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Sam Houston vs Missouri State Best Pick, Prediction and Odds

By Grant WellerUpdated 26 Oct 2026

Our number has Missouri State by 10.6. At -5.5, take Missouri State.

Missouri State is a 5.5-point favorite over Sam Houston at DraftKings, read 27 October 2026 at 01:02 UTC. Our number is Missouri State by 10.6. The gap is 5.1 points on Missouri State’s side, and the threshold for a bet is 3.

Sam Houston at Missouri State: the prices

Sam Houston at Missouri State kicks off Tuesday 27 October at 8:00 PM ET at Robert W. Plaster Stadium in Springfield. It is a Conference USA game. Both sides of the spread are priced at -110: Missouri State -5.5 and Sam Houston +5.5. The line opened at Missouri State -6.

Missouri State opened -6 and is -5.5 nowMissouri State's line, from the open to nowpickopen -6now -5.5Negative numbers mean Missouri State is giving points. The line has moved 0.5 points toward Sam Houston.
Prices: DraftKings via ESPN, read 2026-10-27 01:02 UTC.

The moneyline is Missouri State -218 and Sam Houston +180. A book builds a margin into its prices, so the two implied chances add to more than 100%. With that margin taken out, the market gives Missouri State a 65.7% chance to win and Sam Houston 34.3%. ESPN’s FPI is less sure of the home side, at 59.9% to 40.2%. Our method stakes the spread, so the moneyline is context only.

How Missouri State by 10.6 is reached

Our number is half the difference between the home team’s average margin at home and the visitor’s average margin on the road. It uses games against FBS teams only, across 2025 and 2026 together. Bowl and playoff games are neutral and left out.

Missouri State is 3-4 at home against FBS teams over that span, losing by 2.4 points a game. Sam Houston is 1-9 on the road against FBS teams, losing by 23.7 a game. Half the difference between those two averages is 10.6 points in Missouri State’s favor. Against a spread of 5.5, that is a gap of 5.1.

Moneyline implies Sam Houston 34.3 percent, Missouri State 65.7 percentChance to win the game, as pricedSam Houston 34.3%Missouri State 65.7%From DraftKings's moneylines, Sam Houston +180 and Missouri State -218, margin removed.
Source: DraftKings via ESPN, read 2026-10-27 01:02 UTC.

The base is 17 games: 7 for Missouri State and 10 for Sam Houston. Both clear the 4-game minimum the rule sets. A side is a bet when our number and the spread are at least 3 points apart.

Missouri State at home, Sam Houston on the road

Missouri State’s half of the number is weak. A team that loses its home FBS games by 2.4 points on average is not, on its own, a favorite. This season it lost 30-24 to Marshall on 19 September and beat Kennesaw State 24-21 on 14 October, its two home games against FBS teams. Its third home win, 48-14 over Lindenwood, came against a team outside the FBS and is not in the number.

The case rests on Sam Houston’s road record. One win in 10 road games against FBS teams, at an average deficit of 23.7, is the largest input here. This season Sam Houston lost 24-21 at Troy on 5 September, 49-14 at Texas Tech on 26 September and 35-3 at Liberty on 8 October.

The halves the method leaves out are Missouri State on the road and Sam Houston at home. Sam Houston is 1-3 at home this season, and its one win was 59-0 over Nicholls, a team outside the FBS.

2026 so far

None of this is inside our number. Missouri State is 2-5 overall, 1-2 in Conference USA, and has lost its last game. It scores 24.4 points a game and allows 34.9, a margin of -10.4. Against FBS teams it is 1-5 with a margin of -17.8. Its most recent result was a 61-38 loss at Delaware on 20 October.

2026 point margin in every game, Missouri State and Sam Houston2026: point margin in every game so farMissouri State2-5, -10.4 a game-50+34-6-10-21+3-23Sam Houston1-6, -5.1 a game-3-6+59-35-32-13-6Coloured bars are wins, dark grey losses, light grey games against teams outside the FBS.
Source: ESPN results, read 26 October 2026; cross-checked with Nucleus for games up to its 11 October pull.

Sam Houston is 1-6, 0-3 in the conference, and has lost four in a row. It scores 20.1 and allows 25.3, a margin of -5.1. Against FBS teams it is 0-6 with a margin of -15.8. It lost 30-24 at home to New Mexico State on 21 October.

On this season’s FBS games alone, Missouri State’s margin of -17.8 is worse than Sam Houston’s -15.8. That is the strongest argument against the pick. Our number trusts two seasons and the venue split over six games each.

Last season and the meeting

Missouri State went 7-6 in 2025, 6-6 against FBS teams, 3-3 at home and 4-2 on the road. It scored 25.6 a game and allowed 28.8, a margin of -3.2. It lost 34-28 to Arkansas State at a neutral site on 18 December 2025.

2025 point margin in every game, Missouri State and Sam Houston2025: point margin in every game, bowls and playoffs includedMissouri State7-6, -3.2 a game-60+1-18+32-5+2+7+7+4+14-7-12-6Sam Houston2-10, -20.1 a game-17-17-17-55-27-2-18-41+4+3-14-40Oldest game on the left. Light grey bars are games against teams outside the FBS.
Source: ESPN results, read 26 October 2026.

Sam Houston went 2-10 in 2025, all against FBS teams, 1-4 at home and 1-6 on the road. It scored 17.8 a game and allowed 37.8, a margin of -20.1, and did not play in the postseason. The results for 2025 and 2026 hold no game between these two teams, so no meeting is inside our number.

Pick: Missouri State -5.5

Missouri State -5.5 at -110, DraftKings, read 27 October 2026 at 01:02 UTC. The line opened at -6. The gap is 5.1 points against a 3-point threshold.

It rests on 17 games, split 7 and 10. Sam Houston’s road half carries the number; Missouri State’s home half is a 3-4 record.

What kills the bet

The line. Missouri State is a bet down to -7.6. Past that, the gap falls under 3 and the call becomes a pass. Sam Houston would need +13.6 or better to be the bet.

The ESPN game page, read 27 October 2026 at 01:02 UTC, lists no injuries for either team. That is not a statement that everyone is available. Check the lineups before you bet.

The total

The total is 50.5, down from 51.5 at the open. The over is -112 and the under -108.

Game totals for Missouri State and Sam Houston against 50.5Total points in every game against FBS teams, 2025 and 2026, against this game's 50.510203040506070809010050.5Missouri State8 of 18 over 50.5Sam Houston10 of 18 over 50.5Each dot is one game against an FBS team. Dots stack where games had the same total.
Source: ESPN results, read 26 October 2026; cross-checked with Nucleus for games up to its 11 October pull. The line: DraftKings via ESPN, read 2026-10-27 01:02 UTC.

Against FBS teams across 2025 and 2026, Missouri State’s games went over in 8 of 18 and Sam Houston’s in 10 of 18. This season Missouri State’s six FBS games produced 50, 54, 58, 47, 45 and 99 points. Sam Houston’s produced 45, 40, 63, 38, 19 and 54.

No bet on the total at 50.5. Our method stakes the spread only, and those counts sit on both sides of the line.

Sam Houston at Missouri State, Tuesday 27 October, 8:00 PM ET, Robert W. Plaster Stadium, Springfield. Prices: DraftKings via ESPN, read 27 October 2026, 01:02 UTC. Results: ESPN, 2025 and 2026 seasons, checked against Nucleus. Rankings: 2026 NCAA Football Rankings, AP Poll Week 9. Injuries: ESPN game page, read 27 October 2026, 01:02 UTC.