NFL Picks: Your Weekly Winning Edge

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The NFL regular season is nearing its conclusion, and Week 18 brings a mix of critical playoff implications and teams playing for pride. With divisional matchups dominating the schedule, we’re sure to see a little bit of everything—from heated battles to high-scoring affairs and everything in between.

Here’s a full breakdown of every game, complete with odds, trends, and predictions to help you navigate the betting board this week.

NFL Week 18 Schedule 

The Baltimore Ravens are the largest betting favorites of Week 18 with -1800 odds. Sportsbooks believe that the Ravens will demolish the Cleveland Browns on Saturday, January 4, and win the AFC North Division.

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are viewed in a similar light as they host the Carolina Panthers. The Bucs (-900) are the second largest favorites of the week and can sew up the NFC South Division with a victory over the worst defense in the NFL.

The Cincinnati Bengals (+130) vs. Pittsburgh Steelers (+110) has plenty of postseason ramifications and are tight in their odds for the game. Steelers have locked up a Playoff berth, but the Bengals are still fighting for a spot. One more noteworthy matchup with tight odds are the Buffalo Bills (-125) at New England Patriots (+105). If the Patriots lose, then they will lock up the #1 pick in the 2025 NFL Draft.

NFL Week 18 Predictions

Let’s take a look at the NFL odds for every matchup in Week 18 and find our best bets for the last weekend of the regular season.

Cleveland Browns vs. Baltimore Ravens Odds

The Baltimore Ravens enter Week 18 as massive 18-point favorites, which is one of the largest spreads of the entire season. Baltimore clinched a playoff spot weeks ago, but they still have a chance to secure the AFC North title if they take care of business here against the Cleveland Browns. A Pittsburgh loss to Cincinnati would also do the trick.

There isn’t a whole lot to say about this one. Baltimore has it all to play for, while Cleveland is just playing out the string. It’s really just a matter of whether the Ravens can cover the monster spread. Baltimore could take their foot off the gas early if they jump out to a sizable early lead, and the Browns’ offense certainly isn’t equipped to stage any sort of a dramatic comeback.

Anything can happen, but I’m having a really hard time pulling the trigger on the favored Ravens to cover the 18 points here. Cleveland to cover is probably the safer route, though there’s truly nothing safe about it.

Betting Trends:

• The Ravens are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games as home favorites.
• The Browns are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games against AFC opponents.
• The total has gone under in 4 of Baltimore’s last 5 games.

Predictions:

• Spread: Browns +18 (-112) – Not a safe bet, but I think they can cover it.
• Moneyline: Ravens (-1800) – If you’re looking for a safe parlay anchor, this is it.
• Total: Under 41.5 (-112) – The Browns’ offense is unlikely to score much, and Baltimore might take their foot off the gas late.

Final Score Prediction: Ravens 30, Browns 13
Best Bet: Browns +18 (-112)

Cincinnati Bengals vs. Pittsburgh Steelers Odds

This AFC North rivalry has plenty at stake, as the Cincinnati Bengals still have an outside shot at the playoffs. Cincinnati enters as the favorite, with everything still on the line. The Bengals remain in contention for an AFC Wild Card spot, while the Pittsburgh Steelers’ recent struggles have raised concerns about their form. Pittsburgh is already into the playoffs, but they’re coming into this one riding a 3-game losing streak. Cincy has won 4 straight, though they’ll need some help from other games in order to punch a postseason ticket.

The Bengals escaped with a win over Denver last week in overtime to keep their playoff dreams alive. If the Bengals had a record better than 8-8, Joe Burrow might be generating serious MVP buzz. The former Bayou Bengal has been on an electrifying pace all season, racking up over 4,600 passing yards, 42 touchdowns, and just 8 interceptions. Back in December, he lit up the Steelers with a 300-yard, 3-touchdown performance, and since October 27th, he’s thrown for at least 250 yards in every game. Burrow’s consistency and production have been nothing short of spectacular.

The Steelers could be looking at a quick playoff exit if they don’t find their rhythm soon. Russell Wilson’s performance has cooled off after his red-hot start, and Pittsburgh’s run game has struggled to gain any traction. While they’ve faced a tough schedule, things won’t get any easier this week. It’s time for the Steelers to step up if they want to avoid being a one-and-done playoff team.

This game could truly go either way, but it’s hard to overlook how well the Bengals are playing right now. If Joe Burrow is at the top of his game, they have the firepower to not only win but also cover the spread, even on the road.

Betting Trends:

• The Bengals are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 road games.
• The Steelers are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games as home underdogs.
• The total has gone over in 5 of Cincinnati’s last 7 games.

Predictions:

• Spread: Bengals -2 (-108) – With Joe Burrow playing at an MVP level, Cincinnati is the more reliable bet.
• Moneyline: Bengals (-130) – Expect a close game, but the Bengals should pull it out late.
• Total: Over 48 (-108) – Both teams have shown the ability to score in bunches recently.

Final Score Prediction: Bengals 31, Steelers 23
Best Bet: Bengals -2 (-108)

New Orleans Saints vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers Odds

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are heavy favorites at home as they look to close out the season in style. With the NFC South title on the line, Tampa Bay will have to go all-out in this one. The New Orleans Saints, meanwhile, are just looking to play spoiler as they wrap up a disastrous season. Remember when the Saints scored about 100 points amid a 2-0 start? That feels like eons ago.

Tampa Bay is 9-7, but they haven’t officially clinched a playoff spot. A win in this one would lock up the division. A loss combined with an Atlanta Falcons victory could knock the Bucs out of the postseason altogether As you can see, the 13.5-point spread indicates the Bucs should approach this game with plenty of motivation and focus.

I think a Bucs cover here is fairly likely given the way the Saints have struggled to put points on the board since Derek Carr went down.

Betting Trends:

• The Saints are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games.
• The Buccaneers are 6-3 ATS in their last 9 games as double-digit favorites.
• The total has gone under in 6 of Tampa Bay’s last 8 games.

Predictions:

• Spread: Buccaneers -13.5 (-112) – Even with some late-game rest for starters, Tampa should have no trouble covering this hefty spread.
• Moneyline: Buccaneers (-900) – The Saints don’t have the firepower to pull the upset.
• Total: Under 43.5 (-110) – The Saints’ offense won’t score much, and Tampa is unlikely to run up the score.

Final Score Prediction: Buccaneers 27, Saints 10
Best Bet: Buccaneers -13.5 (-112)

New York Giants vs. Philadelphia Eagles Odds

The Philadelphia Eagles have already secured the NFC East title, while the New York Giants are focused on draft positioning. However, the Giants’ quest for the No. 1 pick got a bit more complicated after their surprising 45-33 upset win over the Colts last week. Meanwhile, the Eagles may face a quarterback dilemma. Jalen Hurts is recovering from a concussion, and Kenny Pickett is dealing with a rib injury. If neither is ready to play, Philly might have to turn to Ian Book under center.

The tight spread suggests that oddsmakers aren’t confident Hurts or Pickett will be available for this game. With their playoff spot already locked in, the Eagles have little reason to rush either player back, even though their final seeding has yet to be determined.

Back the Eagles in this one—especially with the Giants seemingly focused on tanking.

Betting Trends:

• The Giants are 3-0 ATS in their last 3 games.
• The Eagles are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games as home favorites.
• The total has gone under in 4 of the last 5 meetings between these teams.

Predictions:

• Spread: Eagles -3 (-105) – Even with uncertainty at QB, Philly’s defense and run game should be enough to edge the Giants.
• Moneyline: Eagles (-142) – A must-win for seeding purposes, the Eagles will find a way to get it done.
• Total: Under 37.5 (-110) – Both offenses are dealing with injuries, and the defenses will dominate.

Final Score Prediction: Eagles 21, Giants 16
Best Bet: Eagles -3 (-105)

Chicago Bears vs. Green Bay Packers Odds

The Green Bay Packers are still chasing a wild card spot, and they couldn’t have asked for a better matchup in their home finale. The Chicago Bears have been among the league’s most inconsistent teams, and Caleb Williams will face an uphill battle against a Packers defense that has been stifling at Lambeau. Josh Jacobs has carried the Packers’ offense all season, and he’ll have a chance to pad his stats against a porous Bears run defense.

The Bears’ season has been over for a while, but the Packers are still fighting for playoff positioning in the NFC. That said, the Packers may not play their starters for the full game, with players like Jacobs potentially seeing reduced workloads as the team looks ahead to the playoffs in two weeks.

Chicago may not have much on the line, but they could keep this one close if the Packers don’t approach it with full intensity. A 10-point spread feels steep for a game that lacks significant stakes for either side. Betting on the Bears to cover, even at Lambeau, seems like a solid play.

Betting Trends:

• The Bears are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 road games.
• The Packers are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games against NFC North opponents.
• The total has gone under in 7 of Green Bay’s last 9 home games.

Predictions:

• Spread: Bears +10 (-110) – Maybe the Bears can close their miserable season in respectable fashion by covering in a tough spot on the road.
• Moneyline: Packers (-455) – A safe play for parlays.
• Total: Under 41 (-108) – Chicago’s offense won’t contribute much to the scoreboard.

Final Score Prediction: Packers 27, Bears 20
Best Bet: Under 41 (-108)

Buffalo Bills vs. New England Patriots Odds

The Buffalo Bills narrowly escaped with a win over the New England Patriots just 2 weeks ago, and they’ll look to complete the series sweep on the road in Week 18. Buffalo is locked into the No. 2 seed in the AFC playoffs, and the only thing yet to be determined is their opponent in the Wild Card Round. The Patriots, meanwhile, are still in the running to finish with the worst record and the top pick in the upcoming draft.

There isn’t much reason to think the Bills will take this game too seriously, which is why they’re only favored by a couple of points in this one. Even if Josh Allen gets the start, there’s a pretty good chance we see Mitchell Trubisky take the majority of the snaps for Buffalo. The Patriots have shown good fight in recent weeks, though, and I think there’s value in taking New England to pick up the win at home.

It’s not the most comfortable wager, but I like a flier on the New England moneyline at +105.

Betting Trends:

• The Bills are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games.
• The Patriots are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games on the road.
• The total has gone under in 8 of the last 10 meetings between these teams.

Predictions:

• Spread: Patriots +2 (-108) – New England against a bunch of Buffalo backups is a solid bet as a home ‘dog.
• Moneyline: Patriots (+105) – Why not take a shot on the Pats at plus-money odds?
• Total: Under 38 (-108) – Points will be at a premium in this defensive battle.

Final Score Prediction: Patriots 14, Bills 10
Best Bet: Under 38 (-108)

Carolina Panthers vs. Atlanta Falcons Odds

The Atlanta Falcons can clinch the NFC South with a win combined with a Bucs loss to the Saints, and they’re heavy home favorites against a Carolina Panthers team that has been far more competitive than expected in recent weeks. Carolina has nothing to play for at this point, but they’ve managed to keep games close against playoff-bound teams like Tampa Bay and Philadelphia in recent outings.

The Falcons are 1-1 since replacing Kirk Cousins with Michael Penix Jr. a couple of weeks ago. Penix has predictably struggled since taking over, which isn’t a huge surprise considering his lack of experience at the NFL level. He completed just 19 of his 35 passes for 223 yards along with a touchdown and an interception in last week’s 30-24 loss to Washington. Bijan Robinson carried the offense, with a pair of TDs and 90 yards rushing in an efficient effort.

Given Penix’s issues and Carolina’s recent resurgent play, I think this is another opportunity to bet on the underdog. I don’t think the Panthers are a great bet to win, but they’re clearly capable of covering the 8-point spread against a Falcons team that hasn’t looked all that overpowering for the majority of the campaign.

Betting Trends:

• The Panthers are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games.
• The Falcons are 3-5 ATS as home favorites this season.
• The total has gone over in 4 of Carolina’s last 6 road games.

Predictions:

• Spread: Panthers +8 (-110) – Atlanta should win, but Carolina’s feistiness will keep it within a touchdown.
• Moneyline: Falcons (-440) – Atlanta won’t slip up at home with the division on the line.
• Total: Over 48 (-112) – This game could turn into a surprising shootout.

Final Score Prediction: Falcons 31, Panthers 27
Best Bet: Panthers +8 (-110)

Washington Commanders vs. Dallas Cowboys Odds

The Washington Commanders are still alive in the playoff race, while the Dallas Cowboys are playing out the string after officially being eliminated from postseason contention a few weeks back. Jayden Daniels has been a revelation for Washington since taking over at QB, while Dallas has shown occasional flashes of life with Cooper Rush under center.

Even though this game is in Arlington, it’s puzzling why the spread is so narrow. Washington has already secured a playoff spot, and head coach Dan Quinn has made it clear they’re going all-out to improve their seeding. Meanwhile, Dallas has nothing left to play for—other than perhaps the satisfaction of spoiling the party for their NFC East rivals.

I wouldn’t be surprised if the spread continues to shift in Washington’s favor as kickoff approaches. This feels like a one-sided matchup, and I’d be shocked if the Commanders don’t come away with an emphatic, convincing win.

Betting Trends:

• The Commanders are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games.
• The Cowboys are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games as underdogs.
• The total has gone over in 3 of Washington’s last 4 home games.

Predictions:

• Spread: Commanders -4.5 (-112) – Washington’s urgency and QB play give them the edge here.
• Moneyline: Commanders (-225) – A safe parlay addition.
• Total: Over 44 (-108) – Both offenses are capable of moving the ball in this one.

Final Score Prediction: Commanders 37, Cowboys 14
Best Bet: Commanders -4.5 (-112)

Houston Texans vs. Tennessee Titans Odds

The Houston Texans and Tennessee Titans will square off in a divisional battle with nothing but pride on the line. Tennessee came up short in last week’s loss to Jacksonville, and Houston fell to Baltimore in embarrassing fashion. While the Texans have already clinched the AFC South, their seeding is still in play. The Titans, meanwhile, are just 3-13 and firmly in the running for one of the top picks in this year’s draft.

This is easily one of the least appealing games on the slate. With Davis Mills likely taking most of the snaps, Houston shouldn’t necessarily be favored on the road. Back Tennessee to close out their season with a home win.

Betting Trends:

• The Texans are 6-3 ATS in their last 9 games.
• The Titans are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 divisional matchups.
• The total has gone under in 5 of Houston’s last 7 games.

Predictions:

• Spread: Titans +1 (-108) – I’m not betting on Davis Mills as a road favorite, and neither should you.
• Moneyline: Titans (+100) – Take a flier on Tennessee as a plus-money underdog at home.
• Total: Under 38.5 (-112) – Neither offense has been particularly explosive in recent weeks.

Final Score Prediction: Titans 13, Texans 7
Best Bet: Titans ML (+100)

Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Indianapolis Colts Odds

Here we go—another meaningless AFC South showdown! The Indianapolis Colts were embarrassed on the road by the struggling Giants last week, while the Jacksonville Jaguars managed a win over the Titans. Neither team inspires much confidence, but I’ll lean toward the Colts to win and cover at home.

Betting Trends:

• The Jaguars are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 road games.
• The Colts are 4-6 ATS as home favorites this season.
• The total has gone over in 3 of the last 4 meetings between these teams.

Predictions:

• Spread: Colts -4.5 (-112) – ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
• Moneyline: Colts (-205) – I’ll side with Indy simply because they’re at home.
• Total: Over 44.5 (-112) – Expect a fair number of points on both sides.

Final Score Prediction: Colts 21, Jaguars 14
Best Bet: Colts ML (-205)

Kansas City Chiefs vs. Denver Broncos Odds

The Kansas City Chiefs are locked into the top seed in the AFC and could opt to rest some starters in this one. The Denver Broncos have exceeded expectations this season under Sean Payton, and this game could serve as a statement opportunity against the AFC’s best team. Still, Kansas City’s defense will be tough to crack, especially considering Kansas City has been among the stingiest units in football all season.

The Broncos are fighting for their postseason lives. Kansas City will start Carson Wentz in place of Patrick Mahomes—a welcome relief for Broncos fans. With a win, Denver can clinch the No. 7 seed and sneak into the playoffs, an unexpected turn for a team that started the season with no real aspirations of contending.

With Denver playing for it all, I like them to win easily at home.

Betting Trends:

• The Chiefs are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games.
• The Broncos are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games as underdogs.
• The total has gone under in 6 of Denver’s last 8 games.

Predictions:

• Spread: Broncos -10.5 (-108) – Denver should be able to cover this large spread at home against a KC team starting Wentz.
• Moneyline: Broncos (-575) – Easy win here with KC playing for nothing.
• Total: Under 40 (-112) – Points will be hard to come by in this one.

Final Score Prediction: Broncos 24, Chiefs 10
Best Bet: Broncos -10.5 (-108)

Miami Dolphins vs. New York Jets Odds

The Miami Dolphins are clinging to faint playoff hopes as they hit the road to face the New York Jets in what could be a frigid New York afternoon. Miami pulled off a victory against Cleveland last week, while the Jets suffered another tough loss in Buffalo. Both teams are dealing with injuries and inconsistent quarterback play, which could make this a low-scoring affair.

Tua Tagovailoa’s struggles in cold weather are well-documented, which might help keep this game closer than expected. Still, it’s hard to imagine Miami dropping a must-win game on the road, even if the Jets are playing for pride in what could be Aaron Rodgers’ final outing.

Betting Trends:

• The Dolphins are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 road games.
• The Jets are 6-4 ATS in their last 10 games as underdogs.
• The total has gone under in 4 of Miami’s last 5 games.

Predictions:

• Spread: Dolphins -1 (-108) – Miami should win to keep their faint playoff hopes alive.
• Moneyline: Dolphins (-115) – This is a pretty safe bet, even given Tua’s history and his hip injury.
• Total: Under 39 (-112) – Neither team has been lighting up the scoreboard.

Final Score Prediction: Dolphins 17, Jets 13
Best Bet: Under 39 (-112)

Los Angeles Chargers vs. Las Vegas Raiders Odds

The Los Angeles Chargers secured a playoff spot with an impressive road win in Foxborough last week. They can improve their seeding by leapfrogging Pittsburgh with a win and a Steelers loss in Week 18. Meanwhile, the Raiders’ back-to-back wins against weak competition may have cost them a shot at top draft prospects like Shedeur Sanders or Cam Ward with a higher pick.

I wouldn’t be surprised if the Chargers play their starters for most of the game, given they still have something to play for. However, they might pull their key players late if the game gets out of hand. That said, the spread feels too small considering how dreadful Las Vegas has been for most of the year. I like the Bolts to win and cover on the road.

Betting Trends:

• The Chargers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games.
• The Raiders are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 home games.
• The total has gone under in 5 of Las Vegas’ last 7 games.

Predictions:

• Spread: Chargers -4.5 (-112) – LA has more to play for and should take care of business.
• Moneyline: Chargers (-192) – Their playoff hopes stay alive with a big road win.
• Total: Under 41.5 (-115) – Points could be at a premium in this one.

Final Score Prediction: Chargers 24, Raiders 13
Best Bet: Chargers -4.5 (-112)

Seattle Seahawks vs. Los Angeles Rams Odds

The 10-6 Los Angeles Rams secured the NFC West title last week and are on track to finish as the No. 3 seed in the NFC playoffs. Meanwhile, the Seattle Seahawks have already been eliminated from postseason contention. It remains to be seen whether Geno Smith or Sam Howell will get the start for Seattle in their final game of the 2024 season.

The Rams will start Jimmy Garoppolo in place of Matthew Stafford, which explains why Seattle is favored by nearly a touchdown on the road in this otherwise meaningless game. Garoppolo has a proven track record of winning as a starter, but it’ll be interesting to see what he brings to the table in his first start for the Rams.

I like LA to cover in a game that doesn’t carry much weight for either team. Jimmy Garoppolo has plenty of motivation as he plays to showcase his value for a potential job next year. Even without key players like Cooper Kupp, Kyren Williams, and Puka Nacua, Garoppolo has a chance to make an impression in this starting opportunity.

Betting Trends:

• The Seahawks are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games as favorites.
• The Rams are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games.
• The total has gone over in 4 of Seattle’s last 5 home games.

Predictions:

• Spread: Rams +6.5 (-108) – I’m happy to take a shot on Los Angeles to win outright at home.
• Moneyline: Rams (+210) – Seattle shouldn’t be such a heavy favorite on the road.
• Total: Over 38 (-108) – This game has sneaky shootout potential, even if it’s mostly backups.

Final Score Prediction: Rams 30, Seahawks 27
Best Bet: Rams ML (+210)

San Francisco 49ers vs. Arizona Cardinals Odds

The San Francisco 49ers and Arizona Cardinals have both been eliminated from playoff contention, setting the stage for what could be a forgettable game. That said, the Cardinals have been a tough team at home this season, and I’ll back them to close out 2024 with a win against a banged-up and downtrodden 49ers squad.

Betting Trends:

• The 49ers are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 road games.
• The Cardinals are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games as home favorites.
• The total has gone over in 4 of San Francisco’s last 6 games.

Predictions:

• Spread: Cardinals -4 (-108) – Arizona is the healthier team and should have no problem covering at home.
• Moneyline: Cardinals (-198) – They’re the better team at this stage of the season.
• Total: Over 42.5 (-108) – Both defenses are vulnerable, and this game could feature plenty of scoring.

Final Score Prediction: Cardinals 31, 49ers 20
Best Bet: Cardinals -4 (-108)

Minnesota Vikings vs. Detroit Lions Odds

The final game of the week is undoubtedly the most compelling. The Detroit Lions and Minnesota Vikings, both sitting at 14-2, will face off on Sunday night to determine who secures the NFC’s top seed and a coveted first-round bye. The stakes couldn’t be higher, as the losing team will be thrust into action during the wild-card round. With everything on the line, this matchup promises to deliver plenty of drama.

Minnesota has been the most surprising team in the league this season, with Sam Darnold leading the charge. Riding a nine-game win streak, the Vikings have been red-hot heading into this pivotal matchup. However, one of their two losses this year came at the hands of the Lions in a thrilling 31-29 game at home just a couple of months ago. This rematch is shaping up to be another nail-biter.

Even with a slew of injuries, it’s hard to bet against the Lions. They pulled off an impressive come-from-behind victory in Santa Clara last week, showcasing their resilience. You can count on Dan Campbell to have plenty of tricks up his sleeve for what’s undoubtedly the biggest game of the year so far. The Lions will be ready for the challenge.

I’m not betting against the Lions at home either. Minnesota will undoubtedly bring their best effort, but I’m backing Detroit to cover on their home turf and clinch both the NFC North and the top seed.

Betting Trends:

• The Vikings are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games.
• The Lions are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 home games.
• The total has gone over in 4 of Detroit’s last 5 games.

Predictions:

• Spread: Lions -2.5 (-120) – Detroit’s home-field advantage will help them edge out the Vikings.
• Moneyline: Lions (-148) – They’ve been the best team in the NFC all season, and this game will prove it.
• Total: Over 56.5 (-110) – Neither team is likely to stop the other consistently.

Final Score Prediction: Lions 38, Vikings 34
Best Bet: Lions -2.5 (-120)

Week 18 Best Bets

After a thorough breakdown of this week’s games, here are my three favorite bets to target:

• Detroit Lions -2.5 (-120): The Lions have been dominant at home and will be highly motivated with the division title on the line. I expect Detroit to get the job done in a shootout.
• Denver Broncos -10.5 (-108): Denver has it all to play for, while KC will be starting Carson Wentz.
• Washington Commanders -4.5 (-112): Washington will thrash Dallas in an attempt to improve their playoff seed.

A $100 parlay on these three bets would pay out approximately $570 if all three hit. Each of these bets provides value individually, but combining them into a Week 18 NFL parlay could lead to a larger payday.