Predators at Canadiens Best Pick, Prediction and Odds

We make Montreal 58.5% to beat Nashville. The Canadiens are a bet at -115 or better, the Predators at +174 or better.

No line had been posted for this game when we read the market on 28 September 2026. So this page gives our number and the prices at which it turns into a bet. Our number is 58.5% for the Montreal Canadiens and 41.5% for the Nashville Predators. A side is a bet when the market’s figure sits at least 5 points below ours.

How the number is built

The method is one clause: our home win chance is the average of the home team’s 2025-26 home win rate and the visitor’s 2025-26 road loss rate, with a win in overtime or a shootout counted as a win.

The Canadiens went 24-15-2 at home last season. That is 24 wins, 15 regulation losses and 2 losses after regulation, a 58.5% home win rate over 41 games. The Predators went 17-17-7 on the road, so they lost 24 of 41, also a 58.5% road loss rate. The two halves are the same number, so the average is 58.5 for the Canadiens and 41.5 for the Predators.

It is a new season. Rosters change over a summer, and nothing on this page measures what changed. The evidence in hand is last season: 41 home games for Montreal and 41 road games for Nashville.

The Canadiens at home, the Predators on the road

Montreal won 24 games at home and 24 on the road. Its road record, 24-9-8, had fewer regulation losses than its home record, 24-15-2. So home ice did not lift the Canadiens’ win rate at all last season, and the method’s home half is no stronger than their road half. At home they scored 3.34 goals a game and allowed 3.10.

Nashville on the road scored 2.93 a game and allowed 3.34, a deficit of 0.41 a game. Seven of its 24 road losses came after regulation. At home it was 21-17-3, four more wins than away.

Across the full season the Canadiens finished 48-24-10 with 106 points and outscored opponents by 0.33 goals a game (3.45 scored, 3.12 allowed). In one-goal games they went 23-6-10, which is 23 wins in 39. In the playoffs they beat the Tampa Bay Lightning 4-3 and the Buffalo Sabres 4-3, then lost 4-1 to the Carolina Hurricanes.

The Predators finished 38-34-10 with 86 points, were outscored by 0.27 a game (3.01 scored, 3.28 allowed), and played no playoff games.

The teams met twice in 2025-26, and Montreal won both: 3-2 in overtime at home on 16 October, and 4-1 in Nashville on 28 March. Two games prove nothing.

Pick: Canadiens at -115 or better, Predators at +174 or better

With no line posted, the pick is a pair of prices. Our 58.5% for the Canadiens, less the 5-point threshold, is 53.5%. A price of -115 or better (-110, -105 and so on) puts them at or below that, and Montreal is a bet. Our 41.5% for the Predators, less 5, is 36.5%. At +174 or better, Nashville is a bet. Anything between -115 on Montreal and +174 on Nashville is a pass.

Those are fair prices, with the margin taken out. A posted line carries a margin on both sides, so the posted pair has to be converted before it is compared. At -116 the Canadiens gap is 4.8 points, and at +173 the Predators gap is 4.9. Both are passes.

It rests on 82 games, 41 at home for the Canadiens and 41 on the road for the Predators, all from last season.

What changes it

The line. When a price is posted, the margin comes out of it, and the call is whatever side clears 5 points at that price, or a pass. The full page re-reads the line on the day.

The summer is the other thing. A season of home and road results says how these two teams played in 2025-26, and nothing on this page says who is in either lineup on 8 October. Check the lineups before you bet.

Predators at Canadiens, Thursday 8 October, 7:00 PM ET, Bell Centre. No line posted as of 28 September 2026. Results: ESPN, read 28 September 2026. Nothing here states who is available.