NHL
NHL · Saturday 24 October
Wild vs Kraken Best Pick, Prediction and Odds
Bet the Kraken at +130. With Filip Gustavsson out, our number is run on Minnesota’s road games without him. It makes Seattle a 46.7% winner at home against the price’s 41.7%.
The Seattle Kraken are +130 and the Minnesota Wild -155 at DraftKings. With the margin out, that is 41.7% for Seattle and 58.3% for Minnesota. Our number is 46.7% for the Kraken. The gap is 5.0 points, exactly the size of edge we need to bet.
How 46.7% is reached
Our home win chance is the average of two 2025-26 rates: the home team’s win rate in its own arena and the visitor’s loss rate on the road. Overtime and shootout wins count as wins, and neutral-site games are left out. A side is a bet when our number and the market’s differ by 5 points or more.
Gustavsson is on injured reserve with a hip injury. The ESPN injury list, read 24 October 2026 at 00:40 UTC, has an entry dated 18 October and gives 19 November as his return date. When a team’s starting goalie is out, our method is run again on the games without him. Gustavsson appeared in 50 of Minnesota’s 82 games last season, more than Jesper Wallstedt’s 35, and in 24 of its 41 road games. In the 17 road games he missed, the Wild went 9-4-4, a road loss rate of 47.06%. The minimum we accept is 10 games, so 17 is enough to use.
The Kraken went 19-17-5 at Climate Pledge Arena, a 46.3% home win rate. Average 46.3% with 47.06% and the Kraken are 46.7%, the Wild 53.3%. That is 5.0 points better for Seattle than the price.
The full road season does not get there. The Wild went 23-14-4 away from home, a 43.9% road loss rate. On that number Seattle is 45.1% and the gap is 3.4 points, below the threshold. Without the re-run this game is a pass. With it, the bet clears by nothing.
The margin is the extra a book builds into both prices so the pair comes to more than 100%. At +130 and -155 they come to 104.3%. Taken out, the Kraken are 41.7% and the Wild 58.3%.
Every input is from 2025-26. This season is not in the figures, and so far it favours Seattle. The Kraken are 7-3-1, 3-1-0 at home, and beat the Utah Mammoth 5-3 on Thursday 22 October. Philipp Grubauer has appeared in seven of their games and Joey Daccord in five. The Wild are 6-3-2, 2-3-2 on the road, and lost 2-1 in Calgary on Thursday. Wallstedt has appeared in 10 of their games and Calvin Pickard in one.
Seattle at home, Minnesota on the road
Over the full season the Kraken at home scored 2.95 a game and allowed 3.05, a deficit of 0.1. The Wild on the road scored 3.46 and allowed 3.05, a surplus of 0.41. These are the two halves in the full-season number. The re-run replaces Minnesota’s half with the 17 games without Gustavsson.
The halves the method leaves out: Seattle on the road went 15-20-6, a 36.6% win rate, scoring 2.56 and allowing 3.37. Minnesota at home went 23-10-8, 56.1%, scoring 3.17 and allowing 2.80. The Kraken were worse away from home, and that half is not in our number.
Over the full season the gap between these teams was large. Minnesota went 46-24-12 with 104 points and outscored opponents by 32, then beat Dallas 4-2 in the playoffs before losing 4-1 to Colorado. Seattle went 34-37-11 with 79 points, was outscored by 37, and missed the playoffs.
The Wild went 20-5-12 in one-goal games and won 15 of the 27 that went past regulation. The Kraken went 13-5-11 in one-goal games and won 8 of the 19 past 60 minutes. Seattle lost by two goals or more in 32 of 82 games.
Minnesota won all three meetings in 2025-26. Two were in Seattle: 4-1 on 8 December and 3-2 in overtime on 8 January. Those two are inside Seattle’s home rate. The third, 5-2 in Minnesota on 7 April, is in neither half of our number. Three games is too few to mean anything on their own.
Pick: Kraken +130
Bet the Kraken on the moneyline at +130. The gap is 5.0 points toward Seattle on Minnesota’s road games without Gustavsson, against a threshold of 5. On the full road season it is 3.4, a pass. This is the thinnest bet the rule allows, and it rests on the goalie re-run.
The line read Kraken +130 and Wild -155 on 24 October 2026 at 00:40 UTC, DraftKings via ESPN. It opened at the same prices and has not moved.
What kills the bet
Any shorter Kraken price. Against Minnesota at -155, Seattle is a bet at +130 or longer, so the current price is the floor and any move below it ends the bet. At +140 or longer the Kraken are a bet whatever Minnesota is priced at.
For the Wild to become the bet, they would have to be +107 or longer whatever Seattle’s price. Against the Kraken at +130, Minnesota would need +146. The Wild are -155.
A Gustavsson return would also end it, since the re-run is the only reason the gap reaches 5 points. ESPN’s injury list has him on injured reserve with a 19 November return date. Minnesota also lists Maxim Shabanov as day-to-day with an upper-body injury, and Marcus Foligno, Nick Foligno and Brock Faber on injured reserve. Seattle lists Jacob Melanson, Ryan Lindgren and Jake O’Brien on injured reserve. Check the lineups before you bet.
The total and the puck line
The total is 6.5, over +110 and under -130. The Kraken’s games went over 6.5 in 29 of 82, a 35.4% rate. The Wild’s went over in 42 of 82, 51.2%. Seattle’s home games averaged 6.0 goals, Minnesota’s road games 6.51.
Our number puts the over at 43.3%. With the margin removed the over is priced at 45.7% and the under at 54.3%, so our number leans to the under by 2.4 points. Pass on the total.
On the puck line, Minnesota is -1.5 at +160 and Seattle +1.5 at -192, which is 36.9% and 63.1% without the margin. Over the full season the Wild won by two goals or more in 26 of 82 games, and the Kraken lost by two or more in 32 of 82. Our number has Wild -1.5 landing 35.4% of the time, a gap of 1.5 points toward Kraken +1.5. Our method stakes the moneyline only, so this is a lean, on the same side. One bet on this game: the Kraken at +130.
Wild at Kraken, Saturday 24 October, 10:00 PM ET, Climate Pledge Arena. Prices: DraftKings via ESPN, read 24 October 2026, 00:40 UTC. Results: ESPN, 2025-26 regular season and playoffs; Minnesota’s goalie appearances from ESPN box scores. Injury list, 2026-27 records and goalie appearances this season: ESPN’s game page, read 24 October 2026, 00:40 UTC.