Vikings at Saints Best Pick, Prediction and Odds

Two teams whose games averaged about 40 points last season, and a total of 44.5. Give me the under, and leave the spread alone.

Minnesota visits New Orleans on Sunday 11 October, kickoff 1:00 PM ET. First the record. Our last graded card, Week 3, went 3-3: Cleveland +2.5, the under 42 in Panthers at Browns and the Giants -3 won; New England +3, the over 39.5 in Titans at Giants and the under 43.5 in Raiders at Saints lost. That last one was a Saints game, it finished 35-27, and it is the reason this page argues its under carefully. At one unit a bet and prices under even money, 3-3 is a fraction of a unit down. Week 4 is still to play.

How the card works, same as every week. My number is last season’s scoring for and against, 17 games each, turned into a margin, with two points for the home side. I bet a side or a total only when the market sits three points or more away from that number. One unit on every bet.

Under 44.5 (-110)

Minnesota scored 20.2 a game last season and allowed 19.6. New Orleans scored 18.0 and allowed 22.5. Run each offence against the other defence and I land on 40, four and a half points under the market.

Is 44.5 too high for these two? The history says yes. New Orleans games went under 44.5 in 13 of 17 last season and averaged 40.5 points. Minnesota games went under in 9 of 17 and averaged 39.8. Neither offence scored more than 21 a game.

Worst price to bet: under 43.5 (-110). At 43 the gap drops under three and I pass.

Concede it properly

This season has not looked like last. New Orleans has played three games and two went well over: 31-30 at Detroit and 35-27 at home to Las Vegas, 61 and 62 points. The Saints have allowed 27.7 a game, five more than last season. We took the under in that Raiders game a week ago and it was not close.

Minnesota’s games have gone 61, 12 and 39. The 39-22 home win over Green Bay was the shootout; the 9-3 win at Chicago was the opposite. Averaged, that is 37.3 points a game, under the number.

Personally, I think the Saints’ three games are the whole case against this bet, and they are three games against seventeen. Last season New Orleans topped 44.5 four times all year. Give me the under.

The side, and why it is a pass

Minnesota went 9-8 last season and finished plus 11. New Orleans went 6-11 and finished minus 77. Per game that is plus 0.6 against minus 4.5, a gap of 5.2 points before home field and 3.2 with it.

The books cannot agree on who is favoured. DraftKings and BetUS have Minnesota -1.5; William Hill has New Orleans -1.5. The median is Vikings -1.5, and my number is Vikings by 3.2. That is a gap of 1.7 points, well inside three. No bet.

This season leans Minnesota further. The Vikings are 3-0 and plus 30, with wins over Green Bay, Chicago and 23-16 at Tampa Bay. The Saints are 1-2, with a 24-17 win at Baltimore between the two losses. I would rather have Minnesota than New Orleans, and at a price under three I would not bet either.

Where the price stands

This is an early line, read 13 days before kickoff. Three US sportsbooks, read 28 September and last posted on 13 September, the first Sunday of the season. DraftKings and BetUS hang 44.5 at -110, William Hill 43.5 at -115. DraftKings is the reference line; shop around, because a total posted on the first Sunday of the season has had three weeks of scoring to move since.

These two did not meet last season, and our game records begin in 2025, so there is no head-to-head in this card.

The moneyline

DraftKings has Minnesota -125 and New Orleans +105. William Hill has New Orleans -125 and Minnesota -105. Two books, two different favourites, and a coin flip either way. I will not pay juice to guess at it.

What would change it

A total that has already dropped to 43 or lower takes the bet away. A move up past 45 only makes it better. The full version of this page re-reads every book in the week of the game.

Give me the under 44.5, one unit, and nothing on the side.

The call comes from last season’s 17-game rates and the prices read on 28 September. The rest of the Week 5 card is on our NFL predictions page.

Minnesota Vikings at New Orleans Saints, Sunday 11 October 2026, 1:00 PM ET. Prices: median of three US sportsbooks via Nucleus, read 28 September 2026, 15:10 UTC, as last posted on 13 September. Results for 2025 and 2026: Nucleus.