a lean on the same side, not a second bet. One bet on this game: the Warriors at +300.
Warriors at Suns, Saturday 24 October, 10:00 PM ET, Mortgage Matchup Center, Phoenix. Prices: DraftKings via ESPN, read 24 October 2026, 13:02 UTC. Results: ESPN, 2025-26 regular season and playoffs. 2026-27 records and injury list: ESPN game page, read 24 October 2026, 13:02 UTC.