Pelicans vs Jazz Best Pick, Prediction and Odds

No bet on Pelicans at Jazz. Our number gives Utah 56.1% at home; the price gives them 55.1%.

The Utah Jazz are -135 and the New Orleans Pelicans +114 at DraftKings. With the margin out, that is 55.1% for Utah and 44.9% for New Orleans. Last season’s home and road records put the Jazz 1.0 point higher than the market. We bet at 5, so this prediction is a pass.

How 56.1% is reached

Our home win chance is the average of two 2025-26 regular-season rates: the home team’s win rate in its own arena and the visitor’s loss rate on the road. Neither team played a game at a neutral site, so no games are left out of either half.

The Jazz went 14-27 at the Delta Center, a 34.1% home win rate over 41 games. The Pelicans went 9-32 on the road, a 78.0% road loss rate. The average is 56.1% for Utah and 43.9% for New Orleans.

The margin is the extra a book builds into both prices so the pair adds up to more than 100%. At -135 and +114 the two prices come to 104.2%. Taken out, the Jazz are 55.1% and the Pelicans 44.9%. The gap between our 56.1% and the market’s 55.1% is 1.0 point.

Both teams have played once in 2026-27, and neither game is in our number. Utah lost 123-103 at the Memphis Grizzlies on Wednesday 21 October. New Orleans lost 123-120 to the Indiana Pacers the same night. Our number also cannot see summer roster changes. One game each proves nothing either way.

Utah at home, New Orleans on the road

At home the Jazz scored 121.2 points a game and allowed 126.4, a margin of -5.2. On the road the Pelicans scored 112.9 and allowed 120.5, a margin of -7.6. Both halves of the method describe losing teams. Utah’s half is the less bad one, and the number says so by 1.0 point over the market.

The method leaves two halves out. The Pelicans went 17-24 at home, scoring 118.2 and allowing 119.5. The Jazz went 8-33 on the road, scoring 114.0 and allowing 125.6.

Over the full season, Utah finished 22-60, 15th in the West, scoring 117.6 a game and allowing 126.0, a difference of -8.4. New Orleans finished 26-56, 11th, scoring 115.5 and allowing 120.0, a difference of -4.5. Neither team made the playoffs.

Utah lost by 10 or more 41 times and won by 10 or more 9 times. New Orleans lost by 10 or more 25 times and won by that much 15 times. In games decided by 5 points or fewer, the Jazz went 9-11 and the Pelicans 6-13. Each team played 5 overtime games.

The Pelicans won all three meetings. In Salt Lake City they won 129-118 on 26 February and 115-105 on 28 February. Those two games are in our number: two of Utah’s 41 home games and two of New Orleans’ 41 road games. In New Orleans the Pelicans won 156-137 on 7 April, which is in neither half. Three games is too small a sample to count as a rate, and our number gives them no extra weight.

Pick: No bet

No bet on either side. The gap is 1.0 point toward the Jazz, against a threshold of 5. Our number and the market agree to within a point. At this price the book is charging the margin and nothing else.

The line read Jazz -135 and Pelicans +114 on 22 October 2026 at 20:59 UTC, DraftKings via ESPN. It opened at Jazz -205 and Pelicans +170. With the margin out, that opening price gave Utah 64.5% and New Orleans 35.5%. The market now gives New Orleans 9.3 points more than at the open. That move has closed the gap between the price and our number.

What kills the bet

For the Jazz to become a bet, their price has to drift longer. At -104 or longer, Utah is a bet whatever New Orleans is priced at. With the Pelicans at +114, the Jazz need +105 or longer.

For the Pelicans to become a bet, the move since the open would have to reverse. At +157 or longer, New Orleans is a bet whatever Utah is priced at. With the Jazz at -135, the Pelicans need +173 or longer. They opened at +170.

ESPN’s injury list for the game was read 22 October 2026 at 20:59 UTC. It has Jusuf Nurkic (foot) out for Utah, and Tony Bradley (quadriceps) and Trey Alexander (knee) day-to-day. It lists no one for New Orleans. Our number reads last season’s records, so the list does not change it. Check the lineups before you bet.

The total and the spread

The total is 241.5, over -110 and under -110. The Jazz’s home games went over 241.5 in 27 of 41, a 65.9% rate, and averaged 247.6 points. The Pelicans’ road games went over in 16 of 41, a 39.0% rate, and averaged 233.4. Across all 82 games, Utah went over this line 44 times and New Orleans 28 times.

The average of the two venue rates is 52.4% for the over. The market prices the over at 50.0%, a gap of 2.4 points toward the over. That is under the threshold of 5. Pass.

The spread is Jazz -2.5 at -112 and Pelicans +2.5 at -108. It opened at Jazz -5.5. Utah won by 3 or more in 12 of 41 home games. New Orleans won, or lost by 2 or fewer, in 12 of 41 road games. Averaged, the Jazz cover 50.0% of the time against 50.4% priced, a gap of 0.4 points toward Pelicans +2.5. That is a lean only, and our method stakes the moneyline. The bet on this game is no bet.

Pelicans at Jazz, Friday 23 October, 9:30 PM ET, Delta Center, Salt Lake City. Prices: DraftKings via ESPN, read 22 October 2026, 20:59 UTC. Results: ESPN, 2025-26 regular season and playoffs. 2026-27 records and injury list: ESPN’s game page, read 22 October 2026, 20:59 UTC.