Oilers at Ducks Best Pick, Prediction and Odds

The Ducks won 24 of 41 at home last season. Our number makes them 56.1%: bet Anaheim at -104 or better, Edmonton at +158 or better.

Our number is 56.1% for the Anaheim Ducks and 43.9% for the Edmonton Oilers. No line had been posted for this game as of 28 September 2026. A side becomes a bet when the market, with its margin removed, sits at least 5 points below our number for it.

How the number is built

The method is one clause: our home win chance is the average of the home team’s 2025-26 home win rate and the visitor’s 2025-26 road loss rate, with a win in overtime or a shootout counted as a win.

The Ducks went 24-13-4 at home last season: 24 wins, 13 regulation losses and 4 losses after regulation. That is a 58.5% home win rate over 41 games. The Oilers went 19-16-6 on the road, so they lost 22 of 41, a 53.7% road loss rate. The average of 58.5 and 53.7 is 56.1 for the Ducks, and 43.9 for the Oilers.

Both halves point the same way. Anaheim won more than half at home, and Edmonton lost more than half on the road.

It is a new season. Rosters change over a summer, and nothing on this page measures what changed. The 2026-27 season opened on 29 September, and no game from it is in these figures.

The Ducks at home, the Oilers on the road

At home, the Ducks scored 3.54 goals a game and allowed 3.49. The Oilers on the road scored 3.39 and allowed 3.15. The home side scored 0.15 a game more and allowed 0.34 more.

The goals favour Edmonton more than the wins do. Anaheim’s home win rate came with a goal margin close to zero, and the method counts only the wins.

The Ducks were a different team away: 19-20-2 on the road, a 46.3% win rate. The Oilers went 22-14-5 at home.

Across the full season the Ducks finished 43-33-6 with 92 points and were outscored by 15 goals, scoring 3.33 a game and allowing 3.51. They won 43 games with a negative goal margin, and they went 24-6-6 in one-goal games. In the playoffs they beat the Edmonton Oilers 4-2, then lost 4-2 to the Vegas Golden Knights.

The Oilers finished 41-30-11 with 93 points, one more than Anaheim, and outscored opponents by 13 goals, scoring 3.44 a game and allowing 3.28. Their one playoff series was the 4-2 loss to the Ducks.

In the 2025-26 regular season the teams met three times and Edmonton won two, both at home: 7-4 on 26 January and 4-2 on 28 March. Anaheim won 6-5 at home on 25 February. Then Anaheim won the playoff series 4-2. Nine games, split both ways, prove nothing about a tenth.

The price

There is no line yet, so the page states the prices at which this becomes a bet.

The Ducks need the market to rate them at 51.1% or less, with the margin removed. At -104 or better, that holds whatever Edmonton is priced at. The Oilers need 38.9% or less, which +158 or better guarantees.

Our number makes Anaheim a favourite by 6.1 points over even. A Ducks bet needs a price near even money, and -104 is the break point.

Pick: Ducks at -104 or better, Oilers at +158 or better

Our number is 56.1% for Anaheim. With no line posted, the call is the pair of prices above. Between them, pass.

It rests on 82 games from last season: 41 at home for the Ducks and 41 on the road for the Oilers.

What changes it

The price. The full page re-reads the line on the day of the game. A Ducks price slightly worse than -104 may still qualify once the book’s margin is taken out, and that check is made against the posted pair.

The summer is the other thing. A season of home and road results says how these teams played in 2025-26. Nothing on this page says who is in either lineup on 7 October. Check the lineups before you bet.

Oilers at Ducks, Wednesday 7 October, 10:00 PM ET, Honda Center. Results: ESPN, read 28 September 2026 (2025-26 regular season and playoffs). No line posted as of 28 September 2026. Nothing here states who is available.