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Game Preview New England Patriots @ Buffalo Bills
The New England Patriots head to Orchard Park on December 14, 2025, to face the Buffalo Bills in a late-season AFC East matchup. Buffalo is firmly in the playoff race and fighting for seeding, while the Patriots are in evaluation mode, focusing on youth development and future roster decisions.
These divisional rivals know each other well, and past meetings have often been decided by defense, weather, and situational football. With Buffalo’s offense back in rhythm and the Patriots in a rebuild, this game carries weight for bettors seeking both spread clarity and total opportunities.
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Odds and Key Information
Buffalo opened as 9.5-point home favorites, with the total set at 41.5. The spread reflects the gap in offensive efficiency, while the total suggests low expectations for the Patriots’ scoring output. Line movement has been minimal, though sharp action has leaned slightly toward the under.
To better understand betting late-season double-digit favorites, explore our proven strategies in the NFL expert betting guide.
New England Patriots Outlook
The New England Patriots are near the bottom of most offensive categories, ranking last in points per game and 29th in third-down conversions. While the quarterback situation remains unstable, the team is using the final weeks to evaluate young talent and offensive line depth.
Defensively, the Patriots are more competitive, particularly against the run. They’ve held opponents under 100 rushing yards in four of their last six and continue to limit red zone scoring. However, the lack of offensive support leaves the defense exposed late in games.
For long-term betting value, review our Patriots futures outlook heading into potential draft and offseason shifts.
Buffalo Bills Outlook
The Buffalo Bills are hitting their stride at the right time. Josh Allen has accounted for over 30 total touchdowns, and Buffalo ranks top five in scoring, yards per play, and red zone conversions. The offensive line is finally healthy, and Stefon Diggs remains a high-volume target against man coverage.
Buffalo’s defense, though banged up earlier in the season, has stabilized. The pass rush is heating up, and the secondary has limited big plays since Week 10. At home, Buffalo is averaging over 28 points per game and has covered in four of its last five at Highmark Stadium.
Track Allen’s MVP movement and season-long stats with our updated NFL MVP odds.
Key Matchup
Buffalo’s passing game versus New England’s secondary will dictate this contest. If Allen has time to operate, the Patriots lack the personnel to contain Diggs and the vertical threats. Look for Buffalo to test deep zones early and force New England into a track meet.
On the flip side, New England must run the ball efficiently to keep Buffalo’s offense on the sidelines. Expect early down rushing and conservative passing to try and shorten the game clock and keep the final score within the number.
For individual player angles, read our breakdown on top NFL prop bets this week.
Betting Trends
The Patriots are 2-6 against the spread in their last eight games and 1-4 ATS on the road. The under has hit in five of their last six. Buffalo is 5-2 ATS at home this season and 6-1 straight up in its last seven home games. The Bills are 4-1 ATS in their last five games vs AFC East opponents.
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Prediction
Buffalo has all the motivation, better personnel, and the advantage of home field. New England’s offense simply doesn’t have the consistency to keep pace unless the Bills turn the ball over. Expect a professional effort from Buffalo and a controlled cover as they gear up for the postseason.
Final prediction: Bills 27, Patriots 13
Spread Pick: Bills -9.5
Total Lean: Under 41.5
For similar high-spread matchups, explore our Sunday Night Football betting preview for models that handle large lines.
Why You Need Expert Picks
Games with big spreads can be tricky. Are they justified? Is backdoor cover a risk? Expert picks help you decode those angles with data-backed analysis.
Check the Handicappers Leaderboard to see who’s dominating NFL this season, then visit our NFL picks section for expert plays, parlay ideas, and updated market projections.
If you’re betting long term, check our analysis of Super Bowl contenders, NFL playoff futures, and Coach of the Year odds.
