NHL
SpreadTotalMoneyPIT+1.5U 6.5+142WSH-1.5O 6.5-170
NHL · Wednesday 7 October
Penguins at Capitals Best Pick, Prediction and Odds
Our number gives the Penguins 5.5 points more than the price does. Take the Penguins at +138 or longer.
The Pittsburgh Penguins are +142 and the Washington Capitals -170 at DraftKings, which is a 39.6% chance for the Penguins once the margin is removed. Our number gives the Penguins 45.1%. The gap is 5.5 points, and a side is a bet when the gap is 5 points or more. When this page first went up on 29 September the call was the same, Penguins at +142, on the same two prices.
How the number is built
One clause: our home win chance is the average of the home team’s 2025-26 home win rate and the visitor’s 2025-26 road loss rate, where a win in overtime or a shootout counts as a win.
The Capitals went 25-11-5 at home, meaning 25 wins, 11 regulation losses and 5 losses after regulation. That is a 61.0% home win rate over 41 games. The Penguins went 21-12-8 on the road and lost 20 of 41, a 48.8% road loss rate. The average is 54.9% for the Capitals, 45.1% for the Penguins.
The margin is the few points a book builds into both prices so that they add to more than 100%. Removed from -170 and +142, it leaves the Capitals at 60.4% and the Penguins at 39.6%.
It is a new season. Rosters change over a summer, and this page has no measure of what changed. Last season is the only evidence in hand: 41 home games for the Capitals and 41 road games for the Penguins.
The Capitals at home, the Penguins on the road
The Capitals at home scored 3.39 goals a game and allowed 2.66. The Penguins on the road scored 3.49 and allowed 3.05. Pittsburgh scored 0.10 a game more on the road than Washington did at home. Washington’s edge was at the other end, 0.39 fewer allowed.
Washington was a different team away from home. Its road record was 18-19-4, seven fewer wins than at home. The method uses only the home half, the stronger one: a 61.0% win rate at home against 43.9% on the road. Pittsburgh went the other way, 21 wins on the road against 20 at home.
The Penguins finished 41-25-16 with 98 points and outscored opponents by 0.30 goals a game. Of their 82 games, 23 went past regulation. They lost their one playoff series, 4-2 to the Philadelphia Flyers. The Capitals finished 43-30-9 with 95 points, outscored opponents by 0.23 a game, and did not reach the playoffs.
The teams met three times in 2025-26. Pittsburgh won 5-3 at home on 6 November. Washington won the last two, 6-3 at Pittsburgh on 11 April and 3-0 at home on 12 April. Three games are a small sample, and the method does not use them.
Pick: Penguins +142
Penguins moneyline at +142. The gap is 5.5 points against a 5-point threshold.
That is half a point of room, and it rests on 82 games from last season. The Capitals opened at -162 and the Penguins at +136, which put Washington at 59.3% and left a gap of 4.4 points, a pass. Read on 6 October 2026 at 08:14 UTC, DraftKings via ESPN, the Capitals were -170 and the Penguins +142.
What changes it
A shorter price on the Penguins. With the Capitals at -170, the Penguins are still a bet at +138, a gap of 5.1 points. At +136, the opening price, the gap is 4.9 and the call is a pass. At +150 or longer the Penguins are a bet whatever the Capitals are priced at.
A price is only one of the unknowns. This page states nothing about either lineup on 7 October. Check the lineups before you bet.
The total and the puck line
The total is 6.5, over +114 and under -135. The Capitals’ games went over 6.5 in 34 of 82 and the Penguins’ in 47 of 82. The Capitals’ home games averaged 6.05 goals, the Penguins’ road games 6.54.
The two over rates, 41.5% and 57.3%, average 49.4%. The over at +114 is priced at 44.9% with the margin removed, 4.5 points away. Pass on the total.
The puck line has the Capitals -1.5 at +145 and the Penguins +1.5 at -175. The Capitals won by two goals or more in 30 of 82 games. The Penguins lost by two or more in 18 of 82. Averaged, Capitals -1.5 lands 29.3% of the time against 39.1% priced, which puts Penguins +1.5 at 70.7% against 60.9%. Our method is built for the moneyline, and the page’s pick stays there. The puck line points the same way, toward Pittsburgh.
Penguins at Capitals, Wednesday 7 October, 7:30 PM ET, Capital One Arena. Prices: DraftKings via ESPN, read 6 October 2026, 08:14 UTC. Results: ESPN, read 6 October 2026. Nothing here states who is available.