Blackhawks at Islanders Best Pick, Prediction and Odds

We make the Islanders 58.5% to beat Chicago. They are a bet at -115 or better, the Blackhawks at +174 or better.

No line had been posted for this game when we read the market on 28 September 2026. So this page gives our number and the prices at which it turns into a bet. Our number is 58.5% for the New York Islanders and 41.5% for the Chicago Blackhawks. A side is a bet when the market’s figure sits at least 5 points below ours.

How the number is built

The method is one clause: our home win chance is the average of the home team’s 2025-26 home win rate and the visitor’s 2025-26 road loss rate, with a win in overtime or a shootout counted as a win.

The Islanders went 22-17-2 at home last season. That is 22 wins, 17 regulation losses and 2 losses after regulation, a 53.7% home win rate over 41 games. The Blackhawks went 15-20-6 on the road, so they lost 26 of 41, a 63.4% road loss rate. The average of the two unrounded rates is 58.54. Our number is 58.5, and every price below is measured from it.

It is a new season. Rosters change over a summer, and nothing on this page measures what changed. The evidence in hand is last season: 41 home games for the Islanders and 41 road games for the Blackhawks.

The Islanders at home, the Blackhawks on the road

Most of our number comes from Chicago. Its 63.4% road loss rate is almost 10 points higher than the Islanders’ 53.7% home win rate. On the road the Blackhawks scored 2.59 goals a game and allowed 3.41, a deficit of 0.82 a game.

The Islanders’ home record is better than their home goals. They scored 2.93 a game at home and allowed 2.98, so they were outscored in their own building and still won 22 of 41. The full season shows why. They played 43 one-goal games and went 27-11-5 in them, which is 27 wins in 43. Over 82 games they finished 43-34-5 with 91 points while being outscored by 0.10 a game (2.84 scored, 2.94 allowed), and played no playoff games.

A record that runs ahead of its goals is the usual sign of close games that could have gone the other way. It is the main reason to think 58.5% is on the generous side for New York. The method does not adjust for it, and neither do we.

The Blackhawks finished 29-39-14 with 72 points and were outscored by 0.75 a game (2.60 scored, 3.35 allowed). Fourteen of their losses came after regulation. They played no playoff games either.

The teams met twice in 2025-26 and each won once in the other’s building. The Islanders won 3-2 in a shootout in Chicago on 30 December. Chicago won 4-3 on the Islanders’ ice on 24 March. Two games prove nothing.

Pick: Islanders at -115 or better, Blackhawks at +174 or better

With no line posted, the pick is a pair of prices. Our 58.5% for the Islanders, less the 5-point threshold, is 53.5%. A price of -115 or better (-110, -105 and so on) puts them at or below that, and the Islanders are a bet. Our 41.5% for the Blackhawks, less 5, is 36.5%. At +174 or better, Chicago is a bet. Anything between -115 on New York and +174 on Chicago is a pass.

Those are fair prices, with the margin taken out. A posted line carries a margin on both sides, so the posted pair has to be converted before it is compared. At -116 the Islanders gap is 4.8 points, and at +173 the Blackhawks gap is 4.9. Both are passes.

It rests on 82 games, 41 at home for the Islanders and 41 on the road for the Blackhawks, all from last season.

What changes it

The line. When a price is posted, the margin comes out of it, and the call is whatever side clears 5 points at that price, or a pass. The full page re-reads the line on the day.

The summer is the other thing. A season of home and road results says how these two teams played in 2025-26, and nothing on this page says who is in either lineup on 8 October. Check the lineups before you bet.

Blackhawks at Islanders, Thursday 8 October, 7:30 PM ET, UBS Arena. No line posted as of 28 September 2026. Results: ESPN, read 28 September 2026. Nothing here states who is available.