NHL
SpreadTotalMoneyNSH+1.5U 6.5+140MTL-1.5O 6.5-166
NHL · Thursday 8 October
Predators at Canadiens Best Pick, Prediction and Odds
No bet on the Canadiens or the Predators. Montreal becomes a bet at -112, Nashville at +171.
The Montreal Canadiens are -185 and the Nashville Predators +154 at DraftKings, which is a 62.2% chance for the Canadiens once the margin is removed. Our number gives the Canadiens 58.0%. The gap is 4.2 points toward the Predators. A side is a bet when the gap is 5 points or more, so this is a pass.
The call has not changed since this page first went up on 29 September. No line was posted then, and the call was the Canadiens at -115 or better or the Predators at +174 or better. Neither price is on offer, so it is still no bet.
How the number is built
One clause: our home win chance is the average of the home team’s 2025-26 home win rate and the visitor’s 2025-26 road loss rate, where a win in overtime or a shootout counts as a win.
The Canadiens went 24-15-2 at home, meaning 24 wins, 15 regulation losses and 2 losses after regulation. That is a 58.5% home win rate over 41 games. The Predators went 17-16-7 on the road and lost 23 of 40, a 57.5% road loss rate. That leaves out their 4-0 loss to Pittsburgh in Stockholm on 16 November, played at a neutral site. The average is 58.0% for the Canadiens, which leaves 42.0% for the Predators.
The margin is the few points a book builds into both prices so that they add to more than 100%. At -185 and +154 the two prices add to 104.3%. Removed, it leaves the Canadiens at 62.2% and the Predators at 37.8%.
It is a new season. Rosters change over a summer, and this page has no measure of what changed. Last season is the only evidence in hand: 41 home games for the Canadiens and 40 road games for the Predators. No game from 2026-27 is in these figures.
The Canadiens at home, the Predators on the road
The Canadiens at home scored 3.34 goals a game and allowed 3.10. The Predators on the road scored 3.00 and allowed 3.33. Montreal outscored its visitors by 0.24 a game, and Nashville was outscored by 0.33 on the road.
The two halves sit a point apart. Montreal won 24 of 41 at home, 58.5%, and Nashville lost 23 of 40 away, 57.5%. The market goes further than either, by 4.2 points.
The Canadiens finished 48-24-10 with 106 points and outscored opponents by 27 goals, 0.33 a game. They beat the Tampa Bay Lightning 4-3 and the Buffalo Sabres 4-3 in the playoffs, then lost 4-1 to the Carolina Hurricanes. The Predators finished 38-34-10 with 86 points, were outscored by 22 goals, 0.27 a game, and missed the playoffs.
The teams met twice in 2025-26 and Montreal won both: 3-2 in overtime at home on 16 October and 4-1 at Nashville on 28 March. Two games prove nothing, and the method does not use them.
Pick: no bet
No bet on the moneyline. The gap is 4.2 points against a 5-point threshold.
The Canadiens opened at -198 and the Predators at +164, which put Montreal at 63.7%, a gap of 5.7 points toward Nashville. At the open, the Predators were a bet. The price has since shortened to +154, and the gap has closed to 4.2. Read on 7 October 2026 at 23:11 UTC, DraftKings via ESPN, the Canadiens were -185 and the Predators +154.
What changes it
A longer price on either side. The Predators become a bet at +171 or longer, whatever the Canadiens are priced at. The Canadiens need -112 or longer, a long way from -185.
A price is only one of the unknowns. This page states nothing about either lineup on 8 October. Check the lineups before you bet.
The total and the puck line
The total is 6.5, over +110 and under -130. The Canadiens’ games went over 6.5 in 44 of 82 and the Predators’ in 35 of 82. The Canadiens’ home games averaged 6.44 goals, the Predators’ road games 6.33.
The two over rates, 53.7% and 42.7%, average 48.2%. The over at +110 is priced at 45.7% with the margin removed, less than 3 points below our rate. That is short of 5. Pass on the total.
The puck line has the Canadiens -1.5 at +136 and the Predators +1.5 at -162. The Canadiens won by two goals or more in 25 of 82 games. The Predators lost by two or more in 26 of 82. Averaged, Montreal -1.5 lands 31.1% of the time against 40.7% priced, a gap of 9.6 points. Lean Predators +1.5 at -162. It stays a lean, because the moneyline is the one call this page bets.
Predators at Canadiens, Thursday 8 October, 7:00 PM ET, Bell Centre. Prices: DraftKings via ESPN, read 7 October 2026, 23:11 UTC. Results: ESPN, read 7 October 2026. Nothing here states who is available.